本文選題：埃博拉病毒病 + 傳染病��； 參考：《科學(xué)通報(bào)》2014年36期

【摘要】：2014年8月8日,世界衛(wèi)生組織宣布西非埃博拉病毒病疫情為"國際公共衛(wèi)生緊急事件".為評(píng)估西非埃博拉病毒病傳入中國的可能航線和風(fēng)險(xiǎn),本研究基于2013年10~12月的國際民用航空客運(yùn)數(shù)據(jù),分析疫情最嚴(yán)重的3個(gè)西非國家(幾內(nèi)亞、利比里亞和塞拉利昂)來華旅客傳入疫情的風(fēng)險(xiǎn).2013年第4季度從西非三國離境旅客為107113人次,其中3167人(3.0%)將主要通過法國、比利時(shí)和阿聯(lián)酋等8個(gè)國家的機(jī)場(chǎng)轉(zhuǎn)機(jī)后,抵達(dá)中國大陸.入境機(jī)場(chǎng)分布在北京、廣州、上海、杭州、武漢、重慶和大連,目的地城市為北京、廣州、武漢、上海、杭州、重慶和溫州等.假設(shè)2014年第4季度與2013年同期出行方式和人數(shù)不變,估計(jì)相關(guān)機(jī)場(chǎng)口岸平均每入境和查驗(yàn)國際旅客2235名就有1名來自疫區(qū)的旅客;預(yù)測(cè)2014年10~12月可能傳入的埃博拉病毒感染者旅客為0.54人次,其中利比里亞0.35人次、塞拉利昂0.16人次、幾內(nèi)亞0.03人次.若疫區(qū)發(fā)病水平上升或來華旅客人數(shù)減少,則傳入的感染者人數(shù)呈現(xiàn)相應(yīng)程度地增加或減少.研究表明,埃博拉病毒病疫情通過民航旅客傳入我國的可能性是存在的,但風(fēng)險(xiǎn)較低.我國可支持西非疫區(qū)國家開展離境病例篩查,及早發(fā)現(xiàn)病例,并有針對(duì)性地在我國重點(diǎn)入境口岸開展高風(fēng)險(xiǎn)人群的查驗(yàn),在主要目的地城市加強(qiáng)監(jiān)測(cè).
[Abstract]:On August 8, 2014, the World Health Organization declared Ebola in West Africa an international public health emergency. To assess the possible routes and risks of Ebola infection in West Africa into China, this study analyzed the three most affected West African countries (Guinea, Guinea) based on international civil air passenger data from October to December 2013. In the fourth quarter of 2013, there were 107113 passengers departing from three West African countries, of whom 3167 passengers will travel through the airports of France, Belgium and the United Arab Emirates, which will transfer mainly through the airports of eight countries, including France, Belgium and the United Arab Emirates. Arrive in mainland China. Airports are located in Beijing, Guangzhou, Shanghai, Hangzhou, Wuhan, Chongqing and Dalian. The destination cities are Beijing, Guangzhou, Wuhan, Shanghai, Hangzhou, Chongqing and Wenzhou. Assuming that the mode and number of passengers will remain the same in the fourth quarter of 2014 and the same period in 2013, it is estimated that an average of 1 passenger from the affected area for every 2235 international passengers entering and checking at the relevant airport ports; It is predicted that 0.54 people may be infected with Ebola from October to December 2014, including 0.35 in Liberia, 0.16 in Sierra Leone and 0.03 in Guinea. If the incidence level in the epidemic area rises or the number of visitors to China decreases, the number of infected persons in China increases or decreases to a corresponding extent. The study shows that the Ebola virus epidemic is possible to be introduced into our country through civil aviation passengers, but the risk is relatively low. Our country can support the West African countries to carry out the screening of departure cases, early detection of cases, and targeted at our key ports of entry to carry out high-risk population identification, and strengthen surveillance in the main destination cities.
【作者單位】： 中國疾病預(yù)防控制中心傳染病預(yù)防控制處 傳染病監(jiān)測(cè)預(yù)警中國疾病預(yù)防控制中心重點(diǎn)實(shí)驗(yàn)室;Centre
【基金】：國家科技重大專項(xiàng)(2012ZX10004-201) 衛(wèi)生行業(yè)科研專項(xiàng)(201202006) 傳染病監(jiān)測(cè)預(yù)警中國疾病預(yù)防控制中心重點(diǎn)實(shí)驗(yàn)室 加拿大衛(wèi)生研究院項(xiàng)目資助
【分類號(hào)】：R181.8

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