本文選題：氣象因素 + 死亡率��； 參考：《東南大學(xué)》2005年碩士論文

【摘要】： 目的:了解南京市的氣候變化趨勢(shì),探討各氣象因素對(duì)南京市居民死亡率和慢性支氣管炎發(fā)病的影響,并初步建立南京市的惡劣天氣預(yù)警預(yù)報(bào)模式。 方法:分析各氣象因素逐月變化情況,采用年距平分析1951-2003年南京市氣溫變化趨勢(shì)。從時(shí)間和人間上分析南京市近10的居民死亡情況。分層分析單個(gè)氣象因素特別是氣溫對(duì)南京市居民總死亡率、性別、年齡別死亡率和南京市前五大死因死亡率及慢性支氣管炎發(fā)病的影響。用多元逐步回歸分析建立南京市前五大死因日死亡率和慢性支氣管炎日發(fā)病數(shù)與各氣象因素間的回歸方程,初步探討建立南京市惡劣天氣的預(yù)警預(yù)報(bào)模式,待條件成熟時(shí),以健康危險(xiǎn)指數(shù)的形式向社會(huì)發(fā)布。 結(jié)果:近50年來(lái),20世紀(jì)90年代是南京的急劇增暖期,進(jìn)入21世紀(jì)后,氣溫有持續(xù)增高的趨勢(shì)。南京夏季悶熱,氣溫最高可達(dá)40℃,相對(duì)濕度80%,甚至可達(dá)90%以上,是典型的高溫、高濕“火爐”城市;冬季濕冷,最低溫度可達(dá)-8℃,相對(duì)濕度也在70%以上。死亡率冬季高于夏季,男性高于女性(t=5.65,P=0.0001)。在熱浪年1994年、1998年和2003年,夏季死亡率明顯偏高。 單因素分析結(jié)果顯示,在南京市夏季,當(dāng)日最高溫度達(dá)到一定溫度時(shí),隨著溫度的增高,死亡率會(huì)顯著增加,此臨界值在總死亡率為35℃,男女性之間略有差別,分別為35℃和34℃,老年死亡率為33℃,以疾病類型計(jì),呼吸系統(tǒng)、腦血管、心血管、損傷與中毒分別為33℃、35℃、35℃、34℃。冬季死亡率明顯增高的最低氣溫臨界值總死亡率為4℃,男女性之間略有差別,分別為4℃和2℃,老年死亡率為4℃,以疾病類型計(jì),呼吸系統(tǒng)、腦血管、損傷與中毒分別為1℃、7℃、6℃。多因素分析結(jié)果顯示,氣溫、氣濕、氣壓、風(fēng)速、日照、降水等對(duì)前5位死因死亡率都有影響,而且與前5天的上述因素密切相關(guān)。預(yù)報(bào)方程的預(yù)測(cè)正確率可達(dá)90%。慢性支氣管炎四季日發(fā)病數(shù)均與前1天溫差有顯著關(guān)系,且成反比,秋季和冬季的日發(fā)病數(shù)還與平均氣壓成正比,春季和夏季的日發(fā)病數(shù)與風(fēng)速也有關(guān)系。 結(jié)論:21世紀(jì)南京可能持續(xù)增溫;日最高溫度達(dá)35℃以上、日最低溫度達(dá)4℃以下都會(huì)使死亡率明顯增加;日死亡率不僅與當(dāng)日的天氣條件有關(guān),與前期幾天的天氣條件也密切相關(guān)。建立惡劣天氣健康危險(xiǎn)指數(shù)有助于降低死亡率,在保障居民健康中發(fā)揮一定的作用。穩(wěn)定的氣象條件不利于慢支發(fā)病,降溫和高氣壓是慢支發(fā)病的誘因之一。
[Abstract]:Objective: to understand the trend of climate change in Nanjing, to explore the effects of meteorological factors on the mortality of residents and the incidence of chronic bronchitis in Nanjing, and to establish an early warning model for bad weather in Nanjing.
Methods: the monthly change of meteorological factors was analyzed, and the annual temperature variation trend was analyzed in Nanjing city in 1951-2003 years. The death situation of nearly 10 residents in Nanjing was analyzed from time and world. The total mortality, sex, age mortality and the five leading causes of death in Nanjing were analyzed by the single meteorological factors, especially the temperature. The mortality and the influence of chronic bronchitis were analyzed by multiple stepwise regression analysis. The regression equation between the death rate of the five leading causes of death and the daily incidence of chronic bronchitis and the meteorological factors in Nanjing was established, and the early warning model for the establishment of bad weather in Nanjing was preliminarily discussed. Social release.
Results: in the last 50 years, 1990s was a rapid warming period in Nanjing. After entering twenty-first Century, the temperature had a tendency to increase continuously. In summer, the temperature of Nanjing was sultry and the temperature was up to 40, the relative humidity was 80%, or even more than 90%. It was a typical high temperature and high humidity "furnace" city; the winter was wet cold, the minimum temperature could reach -8, and the relative humidity was also 70%. The mortality rate in winter is higher than that in summer, and that in males is higher than that in females (t=5.65, P=0.0001). In summer of 1994, 1998 and 2003, the mortality rate in summer is obviously higher.
The results of single factor analysis showed that in the summer of Nanjing, the mortality rate increased significantly with the increase of temperature at a certain temperature at a certain temperature. The critical value at the total mortality rate was 35 degrees centigrade, and there was a slight difference between men and women at 35 and 34, and the mortality rate was 33 degrees centigrade, the respiratory system, the cerebrovascular, and the cardiovascular system were included in the disease type. The damage and poisoning were 33 C, 35, 35, 34. The total mortality of the lowest temperature of the winter mortality was 4 degrees C, and there was a slight difference between men and women, 4 and 2, and 4 degrees centigrade respectively. The respiratory system, cerebrovascular, injury and poisoning were 1, 7, 6, respectively. The temperature, air humidity, air pressure, wind speed, sunshine and precipitation have an influence on the death rate of the first 5 deaths, and are closely related to the above factors in the first 5 days. The prediction accuracy of the prediction equation can reach 90%. chronic bronchitis with a significant relationship with the temperature difference of the first 1 days, and the daily incidence of the autumn and winter is also associated with the average pressure. The daily incidence of spring and summer is also related to wind speed.
Conclusion: Nanjing may continue to increase the temperature in twenty-first Century. The daily maximum temperature is above 35 degrees C. The daily minimum temperature below 4 C will increase the mortality rate obviously. The daily mortality rate is not only related to the weather conditions of the day, but also closely related to the weather conditions in the early days. Stable weather conditions are not conducive to the onset of chronic bronchitis. Cooling and high air pressure are one of the inducements of chronic bronchitis.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：東南大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2005
【分類號(hào)】：R188

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