本文選題：空間分析 + 復(fù)雜適應(yīng)系統(tǒng)��； 參考：《云南師范大學(xué)》2009年碩士論文

【摘要】： 艾滋病在全世界的廣泛流行已成為嚴(yán)重的公共衛(wèi)生問題、社會問題、甚至是政治問題。目前,艾滋病正從高危人群向普通人群擴散,艾滋病的防治工作已迫在眉睫,急需多種手段并用來研究艾滋病的傳播與控制問題,以期提高的艾滋病防治效果。論文以艾滋病傳播的病理學(xué)特征和復(fù)雜適應(yīng)系統(tǒng)理論作為研究背景,通過艾滋病傳播的時空信息機理的研究,進而探索艾滋病性傳播途徑的動態(tài)模擬和表達技術(shù)。在學(xué)習(xí)和總結(jié)前人研究成果的基礎(chǔ)上,論文采用多Agent技術(shù)完成了艾滋病性傳播途徑的動態(tài)模擬和研究。主要研究內(nèi)容包括以下幾方面: 首先,論文闡述了艾滋病傳播的病理學(xué)原理,在分析比較醫(yī)學(xué)、公共衛(wèi)生學(xué)、社會學(xué)和生物學(xué)等不同學(xué)科的研究出發(fā)點和進展后,結(jié)合復(fù)雜適應(yīng)系統(tǒng)相關(guān)理論與方法,認為采用“自下而上”的多Agent模擬技術(shù)從信息科學(xué)入手,通過基于個體的微觀層次模擬可以很好地反映宏觀層次的整體“涌現(xiàn)”情況。因此,最終形成了基于多Agent技術(shù)來模擬艾滋病性傳播的研究思路。 然后,通過艾滋病性傳播的時空信息機理的研究,抽取除了相關(guān)影響因子,如性伴侶人數(shù)、是否使用安全套、自愿檢測趨向、人群流動強度等,為模型提供了基本的輸入?yún)?shù),完成了概念模型的初步設(shè)計。艾滋病性傳播的時空信息機理不僅是多Agent技術(shù)建模的理論基礎(chǔ),更是研究的現(xiàn)實依據(jù)和意義所在。 最后,通過基于多Agent技術(shù)模擬模型的搭建,采用Repast模擬平臺和Java高級編程語言,并利用ArcGIS軟件完成了研究區(qū)地圖數(shù)據(jù)的處理,最終實現(xiàn)了基于柵格空間的艾滋病性傳播模型與ArcGIS軟件的集成。研究成果具有一定的實用性,但由于時間和水平有限,論文未能完成基于GIS平臺的軟件平臺的構(gòu)建,這也是項目下一步研究的重點之一。
[Abstract]:The prevalence of AIDS in the world has become a serious public health problem, social problems, and even political problems. At present, AIDS is spreading from the high risk group to the general population. The prevention and treatment of AIDS is imminent. It is urgent to study the spread and control of AIDS by various means, in order to improve the effect of AIDS prevention and control. Based on the pathological characteristics of AIDS transmission and the theory of complex adaptive system, this paper explores the dynamic simulation and expression technology of AIDS transmission path through the study of the mechanism of space-time information of AIDS transmission. On the basis of studying and summarizing the previous research results, the dynamic simulation and research of HIV / AIDS transmission pathway were completed by using multi-Agent technology. The main research contents include the following aspects: firstly, the paper expounds the pathological principle of AIDS transmission, after analyzing the research starting point and progress of different subjects such as comparative medicine, public health, sociology and biology, etc. Combined with the theories and methods of complex adaptive systems, it is considered that the "bottom-up" multi-Agent simulation technology can reflect the "emergence" of the whole macro-level through individual-based micro-level simulation from the view of information science. Therefore, the idea of simulating AIDS sexual transmission based on multiple Agent technology was formed. Then, through the study of space-time information mechanism of AIDS sexual transmission, we extracted the related factors, such as the number of sexual partners, whether or not to use condoms. Voluntary detection trend and population flow intensity provide the basic input parameters for the model and complete the preliminary design of the conceptual model. The space-time information mechanism of AIDS sexual transmission is not only the theoretical basis of multi-Agent technology modeling, but also the practical basis and significance of the research. Finally, the simulation model based on multi-Agent technology is built. Using Repast simulation platform and Java advanced programming language, and using ArcGIS software to complete the map data processing in the research area, finally realized the integration of AIDS transmission model based on grid space and ArcGIS software. The research results have some practicability, but due to the limited time and level, the paper can not complete the software platform based on GIS, which is one of the key points of the next research.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：云南師范大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2009
【分類號】：R181.3

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本文編號：2006007