本文選題：CUSUM模型 + 流行性腮腺炎�。� 參考：《中國衛(wèi)生統(tǒng)計(jì)》2014年04期

【摘要】：目的探討累積和控制圖模型(cumulative sum control chart,CUSUM)在流行性腮腺炎早期預(yù)警中的應(yīng)用價(jià)值,為流行性腮腺炎的應(yīng)急防制提供科學(xué)依據(jù),也為其他傳染病突發(fā)公共衛(wèi)生事件的預(yù)警研究提供參考和借鑒。方法以江蘇省各區(qū)縣每日發(fā)病數(shù)為基礎(chǔ),從2012年1月1日起以CUSUM模型進(jìn)行前瞻性試驗(yàn),用靈敏度、特異度、及時(shí)性等3個(gè)指標(biāo)對(duì)預(yù)警結(jié)果進(jìn)行評(píng)價(jià),并比較CUSUM模型預(yù)警與國家傳染病自動(dòng)預(yù)警系統(tǒng)(CIDARS)之間的優(yōu)劣。結(jié)果應(yīng)用CUSUM模型進(jìn)行預(yù)警分析全年共產(chǎn)生1688條預(yù)警信號(hào),比自動(dòng)預(yù)警系統(tǒng)產(chǎn)生的信號(hào)數(shù)少35.30%。CUSUM模型預(yù)警靈敏度為100%、特異度為95.84%,均高于自動(dòng)預(yù)警系統(tǒng)(χ2=6.087,P=0.0136;χ2=602.48,P0.0001);CUSUM模型預(yù)警及時(shí)性的中位數(shù)為3.5天,自動(dòng)預(yù)警系統(tǒng)為6天,兩者無統(tǒng)計(jì)學(xué)差異(Z=0.9173,P=0.3590)。結(jié)論江蘇省腮腺炎疫情數(shù)據(jù)CUSUM模型預(yù)警分析效果優(yōu)于自動(dòng)預(yù)警系統(tǒng),且有進(jìn)一步提高的空間。
[Abstract]:Objective to explore the application value of cumulative and control chart model (CUSUM) in early warning of mumps, and to provide scientific basis for emergency prevention and control of mumps. It also provides a reference for the early warning of public health emergencies of other infectious diseases. Methods based on the daily incidence of disease in every district and county of Jiangsu Province, a prospective test was conducted with CUSUM model from January 1, 2012. The early warning results were evaluated with three indexes: sensitivity, specificity and timeliness. The advantages and disadvantages of CUSUM model and national infectious disease automatic warning system are compared. Results A total of 1688 early warning signals were generated by using CUSUM model for early warning analysis. The early warning sensitivity and specificity of 35.30%.CUSUM model were 100 and 95.844.It was higher than that of automatic warning system (蠂 2 6.087 P0. 0136, 蠂 2 602.48 P0. 0001), the median of early warning time of CUSUM model was 3. 5 days, and that of automatic warning system was 6 days. There was no statistical difference between the two models. Conclusion the effect of CUSUM model is better than that of automatic warning system, and there is room for further improvement.
【作者單位】： 江蘇省疾病預(yù)防控制中心;
【基金】：江蘇省科教興衛(wèi)工程(ZX201109,RC2011085) 江蘇省預(yù)防醫(yī)學(xué)科研項(xiàng)目(YZ201020)
【分類號(hào)】：R512.1;R181.2
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本文編號(hào)：1991089