本文關(guān)鍵詞： 釘螺面積 四分位法 線性傾向率 生態(tài)防控　出處：《現(xiàn)代預(yù)防醫(yī)學(xué)》2017年19期 　論文類型：期刊論文

【摘要】：目的探討近十年來江漢平原各縣市釘螺面積時空變化特征。方法利用2003-2016年江漢平原16縣市釘螺面積資料,基于四分位法、線性傾向估計、經(jīng)驗正交函數(shù)(EOF)分解方法,分析江漢平原近十年來釘螺面積時空變化特征及其主要空間分布型。結(jié)果江漢平原北部縣市釘螺面積中位數(shù)均低于1 000hm2,南部縣市在5 000hm2以上,鐘祥、潛江和荊門釘螺面積四分位距在380hm2以上;江漢平原釘螺面積在2010年前呈逐年下降趨勢,此后維持穩(wěn)定并從2014年開始下降;江漢平原北部縣市釘螺面積變化線性傾向率為正值,南部縣市均為負(fù)值,鐘祥和蔡甸釘螺面積變化線性傾向率分別為38.50hm2/a和-69.79hm2/a,是江漢平原釘螺面積增減速率最快地區(qū);釘螺面積EOF分解前兩個特征向量場方差貢獻分別為66.6%和13.3%,空間場為"南正北負(fù)"型和"+、-、+"三極型。結(jié)論江漢平原北部縣市常年釘螺面積較小,南部縣市常年釘螺面積較大;鐘祥、潛江和荊門釘螺面積波動幅度較大;江漢平原南部和北部釘螺面積變化趨勢有明顯差異。
[Abstract]:Objective to investigate the recent ten years all counties and cities in Jianghan plain area of snail temporal and spatial changes. Using the method of 16 counties in the area of snail data of 2003-2016 years of Jianghan Plain, four quantile method based on linear trend estimation, empirical orthogonal function (EOF) decomposition method, analysis of Jianghan Plain in recent ten years and its spatial temporal and spatial variations of the snail distribution area type the northern city of Oncomelania in Jianghan Plain. The area median was less than 1 000hm2, the southern counties and cities in more than 5 000hm2, Zhongxiang, Qianjiang and Jingmen four points from the snail area above 380hm2; Jianghan plain area of snail in 2010 before declining trend, then remained stable and began to decline from 2014; the northern city of Jianghan plain area of snail change the linear trend rate is positive, the southern counties of Zhongxiang and Caidian were negative, snail area change linear tendency rate was 38.50hm2/a and -69.79hm2 /a, is the The plain area of snail increased the fastest deceleration rate area; the area of snail EOF decomposition two feature vector field variance were 66.6% and 13.3%, the space field as a "negative in North" and "+, -, +" triode type. Conclusion the northern Jianghan Plain counties perennial snail area small, South County perennial snail a large area of Zhongxiang, Qianjiang and Jingmen; the snail area fluctuates greatly; the trend of Southern Jianghan Plain and north area of snail changes have obvious difference.

【作者單位】： 武漢區(qū)域氣候中心;中國科學(xué)院測量與地球物理研究所;
【基金】：中國氣象局氣候變化專項(CCSF201409) 國家自然科學(xué)基金面上項目(41571487)
【分類號】：Q958;R184.38
【正文快照】： 江漢平原位于湖北省中南部,地跨長江、漢江流域,湖泊眾多、水網(wǎng)密集,是湖北省血吸蟲的唯一中間宿主——湖北釘螺(以下簡稱釘螺)的主要孽生地,截至2016年,江漢平原16縣市釘螺面積約為3105.17hm2,占湖北省實有釘螺面積的60.0%以上。隨著全球氣候變暖、洪澇等極端氣候事件增多,釘，

本文編號：1485645