全球氣候正經(jīng)歷著一場以變暖為主要特征的顯著變化,深刻影響著人類的生存與發(fā)展,構(gòu)成當(dāng)今國際社會(huì)共同面臨的重大挑戰(zhàn),如氣候變化將對人類可持續(xù)發(fā)展造成一系列的影響,由氣候變化引發(fā)的極端氣溫和降水事件、高溫干旱、海平面上升、臺(tái)風(fēng)等都會(huì)對社會(huì)經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展、生態(tài)環(huán)境以及人類公共衛(wèi)生健康造成威脅。雖然在全球尺度上的氣候變化趨勢和基本事實(shí)已經(jīng)非常一致,但是在某些區(qū)域性（如中國）的氣候變化趨勢檢測上,則還存在巨大差異和不確定性。本論文將以非洲中東部的盧旺達(dá)為例,利用長時(shí)間序列的常規(guī)地面氣象站點(diǎn)觀測資料、模式同化再分析資料以及緊10年瘧疾病例變化,利用相關(guān)分析、合成分析和正態(tài)分布比例指數(shù)（PNI）方法,系統(tǒng)分析了盧旺達(dá)地區(qū)的極端異常降水事件的年際變化及成因;深入分析了極端氣溫、最低氣溫和最高氣溫及日較差的變化趨勢和成因;最后,進(jìn)一步分析了降水和氣溫的氣候變化對盧旺達(dá)瘧疾發(fā)生概率的影響規(guī)律特征。主要結(jié)果和結(jié)論如下:1)對1981-2010年期間的降水分析表明,在多雨洪澇年份（如1987,1988和1998等）,盧旺達(dá)地區(qū)的降水與厄爾尼諾引起的風(fēng)場異常和水汽輻合密切有關(guān),主要表現(xiàn)為來自大西洋的強(qiáng)西風(fēng)異常和來自印度... 

【文章來源】：中國科學(xué)技術(shù)大學(xué)安徽省 211工程院校 985工程院校

【文章頁數(shù)】：137 頁

【學(xué)位級別】：博士

【文章目錄】：
摘要
ABSTRACT
GLOSSARY OF TERMS AND ABBREVIATIONS
Chapter 1: Introduction
    1.1 Background of the study
    1.2 Previous studies
    1.3 Objective of the study:
        1.3.1 The specific objectives of the study
    1.4 Justification of the study
        1.4.1 Hazard profile in Rwanda, Population and Temperature
    1.5 Study area location
        1.5.1 Physical features and climate of Rwanda
        1.5.2 Rainfall
        1.5.3 Temperature
        1.5.4 Climate variability and climate change
    1.6 FACTORS THAT INFLUENCE RAINFALL IN A REGION
        1.6.1 The Inter Tropical Convergence Zone （ITCZ）
        1.6.2 Subtropical Anticyclones
        1.6.3 EI Nino southern Oscillation
        1.6.4 Tropical monsoons
        1.6.5 Indian Ocean Dipole
        1.6.6 Congo basin and High mountains region interaction
    1.7 Reason for choosing East Africa, particularly Rwanda
    1.8 Dissertation Overview and Scope
    1.9 The role of the government for Malaria Control and Eradication
    1.10 Motivation
Chapter 2: Data and Methodology
    2.1 Data used in the Study
    2.2 Methodology
        2.2.1 Percent of Normal Index
        2.2.2 Composite method
        2.2.3 Vertical motion
        2.2.4 Correlation, partial correlation, regression
        2.2.5 The Mann-Kendall test
Chapter 3: Dominant Atmospheric Circulation Patterns Associated withAbnormal Rainfall Events over Rwanda, East Africa
    3.1 Wet and dry events
    3.2 Circulation Anomaly patterns associated with wet and dry events
    3.3 Conclusions
Chapter 4 Warming perspective: Observed changes in Maximum and Minimum temperature over Rwanda during 1961-2014
    4.1 Background
    4.2 Results and discussions
    4.3 Long-term trend
    4.4 The Spatio variattions of Annual and Seasonal and decadal Tmax
    4.5 The Spatio variattions of Annual and Seasonal and decadal Tmin
    4.6 Extreme maximum and minimum temperatures
    4.7 Impact of Topography on Temperature variability
    4.8 Discussions
    4.9 Conclusion
Chapter 5 Meteorological variables conducive to Malaria Frequency:A statistical study in Rwanda
    5.1 Background
    5.2 Results and discussion
    5.3 Rainfall trend analysis
    5.4 Temperature Trend Analysis for the regions
    5.5 Humidity Analysis
    5.6 Malaria Cases Analysis
    5.7 Estimation of affected people based population and malaria incidence casesfrom 2010-2016
    5.8 Correlation analysis
    5.9 The Role of the Government
    5.10 Discussions
    5.11 Conclusion
Chapter 6 overall Conclusions
    6.1 Limitations and future study
    6.2 Recommendations
REFERENCES
Acknowledgements
List of Selected Publications
List of Ongoing Papers


【參考文獻(xiàn)】：
期刊論文
[1]中國北方近50年干旱變化特征[J]. 王志偉,翟盤茂.  地理學(xué)報(bào). 2003(S1)
[2]DIAGNOSIS OF SUMMERTIME FLOODS/DROUGHTS AND THEIR ATMOSPHERIC CIRCULATION ANOMALIES OVER NORTH CHINA[J]. 譚桂容,孫照渤,陳海山.  Acta Meteorologica Sinica. 2003(03)



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