【摘要】：目的構(gòu)建北京市房山區(qū)感染性腹瀉發(fā)病的季節(jié)性求和自回歸移動平均(seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average,SARIMA)模型并進行預(yù)測。方法應(yīng)用R 3.0.1軟件程序包中的TSA對2004 2013年房山區(qū)感染性腹瀉月發(fā)病率構(gòu)建模型,并對2014年各月感染性腹瀉月發(fā)病率進行預(yù)測和評價。結(jié)果 SARIMA(0,0,2)(0,1,1)12模型較好地擬合既往時間段月發(fā)病率,對2014年發(fā)病趨勢擬合平均相對誤差為19.164%,對年發(fā)病率擬合平均相對誤差為2.303%。結(jié)論 SARIMA(0,0,2)(0,1,1)12模型能夠很好擬合感染性腹瀉月發(fā)病率數(shù)據(jù),可用于房山區(qū)感染性腹瀉發(fā)病趨勢的短期預(yù)測,為下一步采取針對性防控措施提供科學(xué)依據(jù)。
[Abstract]:Objective to establish and predict the seasonal sum autoregressive moving average (seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average,SARIMA) model of infectious diarrhea in Fangshan District, Beijing. Methods A model of monthly incidence of infectious diarrhea in Fangshan District in 20042013 was established by using TSA in R3.0.1 software package, and the monthly incidence rate of infectious diarrhea in 2014 was predicted and evaluated. Results the monthly incidence of the past time period was well fitted by SARIMA (0 ~ 0 / 2) (0 ~ 1 / 1) _ (12) model. The average relative error of fitting the incidence trend in 2014 was 19.164, and the average relative error for annual incidence was 2.303%. Conclusion the SARIMA (0 ~ 0 ~ 0 ~ (2) (0 ~ 1 ~ 1 ~ (-1) _ (12) model can well fit the monthly incidence data of infectious diarrhea, and can be used to predict the incidence trend of infective diarrhea in Fangshan area in the short term, and provide scientific basis for the next step of prevention and control measures.
【作者單位】： 北京市房山區(qū)疾病預(yù)防控制中心;
【分類號】：R516.4

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