【摘要】：血吸蟲病是一種嚴重危害人體健康、制約社會經(jīng)濟發(fā)展的傳染病或寄生蟲病。我國是日本血吸蟲病流行最嚴重的國家之一。目前，關于血吸蟲病的研究主要集中在血吸蟲病的流行與防治方面。同時，關于血吸蟲病與環(huán)境因子（水文特征、溫度、植被等）的關系，國內(nèi)外學者做了大量的相關研究。研究表明環(huán)境條件是影響釘螺生存和血吸蟲病傳播的決定性因素。隨著三峽工程的蓄水運行、氣候的變化、退田還湖政策的實施等，，有關洞庭湖區(qū)水和生態(tài)環(huán)境的改變對洲灘釘螺生存和血吸蟲病的傳播影響研究還有待進一步開展。 本研究擬以洞庭湖區(qū)為研究對象，以該區(qū)域血吸蟲病疫情、MODIS以及水位等數(shù)據(jù)為基礎，采用ENVI、GIS分析軟件及其他統(tǒng)計學方法，系統(tǒng)地研究了洞庭湖區(qū)血吸蟲病疫情及釘螺的時空變化特征及疫情與環(huán)境因子的關系。研究結果如下： （1）洞庭湖區(qū)血吸蟲疫情的時空變化特征研究表明：洞庭湖區(qū)急性血吸蟲病呈顯著下降趨勢，近幾年已被控制在20例以內(nèi)，并且青少年病例所占比例顯著減小；人類血吸蟲病疫情整體呈上升趨勢，其中1996~2003年間上升幅度極小，2003~2006年呈急劇上升趨勢，2007年出現(xiàn)明顯的下降后再次呈現(xiàn)顯著的增長，并且2003年后疫情嚴重區(qū)域由靠近湖區(qū)向外擴張；耕牛血吸蟲病1996~2003年間呈緩慢的增長趨勢，2003年之后呈持續(xù)下降趨勢，2010年較2003年下降了62.76%；且靠近湖區(qū)人類和耕牛血吸蟲病疫情更為嚴重。 （2）基于MODIS數(shù)據(jù)洞庭湖區(qū)釘螺可疑孳生地探測及其時空變化特征研究結果表明：基于MODIS遙感影像的多源信息水體提取方法在釘螺可疑孳生地探測方面具有良好的應用效果；洞庭湖區(qū)潛在的釘螺孳生地面積呈顯著的減小趨勢，2007年僅為2003年的39.40%，2008年為2003年的40.10%；且2003年以后，東洞庭湖區(qū)和南洞庭湖區(qū)釘螺可疑孳生地有顯著的縮減，西洞庭湖區(qū)2004年之后則表現(xiàn)為僅剩下零碎的區(qū)域適宜釘螺孳生。 （3）洞庭湖區(qū)血吸蟲病疫情與環(huán)境因子關系研究表明：近年來，洞庭湖區(qū)水面面積、水位、洲灘水淹時間等環(huán)境因子均發(fā)生了一定的變化，且各環(huán)境因子與血吸蟲病疫情之間存在不同程度的相關性。其中，洞庭湖區(qū)10月份的水位和洲灘開始水淹時間與人群感染率之間存極顯著的負相關性，其相關系數(shù)的平方分別達到-0.800和-0.773。且10月份的水位和開始水淹時間與人群感染率之間回歸模型擬合效果良好，未來洞庭湖區(qū)人類血吸蟲病的發(fā)展可以依據(jù)10月份的水位和開始水淹時間進行初步預測。
[Abstract]:Schistosomiasis is an infectious disease or parasitic disease that seriously endangers human health and restricts social and economic development. China is one of the countries with the most serious schistosomiasis epidemic. At present, the research on schistosomiasis mainly focuses on the prevalence and prevention of schistosomiasis. At the same time, scholars at home and abroad have done a lot of research on the relationship between schistosomiasis and environmental factors (hydrological characteristics, temperature, vegetation, etc.). The results showed that environmental conditions were the decisive factors affecting the survival and schistosomiasis transmission of Oncomelania hupensis. With the operation of the three Gorges Project, the change of climate, the policy of returning farmland to lake, and so on, the study on the influence of water and ecological environment on the survival of Oncomelania hupensis and the transmission of schistosomiasis in Dongting Lake need to be carried out further. Based on the data of MODIS and water level of schistosomiasis epidemic situation in Dongting Lake region, the software of ENVI GIS analysis and other statistical methods were used in this study. The temporal and spatial changes of schistosomiasis and snail in Dongting Lake region and the relationship between epidemic situation and environmental factors were studied systematically. The results are as follows: (1) the characteristics of temporal and spatial variation of schistosomiasis epidemic in Dongting Lake region show that the acute schistosomiasis in Dongting Lake region has decreased significantly and has been controlled within 20 cases in recent years. The proportion of juvenile schistosomiasis cases decreased significantly, and the overall epidemic situation of human schistosomiasis showed an upward trend, in which the increase was very small from 1996 to 2003 and showed a sharp upward trend from 2003 to 2006, and increased again after an obvious decrease in 2007. After 2003, the severe area of epidemic situation expanded from the lake area to the outside, and the trend of schistosomiasis of cultivated cattle increased slowly in 1996 and 2003, and decreased continuously after 2003, and decreased 62.76% in 2010 than in 2003. Furthermore, the epidemic situation of schistosomiasis in humans and cattle near the lake area is more serious. (2) based on MODIS data, the detection of suspected breeding sites of Oncomelania hupensis in Dongting Lake region and its temporal and spatial variation characteristics are studied. The results show that the multisource information based on MODIS remote sensing images is obtained. The method of extracting information water has a good effect on the detection of the suspected breeding areas of Oncomelania hupensis. The potential snail breeding area decreased significantly in Dongting Lake region, which was only 39.40 in 2007 and 40.10 in 2008, and decreased significantly after 2003 in East Dongting Lake and South Dongting Lake. In the west Dongting Lake region after 2004, only the scattered areas are suitable for snail breeding. (3) the study on the relationship between schistosomiasis epidemic situation and environmental factors in Dongting Lake region shows that: in recent years, the surface area and water level of Dongting Lake region, The environmental factors, such as waterflooded time, have changed to a certain extent, and there are different correlations between the environmental factors and schistosomiasis epidemic situation. The correlation coefficient square of the correlation coefficient was -0.800 and -0.773respectively. The regression model between the water level and the onset of flooding in October and the infection rate of the population fitted well. The future development of human schistosomiasis in Dongting Lake region can be preliminarily predicted according to the water level and the onset time of flooding in October.
【學位授予單位】：湖南大學
【學位級別】：碩士
【學位授予年份】：2014
【分類號】：R532.21

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