【摘要】：目的分析東洞庭湖區(qū)2012、2014年人群血吸蟲病空間分布變化及其影響因素,為制定有效的干預(yù)措施提供參考。方法在東洞庭湖區(qū)選取君山區(qū)作為研究現(xiàn)場(chǎng),運(yùn)用空間自相關(guān)分析君山區(qū)2012、2014年人群血吸蟲病感染率空間分布特征的變化,使用空間回歸模型探討影響人群感染的危險(xiǎn)因素。結(jié)果 2013年君山區(qū)家畜血吸蟲感染率低于2011年;2014年君山區(qū)人群血吸蟲平均感染率降為0.55%;2012年和2014年君山區(qū)人群血吸蟲感染均存在空間自相關(guān),局部空間自相關(guān)分析探測(cè)出4個(gè)高高聚集村;2012年空間誤差模型顯示,人群感染率與家畜感染率和易感環(huán)境面積呈正相關(guān),而2014年空間滯后模型顯示,易感環(huán)境面積呈正相關(guān),家畜感染率無(wú)統(tǒng)計(jì)學(xué)意義。結(jié)論封洲禁牧和牛羊淘汰措施對(duì)防控血吸蟲病效果顯著,可根據(jù)君山區(qū)血吸蟲病空間分布特征,在東洞庭湖湖區(qū)繼續(xù)實(shí)施該措施和開展查螺滅螺工作。
[Abstract]:Objective to analyze the spatial distribution of schistosomiasis and its influencing factors in East Dongting Lake region in 2012 and 2014, so as to provide reference for effective intervention measures. Methods the spatial distribution of schistosomiasis infection rate in Junshan area in East Dongting Lake region was analyzed by spatial autocorrelation analysis in 2012 and 2014, and the risk factors of infection were analyzed by spatial regression model. Results the schistosomiasis infection rate in Junshan area in 2013 was lower than that in 2011; the average schistosomiasis infection rate in Junshan area in 2014 was 0.55; there was a spatial autocorrelation between 2012 and 2014. The spatial error model of 2012 showed that the infection rate of population was positively correlated with the infection rate of livestock and the area of susceptible environment, while the spatial lag model of 2014 showed positive correlation with the area of susceptible environment. The infection rate of domestic animals was not statistically significant. Conclusion the measures of forbidding animal husbandry and eliminating cattle and sheep on the control of schistosomiasis are very effective. According to the spatial distribution characteristics of schistosomiasis in Junshan area, the measures can be continued to be carried out and the snail control work can be carried out in the Lake area of East Dongting Lake.
【作者單位】： 復(fù)旦大學(xué)公共衛(wèi)生學(xué)院流行病學(xué)教研室 公共衛(wèi)生安全教育部重點(diǎn)實(shí)驗(yàn)室 熱帶病學(xué)研究中心;
【基金】：國(guó)家自然科學(xué)基金(81673236)
【分類號(hào)】：R181.3;R532.21

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