本文選題：手足口病 + 年齡組��； 參考：《中華疾病控制雜志》2015年07期

【摘要】：目的分析中國大陸手足口病動態(tài)模式的可能驅動因素,估計該病流行特性的重要參數。方法將宿主分成0~9歲(兒童組)和10~75歲(年長組)年齡組,建立分年齡結構的易感者-感染者-移出者(susceptible-infected-recovered,SIR)模型。根據我國2009-2011年手足口病發(fā)病數據,估算兩個年齡組的人均接觸率(β)和平均感染力(λ),及基本再生數(R0)。對模型進行計算機模擬,分析手足口病傳播系統(tǒng)的動態(tài)特性以及學校開學對手足口病動態(tài)模式的影響。結果我國兒童組和年長組的手足口病年平均感染力分別為0.42,0.11;年人均接觸率分別是1.28×10-6,3.31×10-7;基本再生數為8.86。在有外部驅動力(學校開學)的情況下,手足口病的發(fā)病數會有一年一次的季節(jié)性。結論我國0~9歲兒童手足口病的平均感染力高于目前文獻報道的其他兒童傳染病的平均感染力;≤9歲兒童間手足口病的接觸率高于≥10歲人群間的接觸率;每學年的開學能導致手足口病一年一次的季節(jié)性。
[Abstract]:Objective to analyze the possible driving factors of the dynamic pattern of HFMD in mainland China and to estimate the important parameters of epidemic characteristics of HFMD. Methods the host was divided into 9 years old (children group) and 10 to 75 years old (older group) to establish the model of susceptible person-infected person-emigrant person susceptible-infecting d-recovered SIRs. Based on the data of HFMD incidence in China from 2009 to 2011, the per capita contact rate (尾) and average infectivity (位 ~ (1) and the number of basic regeneration (R _ (0) of the two age groups were estimated. Computer simulation was carried out to analyze the dynamic characteristics of HFMD transmission system and the influence of school opening on HFMD dynamic model. Results the average annual infectious power of HFMD in Chinese children and the elderly group were 0.42 and 0.11 respectively, the annual per capita contact rates were 1.28 脳 10-6 and 3.31 脳 10-7, respectively, and the number of basic regeneration was 8.86. With external driving forces (school opening), HFMD occurs seasonally once a year. Conclusion the average infectious power of children aged 0 to 9 years old in China is higher than that of other infectious diseases reported in literature at present, the contact rate of children with HFMD 鈮，

本文編號：1947169