本文選題：人布魯氏菌病　切入點(diǎn)：分布特征　出處：《山西醫(yī)科大學(xué)》2017年碩士論文　論文類型：學(xué)位論文

【摘要】：目的:以縣(區(qū))級(jí)行政區(qū)域?yàn)榭臻g單元?jiǎng)?chuàng)建山西省人布魯氏菌病地理信息數(shù)據(jù)庫,描述全省2011~2015年人布魯氏菌病的人群分布、時(shí)間分布和地區(qū)分布,探索空間分布關(guān)系和時(shí)空聚集特征及某些可能影響布病分布的相關(guān)因素,并對結(jié)果進(jìn)行可視化展示,為山西省制定有效、合理的布病防控策略提供科學(xué)的依據(jù)。方法:本研究利用現(xiàn)有的山西省布病監(jiān)測數(shù)據(jù),并從《山西省統(tǒng)計(jì)年鑒》、國家地球系統(tǒng)科學(xué)數(shù)據(jù)共享平臺(tái)和地理空間數(shù)據(jù)云收集其它相關(guān)數(shù)據(jù),以縣級(jí)行政區(qū)劃為空間單元對山西省布病開展系統(tǒng)研究。首先,采用探索性空間數(shù)據(jù)分析描述布病的分布特征,并揭示疾病的空間關(guān)聯(lián)類型;繼而,應(yīng)用時(shí)空掃描統(tǒng)分析的方法,準(zhǔn)確探測山西省布病的高危時(shí)空聚集區(qū);并應(yīng)用Arc Gis10.2.2等相關(guān)軟件對以上結(jié)果進(jìn)行可視化展示。結(jié)果:山西省人布魯氏菌病分布特點(diǎn):(1)40~60歲年齡的人有較高的報(bào)告病例數(shù),且男性的報(bào)告病例數(shù)要高于女性,布病患者大部分從事農(nóng)牧業(yè)工作;(2)2011~2015年人布魯氏菌病的報(bào)告發(fā)病率總體上呈上升趨勢,且有明顯的季節(jié)特征,主要發(fā)生在3~7月份,其中以5月最高;(3)主要集中在山西省北部縣區(qū),大致呈南低北高和西低東高的弧形趨勢,這些地區(qū)大都為海拔1500-1800m,牧業(yè)發(fā)達(dá)且以牛羊?yàn)橹鞯牡貐^(qū)。全局Moran’s I系數(shù)顯示,2011~2015年山西省119縣(區(qū))人布病報(bào)告發(fā)病率存在空間正相關(guān),呈聚集性分布。局部Moran’s I系數(shù)顯示,5年期間共有43個(gè)縣區(qū)為“高-高”聚集區(qū),且這些縣區(qū)均集中在山西省北方。時(shí)空掃描分析結(jié)果指出山西省有統(tǒng)計(jì)學(xué)意義的時(shí)空聚集區(qū)一共有9個(gè),分別為一級(jí)時(shí)空聚集區(qū)和8個(gè)次級(jí)時(shí)空聚集區(qū)。其中一級(jí)時(shí)空聚集區(qū)(LLR=4087.85,RR=3.98,P0.001)的聚集中心為新榮區(qū),半徑為158.03km,聚集時(shí)間段始于2013年1月1日,止于2014年12月31日,總?cè)丝跀?shù)為580.47萬人,所轄縣區(qū)數(shù)為21。次級(jí)時(shí)空聚集區(qū)主要有:(1)以榆社縣為中心,轄4個(gè)縣區(qū),聚集于2011年1月1日-2012年12月31日(LLR=475.71,RR=3.18,P0.001),總?cè)丝跀?shù)為89.18萬人;(2)以永和縣為中心,轄1個(gè)縣區(qū),聚集于2013年1月1日-2014年1月1日(LLR=319.34,RR=9.62,P0.001);(3)以沁源縣為中心,轄2個(gè)縣區(qū),聚集于2013年1月1日-2014年12月31日(LLR=145.27,RR=2.90,P0.001)。結(jié)論:本研究針對山西省最近幾年人布病發(fā)病率的上升趨勢,圍繞其流行特征及相關(guān)因素、空間分布關(guān)系和時(shí)空聚集的研究思路,綜合運(yùn)用遙感和地理信息技術(shù)、空間自相關(guān)分析和時(shí)空掃描分析�？梢暂^好且形象直觀的:(1)描述山西省布病的人群分布、時(shí)間分布和空間分布的特點(diǎn);(2)探索山西省布病的空間分布關(guān)系和時(shí)空聚集性。提示山西省布病的防控工作應(yīng)將重點(diǎn)放到北部的一些縣(區(qū)),應(yīng)特別注意在春、夏季節(jié)從事牛、羊養(yǎng)殖的人群。
[Abstract]:Objective: to establish the geographic information database of brucellosis in Shanxi province with the administrative region of county (district) level as the spatial unit, and to describe the population distribution, time distribution and regional distribution of brucellosis in Shanxi province from 2011 to 2015. To explore the spatial distribution relationship, spatial and temporal aggregation characteristics and some related factors that may affect the distribution of brucellosis, and to visualize the results, so as to establish an effective method for Shanxi Province. Reasonable prevention and control strategies of brucellosis provide scientific basis. Methods: the present monitoring data of brucellosis in Shanxi Province were used in this study. And from the Statistical Yearbook of Shanxi Province, the National Earth system Scientific data sharing platform and Geospatial data Cloud collect other relevant data, and take the county administrative division as the spatial unit to carry out the systematic research on Bubu disease in Shanxi Province. Using exploratory spatial data analysis to describe the distribution characteristics of brucellosis, and to reveal the spatial correlation type of the disease, and then to accurately detect the high risk space-time accumulation area of brucellosis in Shanxi Province by using the method of space-time scanning system analysis. Arc Gis10.2.2 and other related software were used to visualize the above results. Results: the distribution of brucellosis in Shanxi Province was higher than that in women, and the number of reported cases in men was higher than that in women. The reported incidence of brucellosis in most of the patients engaged in agricultural and animal husbandry work from 2011 to 2015 showed an upward trend, and had obvious seasonal characteristics, mainly in March and July, in which the highest incidence occurred in May in the northern counties of Shanxi Province. There is an arc trend of south low north high and west low east high. Most of these areas are 1500-1800m above sea level. The overall Moran's I coefficient shows that there is a positive correlation between 2011 and 2015 in the reported incidence rate of human cloth disease in 119 counties (districts) of Shanxi Province. The local Moran's I coefficient showed that there were 43 counties and districts with "high-high" concentration in five years. These counties and regions are all concentrated in the north of Shanxi Province. The results of space-time scanning analysis show that there are nine spatio-temporal areas in Shanxi Province that have statistical significance. The gathering center of the first class Spatio-temporal accumulation area is Xinrong area with a radius of 158.03km.The gathering time period begins on January 1st 2013 and ends on December 31st 2014, with a total population of five million eight hundred and four thousand and seven hundred people. The number of counties under the jurisdiction is 21.The main sub-space-time concentration areas are: 1) with Yushe County as the center and 4 counties under its jurisdiction, gathered in January 1st 2011 to December 31st 2012 in LLRN 475.71 RRN 3.18 P0.001T, with a total population of 891,800 people, with Yonghe County as the center and one county district under its jurisdiction. Collected from January 1st 2013 to January 1st 2014, LLRN 319.34 RRN 9.62P0.001) Qinyuan County as the center, two counties under its jurisdiction, and LLRN 145.27RRN 2.90 P0. 001T from January 1st 2013 to January 1st 2013. Conclusion: this study aims at the rising trend of the incidence of endemic diseases in Shanxi Province in recent years. Focusing on its epidemic characteristics and related factors, spatial distribution relations and space-time aggregation research ideas, comprehensive use of remote sensing and geographic information technology, Spatial autocorrelation analysis and space-time scanning analysis. It can describe the population distribution of brucellosis in Shanxi Province. The characteristics of time distribution and spatial distribution are to explore the spatial distribution relationship and spatio-temporal aggregation of brucellosis in Shanxi Province. It is suggested that the prevention and control of brucellosis in Shanxi Province should focus on some counties in the north, and should pay special attention to cattle in spring and summer festivals. A flock of sheep.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：山西醫(yī)科大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2017
【分類號(hào)】：R181.3;R516.7

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