本文關(guān)鍵詞：長沙市戊型肝炎發(fā)病與氣象因素關(guān)系的負二項回歸模型分析　出處：《中國全科醫(yī)學(xué)》2017年14期 　論文類型：期刊論文

  更多相關(guān)文章： 戊型肝炎 天氣和發(fā)病 二項分布 影響因素分析

【摘要】：目的探討戊型肝炎發(fā)病與氣象因素的關(guān)系。方法收集2004—2015年長沙市每月戊型肝炎發(fā)病數(shù)和氣象數(shù)據(jù)。通過過離散檢驗、模型擬合效果指標的比較評價Poisson回歸模型和負二項回歸模型的優(yōu)劣,選擇最優(yōu)模型分析影響戊型肝炎發(fā)病的氣象因素。結(jié)果 2004—2015年長沙市共報告戊型肝炎1 355例,年發(fā)病率為(0.21~2.77)/10萬,全年散發(fā),其中以2—5月居多。根據(jù)各氣象資料的相關(guān)性分析,選擇月降水量、月平均氣壓、月平均風(fēng)速、月平均氣溫、月平均相對濕度、月降水日數(shù)、月日照時數(shù)進入模型。過離散檢驗和模型擬合效果指標顯示,負二項回歸模型擬合效果優(yōu)于Poisson回歸模型。負二項回歸模型分析顯示,月平均氣溫[b=-0.024,95%CI(-0.036,-0.013)]、月降水日數(shù)[b=0.047,95%CI(0.032,0.062)]、月日照時數(shù)[b=0.003,95%CI(0.001,0.005)]是長沙市戊型肝炎發(fā)病的影響因素(P0.05)。結(jié)論氣溫降低、降水日數(shù)增多、日照時間延長是長沙市戊型肝炎發(fā)病例數(shù)增多的氣象因素。
[Abstract]:Objective to investigate the relationship between the incidence of hepatitis E and meteorological factors. Methods the monthly incidence and meteorological data of hepatitis E in Changsha from 2004 to 2015 were collected. The Poisson regression model and the negative binomial regression model were compared with each other. The optimal model was selected to analyze the meteorological factors affecting the incidence of hepatitis E. results A total of 1 355 cases of hepatitis E were reported in Changsha from 2004 to 2015. The annual incidence rate was 0.21 ~ 2.77 / 100,000, which was distributed in the whole year, most of which were from February to May. According to the correlation analysis of meteorological data, monthly precipitation, monthly mean pressure and monthly average wind speed were selected. Monthly mean temperature, monthly average relative humidity, monthly precipitation days, monthly sunshine hours entered the model. The fitting effect of negative binomial regression model is better than that of Poisson regression model. The analysis of negative binomial regression model shows that the monthly mean temperature is better than that of Poisson regression model. [B ~ (-0.024) ~ (95) ~ 0.036 ~ (-0.013)), number of days of monthly precipitation. [B 0.047 / 95CIQ 0.032 / 0.062], monthly sunshine hours. [Conclusion the temperature decreases and the precipitation days increase. The prolongation of sunshine time is the meteorological factor of increasing incidence of hepatitis E in Changsha.
【作者單位】： 湖南省長沙市疾病預(yù)防控制中心;
【分類號】：R122;R512.6
【正文快照】： 近年來,戊型肝炎的發(fā)病率維持在較低水平,介水傳播的戊型肝炎暴發(fā)流行較少出現(xiàn),主要以散發(fā)病例為主。國內(nèi)研究表明,散發(fā)性戊型肝炎的發(fā)生亦有明顯的 季節(jié)性,呈明顯的冬春季節(jié)分布[1]。為探討戊型肝炎與氣象因素的關(guān)系,針對目前較分散的戊型肝炎病例分布狀態(tài),本研究通過擬合Po，

本文編號：1423630