發(fā)布時間：2018-05-08 00:19

  本文選題：創(chuàng)新產(chǎn)品擴散 + 消費者��； 參考：《山東大學(xué)》2011年博士論文

【摘要】：創(chuàng)新產(chǎn)品是改變?nèi)祟惷\的最重要因素之一,更是現(xiàn)代企業(yè)在激烈市場競爭中賴以生存的核心要素,對于企業(yè)具有至關(guān)重要的價值。任何一種產(chǎn)品在其剛出現(xiàn)時都可以被視為是創(chuàng)新產(chǎn)品,但與普通產(chǎn)品不同,創(chuàng)新產(chǎn)品通常具有鮮明的創(chuàng)新性能和特點,以蘋果公司為例,其電子數(shù)碼產(chǎn)品iPod、iPhone憑借卓越的創(chuàng)新性,取得了巨大的市場成功,并在一定程度上改變了人類的生活方式。當(dāng)前全球化、市場化、知識化、,網(wǎng)絡(luò)化的時代背景下,企業(yè)在激烈殘酷的市場競爭中,益發(fā)需要通過創(chuàng)新來獲取競爭優(yōu)勢,因此,洞察創(chuàng)新產(chǎn)品擴散規(guī)律、分析創(chuàng)新擴散關(guān)鍵影響因素、預(yù)測創(chuàng)新產(chǎn)品擴散趨勢,便具有重要的理論意義和實際價值,這也是創(chuàng)新擴散研究幾十年來興盛不衰、始終占據(jù)市場研究重要地位的原因。 創(chuàng)新產(chǎn)品擴散是一個非常復(fù)雜的市場過程,通常要經(jīng)歷產(chǎn)品進入市場、擴散起飛、擴散持續(xù)、直到擴散完成等多個階段,在各個階段都會有不同的因素影響創(chuàng)新產(chǎn)品擴散的進行,而創(chuàng)新產(chǎn)品能否順利擴散最終還是取決于消費者是否接受和購買該產(chǎn)品。因此,從消費者的視角來研究創(chuàng)新產(chǎn)品擴散,對于探究擴散發(fā)生的本質(zhì)、擴散的規(guī)律和形態(tài)等問題意義重大,而從這一角度來開展的創(chuàng)新擴散研究尚處于起步階段,國內(nèi)外所取得的研究成果還比較有限,本論文期望從消費者視角出發(fā)對創(chuàng)新產(chǎn)品擴散問題進行探索和考察,取得有價值的研究成果。 自Bass在1969年首次提出擴散模型以來,學(xué)者們開展了長期系統(tǒng)而深入的研究,創(chuàng)新產(chǎn)品擴散領(lǐng)域中涌現(xiàn)出眾多成果。隨著研究的不斷發(fā)展,許多不同學(xué)科的思想和理論越來越多的融入到該領(lǐng)域研究當(dāng)中,尤其是模擬仿真等技術(shù)手段的發(fā)展和成熟,為創(chuàng)新產(chǎn)品擴散研究開辟了一條新的路徑,使得該領(lǐng)域中的很多具體問題可以得到更為深入細(xì)致的考察。創(chuàng)新產(chǎn)品擴散是一個宏大的研究主題,所包含的具體研究問題數(shù)量眾多,并具有較高的理論探索和實際應(yīng)用價值,本論文綜合使用模擬仿真的技術(shù)手段,在單一創(chuàng)新產(chǎn)品擴散和兩種競爭性創(chuàng)新產(chǎn)品擴散情景下展開研究,對創(chuàng)新產(chǎn)品擴散中一系列未被研究過的具體問題進行考察和分析,并對某些已經(jīng)研究過的重要問題從不同的角度和層面進一步深入探索。 論文考慮了現(xiàn)實中消費者的異質(zhì)性,不同消費者具有不同的需求、不同的目標(biāo)結(jié)構(gòu)、不同的決策方式,也造成了對創(chuàng)新產(chǎn)品的不同采納結(jié)果。同時,消費者身處社會系統(tǒng)之中,消費者所作的決策,不僅與個體本身有關(guān),還受到社會影響的作用。隨著通訊技術(shù)的進步和互聯(lián)網(wǎng)在日常生活中的滲透,消費者之間的交流更加便捷和頻繁,消費者決策時受到的社會影響作用也日益增強,因此,研究消費者所處的網(wǎng)絡(luò)結(jié)構(gòu)對于創(chuàng)新擴散的影響同樣具有重要意義。論文采用自底向上的思路對創(chuàng)新產(chǎn)品擴散問題進行研究,從微觀消費者個體出發(fā),分析消費者的異質(zhì)性及決策差異,通過對消費者基本狀態(tài)的考察,探究消費者對于創(chuàng)新產(chǎn)品的認(rèn)知和決策規(guī)則,使用多主體建模原理和技術(shù)進行建模,進而對有關(guān)問題展開模擬仿真,籍此對單一創(chuàng)新產(chǎn)品擴散規(guī)律及特點進行考察。另外,論文還應(yīng)用復(fù)雜網(wǎng)絡(luò)理論和方法,將消費者置身于網(wǎng)絡(luò)中進行研究,以此來考察網(wǎng)絡(luò)拓?fù)浣Y(jié)構(gòu)等對創(chuàng)新產(chǎn)品擴散帶來的影響。 在單一創(chuàng)新產(chǎn)品擴散模擬分析部分,使用多主體建模原理和技術(shù),在Repast Simphony平臺上進行模擬研究,既對微觀消費者主體進行描述和刻畫,又從宏觀層面系統(tǒng)展現(xiàn)了創(chuàng)新產(chǎn)品擴散過程和擴散結(jié)果,從而對所關(guān)注的具體問題進行詳細(xì)考察。同時,論文運用復(fù)雜網(wǎng)絡(luò)理論和方法,將消費者置身于網(wǎng)絡(luò)中進行研究,籍此考察WS小世界網(wǎng)絡(luò)和BA無標(biāo)度網(wǎng)絡(luò)兩種網(wǎng)絡(luò)拓?fù)浣Y(jié)構(gòu)和局部世界大小等對消費者決策及創(chuàng)新產(chǎn)品擴散的影響作用。在對模擬結(jié)果進行分析的過程中,論文還使用SPSS 16.0進行了一系列統(tǒng)計分析和檢驗。通過模擬和分析,在創(chuàng)新產(chǎn)品質(zhì)量、廣告強度和投放時間、廣告投放方式、網(wǎng)絡(luò)拓?fù)浣Y(jié)構(gòu)、消費者局部世界大小及其交互對單一創(chuàng)新產(chǎn)品擴散結(jié)果的影響作用等具體問題上取得了一系列研究成果,具體包括以下方面： (1)在考察創(chuàng)新產(chǎn)品本身質(zhì)量的好壞對于產(chǎn)品擴散的影響作用問題時,模擬結(jié)果顯示,創(chuàng)新產(chǎn)品本身的質(zhì)量對于產(chǎn)品擴散具有至關(guān)重要的影響作用,產(chǎn)品質(zhì)量越好,擴散的結(jié)果也越好,體現(xiàn)在累積采納者數(shù)量和擴散速度兩個方面。 (2)在考察創(chuàng)新產(chǎn)品質(zhì)量與廣告之間交互作用對于擴散結(jié)果的影響作用問題時,在本研究的模擬情景下,即使產(chǎn)品質(zhì)量較差,也能在高強度廣告的刺激作用下,最終達(dá)到完全擴散的市場結(jié)果。但同時也可以發(fā)現(xiàn),采用者中對該產(chǎn)品進行了負(fù)面評價的人占據(jù)絕大多數(shù)。當(dāng)創(chuàng)新產(chǎn)品質(zhì)量處于中等水平(Q=0.5),模擬發(fā)現(xiàn),其與廣告每投50回合、間隔50回合、廣告強度φ=0.005的交互以及廣告每投10回合、間隔50回合、廣告強度φ=0.01的交互均能取得較好的創(chuàng)新產(chǎn)品擴散結(jié)果。當(dāng)創(chuàng)新產(chǎn)品質(zhì)量足夠高(Q=0.8),此時產(chǎn)品只需要適量的廣告刺激即可達(dá)到非常好的擴散效果。根據(jù)本研究模擬設(shè)計情形下的擴散結(jié)果,質(zhì)量0.8的創(chuàng)新產(chǎn)品在廣告刺激作用下可以迅速完成整個擴散過程。 (3)在考察廣告投放方式對于創(chuàng)新產(chǎn)品擴散的影響作用問題時,論文關(guān)注集中式廣告投放和脈沖式廣告投放的效果差異,對這兩種廣告投放方式進行比較,模擬結(jié)果顯示,在本論文的模擬情景下,對于相同廣告強度、同等長度投放周期的兩種廣告投放方式,集中式廣告投放方式對于創(chuàng)新產(chǎn)品擴散的效果,要顯著優(yōu)于脈沖式廣告投放方式。 (4)在考察廣告投放周期與廣告強度的交互作用對于創(chuàng)新產(chǎn)品擴散的影響作用問題時,研究發(fā)現(xiàn)廣告投放周期與廣告強度的交互作用對于創(chuàng)新產(chǎn)品擴散產(chǎn)生了一定影響作用。 (5)在考察WS小世界網(wǎng)絡(luò)和BA無標(biāo)度網(wǎng)絡(luò)兩種網(wǎng)絡(luò)拓?fù)浣Y(jié)構(gòu)、以及局部世界大小對于創(chuàng)新產(chǎn)品擴散的影響作用,論文對不同網(wǎng)絡(luò)結(jié)構(gòu)、不同局部世界大小下的擴散結(jié)果進行模擬分析。通過模擬和分析,可以發(fā)現(xiàn)不同的網(wǎng)絡(luò)拓?fù)浣Y(jié)構(gòu)和局部世界大小對于創(chuàng)新產(chǎn)品擴散結(jié)果具有多方面的影響作用。 (6)在考察種子消費者比例對于創(chuàng)新產(chǎn)品擴散的影響作用問題時,模擬結(jié)果顯示,在本研究設(shè)計的情景里,創(chuàng)新產(chǎn)品擴散程度總體上會隨種子消費者比例的提高呈現(xiàn)逐步提高的態(tài)勢,二者之間具有相關(guān)性,初始種子消費者比例在一定程度上影響到產(chǎn)品擴散程度,并且BA網(wǎng)絡(luò)下這種影響作用要更大一些。 在當(dāng)今激烈的市場競爭中,一種創(chuàng)新產(chǎn)品在某時間段內(nèi)單獨擴散的情形往往很難存在,市場中通常是有兩種或多種創(chuàng)新產(chǎn)品同時存在,為了獲取理想的市場份額,不同創(chuàng)新產(chǎn)品之間存在復(fù)雜的作用關(guān)系(最為典型的即競爭關(guān)系),展現(xiàn)出不同的市場擴散結(jié)果。早期的創(chuàng)新擴散研究都只是針對壟斷性產(chǎn)品或一類產(chǎn)品,近十幾年來,一些創(chuàng)新擴散研究中開始考慮競爭效應(yīng)等問題,國外已有學(xué)者使用仿真模擬技術(shù)研究某些特定問題,國內(nèi)的相關(guān)研究多停留在數(shù)學(xué)建模等階段,鮮有運用模擬手段對這類問題進行研究分析的成果。由此,本研究對兩種競爭性創(chuàng)新產(chǎn)品擴散進行模擬研究,通過借鑒Bass模型和Lotka-Volterra模型對兩種競爭性創(chuàng)新產(chǎn)品擴散進行理論建模,使用系統(tǒng)動力學(xué)模擬軟件Vensim PLE,對四類典型問題進行了模擬研究,并初步得出如下結(jié)論： (1)在考察廣告對消費者影響作用和口碑對消費者影響作用對于兩種競爭性創(chuàng)新產(chǎn)品擴散的重要性比較問題時,模擬研究表明：廣告對消費者影響作用的變化和口碑對消費者影響作用的變化均在一定程度上影響了兩種產(chǎn)品的市場擴散結(jié)果,廣告對消費者影響作用對于產(chǎn)品最終市場擴散結(jié)果的重要性,要大于口碑對消費者影響作用對于產(chǎn)品擴散的重要性。 (2)在考察競爭性創(chuàng)新產(chǎn)品對于消費者的廣告或口碑影響作用的變化對于兩種產(chǎn)品市場擴散的影響問題時,模擬研究表明：競爭性創(chuàng)新產(chǎn)品對于消費者的廣告影響作用或口碑影響作用發(fā)生變化,確實會顯著影響到兩種創(chuàng)新產(chǎn)品的市場擴散結(jié)果,廣告或口碑影響作用的變化程度越大,對兩種創(chuàng)新產(chǎn)品累積采納者數(shù)量變化的影響程度也越大。 (3)在考察競爭性創(chuàng)新產(chǎn)品對于消費者的廣告和口碑影響作用同時增強或減弱對于兩種產(chǎn)品市場擴散的影響問題時,模擬研究表明：競爭性創(chuàng)新產(chǎn)品對于消費者的廣告影響作用和口碑影響作用以一定趨勢發(fā)生變化,確實會顯著影響到兩種創(chuàng)新產(chǎn)品的市場擴散結(jié)果。如果競爭產(chǎn)品的廣告和口碑影響作用同時增強,則該產(chǎn)品的市場擴散結(jié)果可以得到顯著提高；如果競爭產(chǎn)品的廣告和口碑影響作用同時減弱,則其對手產(chǎn)品的市場擴散結(jié)果可以獲得一定程度的改善。 (4)在考察競爭產(chǎn)品的廣告強度與廣告投放時機對于該創(chuàng)新產(chǎn)品擴散的影響問題時,模擬研究表明：在兩種創(chuàng)新產(chǎn)品相互競爭的情況下,競爭產(chǎn)品廣告強度對該產(chǎn)品擴散結(jié)果的影響作用要明顯大于廣告延遲投放對擴散結(jié)果的影響作用：隨著創(chuàng)新產(chǎn)品廣告強度的加大,該創(chuàng)新產(chǎn)品的最終市場擴散結(jié)果也越來越好,而廣告延遲投放對產(chǎn)品擴散結(jié)果的影響作用卻越來越��；當(dāng)創(chuàng)新產(chǎn)品的廣告強度達(dá)到一定程度(如0.01),該產(chǎn)品相較于其競爭產(chǎn)品已經(jīng)可以充分占領(lǐng)市場。 綜上,論文從消費者視角對創(chuàng)新產(chǎn)品擴散進行了系統(tǒng)研究,綜合使用模擬仿真等技術(shù)手段,對單一創(chuàng)新產(chǎn)品擴散和兩種競爭性創(chuàng)新產(chǎn)品擴散情景下一系列具體問題開展了考察和分析,從中觀察創(chuàng)新產(chǎn)品擴散形態(tài),探究創(chuàng)新產(chǎn)品擴散規(guī)律,取得了具有理論和應(yīng)用價值的研究成果。
[Abstract]:Innovative products are one of the most important factors to change the fate of human beings. It is also the core element of the survival of modern enterprises in the fierce market competition. It is of great value to the enterprise. Any product can be regarded as an innovative product at the time of its emergence, but different from universal products, innovative products usually have a distinct creation. The new performance and characteristics, take the Apple Corp as an example, its electronic digital product iPod, iPhone with excellent innovation, has achieved great market success, and to a certain extent changed the way of human life. Under the background of globalization, marketization, knowledge, and network, the enterprise is in the fierce and cruel market competition. In order to gain competitive advantage through innovation, it has important theoretical significance and practical value to see the diffusion law of innovative products, analyze the key factors of innovation diffusion and predict the trend of the diffusion of innovative products. This is the reason why the research of innovation diffusion has been flourishing for decades and occupies the important position of market research.
The diffusion of innovative products is a very complex market process. Usually, the product enters the market, spreads and spreads, spreads continuously, until the diffusion is completed. There will be different factors affecting the diffusion of innovative products at all stages, and whether the smooth diffusion of innovative products is ultimately dependent on the consumer acceptance or not. Therefore, the study of the diffusion of innovative products from the perspective of consumers is of great significance to the exploration of the essence of proliferation, the law and form of diffusion, and the research on innovation diffusion from this perspective is still in its infancy, and the research results at home and abroad are still limited. This paper is expected to be from consumption. From the perspective of researchers, we have explored and inspected the diffusion of innovative products and obtained valuable research results.
Since Bass first proposed the diffusion model for the first time in 1969, scholars have carried out a long and systematic and in-depth study. Many achievements have emerged in the field of innovation of product diffusion. With the continuous development of research, more and more ideas and theories of different disciplines have become more and more integrated into the field of research, especially simulation and simulation techniques. Development and maturity have opened up a new path for the research on the diffusion of innovative products, making a lot of specific problems in this field more detailed and detailed. The diffusion of innovative products is a great research topic, the number of specific research problems contained in this field is numerous, and it has a higher theoretical exploration and practical application value. This paper uses the technology of simulation and simulation to investigate and analyze a series of unstudied problems in the diffusion of innovative products, and further in-depth study of some important problems that have been studied from different angles and levels. Explore.
The paper considers the heterogeneity of consumers in reality. Different consumers have different needs, different target structures and different decision-making methods, which also result in different adoption results for innovative products. At the same time, consumers are in the social system, and the decisions made by consumers are not only related to the individual itself, but also influenced by the society. With the progress of communication technology and the infiltration of the Internet in daily life, the communication between consumers is more convenient and frequent, and the social impact of consumer decision-making is also increasing. Therefore, it is of great significance to study the network structure of consumers in the context of innovation diffusion. In this paper, we study the problem of the diffusion of innovative products, analyze the heterogeneity of consumers and the difference in decision-making from the microscopic consumer individuals. Through the investigation of the basic state of consumers, we explore the cognition and decision-making rules of consumers for innovative products, use multi-agent modeling and technology to model them, and then develop the related problems. In addition, the paper applies complex network theory and method to study the consumer in the network, in order to investigate the influence of network topology on the diffusion of innovative products.
In the part of the single innovation product diffusion simulation analysis part, using the multi-agent modeling principle and technology, the simulation research on the Repast Simphony platform is carried out, which not only describes and portrays the micro consumer subject, but also shows the diffusion process and the diffusion result of the innovative product from the macro level, so as to make a detailed examination of the specific problems concerned. At the same time, the thesis uses the complex network theory and method to study the consumer in the network, and investigates the influence of the two network topology and the local world size of the WS small world network and the BA scale-free network on the consumer decision-making and the diffusion of innovative products. A series of statistical analyses and tests are carried out using SPSS 16. Through simulation and analysis, a series of studies have been made on the specific problems of innovative product quality, advertising intensity and time of advertising, advertising mode, network topology, local world size of consumers and the impact of interaction on the result of the diffusion of single innovative products. Fruit, including the following aspects:
(1) when examining the impact of the quality of the innovative product itself on the product diffusion, the simulation results show that the quality of the innovative product itself has a crucial impact on the product diffusion, the better the product quality, the better the result of the diffusion, which is reflected in the two aspects of the number of cumulative adopters and the speed of diffusion.
(2) when examining the impact of the interaction between the quality of innovative products and advertising on the results of the diffusion, under the simulated scenario of this study, even if the product quality is poor, it can also reach the full diffusion of market results under the stimulus of high intensity advertising, but it is also found that the adopters have carried out the product. Negative evaluations take up the overwhelming majority. When the quality of the innovative product is at the middle level (Q=0.5), it is found that the interaction between the advertising 50 rounds, the interval of 50, the interaction of ad intensity [Phi], the 10 round of advertising, the interval of 50, the interaction of the advertising intensity [Phi] =0.01 can achieve better product diffusion results. The quality of the product is high enough (Q=0.8). At this time, the product only needs a moderate amount of advertising stimulus to achieve a very good diffusion effect. According to the results of the simulation design, the 0.8 of the innovative products can quickly complete the whole diffusion process under the action of advertising.
(3) when examining the impact of advertising on the diffusion of innovative products, the paper focuses on the difference between the effect of centralized advertising and the effect of impulse advertising, and compares the two ways of advertising. The simulation results show that in the simulation scenario of this paper, the same advertising intensity and the same length are put into the cycle. Two kinds of advertising methods, centralized advertising method for the diffusion of innovative products, the effect is significantly better than the impulse advertising mode.
(4) when examining the impact of the interaction between the advertising cycle and the advertising intensity on the diffusion of innovative products, the study found that the interaction between the advertising cycle and the advertising intensity has a certain impact on the diffusion of innovative products.
(5) in investigating the two network topology of WS small world network and BA scale-free network, and the effect of local world size on the diffusion of innovative products, the paper simulates the diffusion results of different network structures and different local world sizes. Through simulation and analysis, different network topology and parts can be found. The size of the world has many effects on the diffusion of innovative products.
(6) when examining the impact of the proportion of seed consumers on the diffusion of innovative products, the simulation results show that in the context of the design, the diffusion of innovative products will gradually increase with the increase of the proportion of the seed consumers, and the two has a correlation, and the proportion of initial seed consumers is to a certain extent. It affects the degree of diffusion of products, and the impact of BA network is even greater.
In today's fierce market competition, it is often difficult for an innovative product to spread alone in a certain period of time. There are usually two or more innovative products in the market. In order to obtain an ideal market share, there is a complex relationship between different innovative products (the most typical competitive relationship). The result of different market diffusion. The research of early innovation diffusion is only aimed at the monopoly products or a class of products. In the last decade, some problems in the research of innovation diffusion have begun to consider the competition effect, and some foreign scholars have used simulation technology to study certain specific problems, and the related research at home is mostly in the stage of mathematical modeling. There are few results of the research and analysis of this kind of problem by means of simulation. Therefore, this study simulates the diffusion of two kinds of competitive innovative products. By using the Bass model and Lotka-Volterra model for the theoretical modeling of the diffusion of two competitive innovative products, the system dynamics simulation software Vensim PLE is used for the four types of typical models. The problem is simulated and the following conclusions are reached.
(1) when examining the impact of advertising on consumers and the impact of word of mouth on consumers' impact on the diffusion of two competitive innovative products, the simulation studies show that the changes in the impact of advertising on consumers and the changes in the impact of word of mouth on consumers have affected the market expansion of the two products to a certain extent. As a result, the importance of advertising to the consumer's effect on the product's final market diffusion is more important than the importance of the impact of the word of mouth on the consumer's diffusion.
(2) when examining the impact of competitive and innovative products on consumers' advertising or word of mouth impact on the market proliferation of two products, simulation studies show that the impact of competitive innovative products on consumers' advertising or the influence of word of mouth affects the market of two kinds of innovative products. The larger the change of advertising or word of mouth, the greater the impact on the number of cumulative adopters of the two innovative products.
(3) when examining the impact of competitive and innovative products on consumers' advertising and word of mouth, the simulation study shows that the impact of competitive innovation products on consumers' advertising and the influence of word of mouth influence on the consumer's advertising and the influence of word of mouth change in a certain trend. The result of the market diffusion of two kinds of innovative products. If the effect of advertising and word of mouth of competitive products is enhanced simultaneously, the result of market diffusion of the product can be greatly improved; if the effect of advertising and word of mouth of competitive products weaken at the same time, the result of market diffusion of its rival products can be improved to a certain extent.
(4) when examining the influence of the advertising intensity and the time of advertising on the diffusion of the innovative product, the simulation study shows that the impact of the competitive product advertising intensity on the product diffusion results is significantly greater than the effect of advertising delay on the diffusion results in the case of the competition between the two innovative products. With the increase of advertising intensity of innovative products, the result of the final market diffusion of the innovative product is also getting better and better, and the effect of advertising delay on the result of the product diffusion is becoming smaller and smaller. When the advertising intensity of the innovative product reaches a certain degree (such as 0.01), the product can fully occupy the market compared to its competitive products.
In conclusion, the paper systematically analyzes the diffusion of innovative products from the perspective of consumers.

【學(xué)位授予單位】：山東大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級別】：博士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2011
【分類號】：F224;F273.2

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