本文選題：社會(huì)互動(dòng) + 社會(huì)性學(xué)習(xí)��； 參考：《西南財(cái)經(jīng)大學(xué)》2010年博士論文

【摘要】：在傳統(tǒng)的經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)中,價(jià)格理論是整個(gè)經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)理論的核心。價(jià)格的形成過(guò)程,通常是不同的相關(guān)行為人獨(dú)立地對(duì)市場(chǎng)信號(hào)起反應(yīng),人們通過(guò)市場(chǎng)價(jià)格而間接地形成聯(lián)系,相應(yīng)地,僅僅對(duì)市場(chǎng)信號(hào)起反應(yīng)的行為人成為經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)理論中的行動(dòng)主體。然而在現(xiàn)實(shí)中,人們往往感受到文化、規(guī)范、社會(huì)結(jié)構(gòu)等在價(jià)格以外,或者稱(chēng)之為“非市場(chǎng)因素”對(duì)經(jīng)濟(jì)活動(dòng),尤其是微觀消費(fèi)行為的重要影響,并由此在不同的國(guó)家或地區(qū)形成差異化的消費(fèi)結(jié)構(gòu)。例如金融危機(jī)后,奢侈品廠商發(fā)現(xiàn)奢侈品消費(fèi)群在亞洲更趨向年輕化,大量中等收入階層的年輕人成為消費(fèi)主體并有著旺盛的需求,于是紛紛將亞洲,尤其是中國(guó)作為主體市場(chǎng)并以前所未有的速度快速擴(kuò)張。除了中國(guó)高速發(fā)展的經(jīng)濟(jì)成為消費(fèi)量持續(xù)增長(zhǎng)的重要保障,不可忽視的,是中國(guó)普遍的“攀比”和“送禮”文化帶動(dòng)了奢侈品消費(fèi)的爆發(fā)式增長(zhǎng)。以此為契機(jī),我們關(guān)注特有的文化、制度、事件和政策背景下,我國(guó)居民的微觀消費(fèi)行為特征,探索非市場(chǎng)因素對(duì)消費(fèi)活動(dòng)的作用規(guī)律,并借此評(píng)價(jià)目前部分經(jīng)濟(jì)政策的效果。 論文研究的出發(fā)點(diǎn)主要有兩個(gè)：一是以社會(huì)互動(dòng)(social interaction)為媒介,觀察個(gè)體的消費(fèi)決策與參照群體的消費(fèi)行為之間的聯(lián)系,以及作用的機(jī)理。這里提到的社會(huì)互動(dòng),最初源于社會(huì)學(xué)的概念,指人與人之間在特定社會(huì)情境中相互作用,彼此影響,從經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)上講,這種影響“并不直接在市場(chǎng)上通過(guò)價(jià)格變化而產(chǎn)生”(Baker and Murphy,2000)。參照群體因研究背景而異,可以是個(gè)體的家庭、朋友、鄰居或同事等有一定往來(lái)的群體(Scheinkman,2005),但他們都必須源自基于個(gè)體感受的共同的社會(huì)距離空間(Akerlof,1997)。其意義在于,社會(huì)互動(dòng)作為信息傳播的有效途徑之一,能夠使互動(dòng)群體獲得信息而免于或支付較少的成本,另一方面,群體的行為會(huì)對(duì)個(gè)體起到示范作用并相互影響,例如一個(gè)新產(chǎn)品進(jìn)入市場(chǎng),隨著消費(fèi)的人數(shù)逐漸增多,潛在消費(fèi)者會(huì)通過(guò)更多的人群互動(dòng)獲得信息,或受到影響而進(jìn)行消費(fèi),這就是消費(fèi)理論中提出的溢出效應(yīng),或者叫外部性。如果是正向的溢出,對(duì)消費(fèi)會(huì)形成促進(jìn),卻不需要改變商品價(jià)格或其他外部屬性。在政策層面,公共政策可以通過(guò)社會(huì)互動(dòng)而放大其效果,這就是所謂的“社會(huì)乘數(shù)”(social multiplier),社會(huì)乘數(shù)的存在將有助于提高公共政策的有效性(Becker and Murphy,2000)。例如,自2008年底以來(lái),我國(guó)相繼制定了家電、建材下鄉(xiāng)、新型節(jié)能電器消費(fèi)補(bǔ)貼等一系列針對(duì)耐用品消費(fèi),拉動(dòng)內(nèi)需的政策,在短期內(nèi)已顯示其效果,如果消費(fèi)活動(dòng)中存在溢出效應(yīng),補(bǔ)貼不但會(huì)增大當(dāng)期的購(gòu)買(mǎi),對(duì)潛在的消費(fèi)者也將形成間接的促進(jìn)作用。比如,對(duì)存在社會(huì)乘數(shù)效應(yīng)的消費(fèi)品提供一定補(bǔ)貼,即使補(bǔ)貼終止后,正的外部性也將對(duì)帶動(dòng)長(zhǎng)期消費(fèi)形成一定的持續(xù)作用。我們要證實(shí)的,就是消費(fèi)活動(dòng)中是否確實(shí)存在溢出效應(yīng),所選擇的媒介便是人與人的社會(huì)互動(dòng)(當(dāng)然,還可能有廣告、媒體等作為其他的渠道),并探討溢出效應(yīng)產(chǎn)生的內(nèi)在機(jī)制,以及出現(xiàn)社會(huì)乘數(shù)效應(yīng)的商品特征。 二是借助突發(fā)事件形成的自然實(shí)驗(yàn),來(lái)量化人們面對(duì)不確定性事件時(shí)的反應(yīng),進(jìn)而對(duì)消費(fèi)決策和市場(chǎng)的影響。這里所涉及的不確定性和傳統(tǒng)文獻(xiàn)有所不同,以往關(guān)于不確定性與消費(fèi)的研究以預(yù)防性?xún)?chǔ)蓄或流動(dòng)性約束為主,側(cè)重未來(lái)收入不確定性與當(dāng)前預(yù)防性?xún)?chǔ)蓄的關(guān)系,我們所關(guān)注的,是以不可預(yù)測(cè)的自然災(zāi)害為主體的突發(fā)事件對(duì)人們消費(fèi)決策的影響。這在我國(guó)目前有較為普遍的意義。本世紀(jì)以來(lái),國(guó)內(nèi)各地自然災(zāi)害頻繁發(fā)生,災(zāi)害發(fā)生的時(shí)間、規(guī)模基本不可預(yù)測(cè),并常常持續(xù)相當(dāng)?shù)臅r(shí)間和頻率,危害當(dāng)?shù)鼐用袢松戆踩?也增大了財(cái)產(chǎn)損失的可能。突發(fā)事件導(dǎo)致的不確定性增長(zhǎng),可能改變個(gè)人的消費(fèi)決策,這種消費(fèi)支出和預(yù)防性?xún)?chǔ)蓄的本質(zhì)一樣,是為了降低不確定性沖擊而加以保險(xiǎn)。這里涉及到的不僅是未來(lái)收入降低(損失),還包括傷亡風(fēng)險(xiǎn),是以往文獻(xiàn)未考慮的。出于對(duì)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)的規(guī)避,部分人群會(huì)采取一定的自我保護(hù)措施,如購(gòu)買(mǎi)保險(xiǎn)(目前自然災(zāi)害險(xiǎn)種極少且門(mén)檻較高),或更換更安全的房屋居住,甚至進(jìn)行區(qū)域遷移。我們想要證實(shí)的,是突發(fā)事件的不確定性和常見(jiàn)的收入不確定性相比,二者體現(xiàn)出的消費(fèi)者行為變化是否一致?如果不一致,又有著怎樣的規(guī)律?另一方面,通過(guò)研究不同人群的自我保護(hù)策略,分析其行為決策對(duì)受災(zāi)城市經(jīng)濟(jì)波動(dòng)、消費(fèi)市場(chǎng),以及人力資本流動(dòng)的影響,對(duì)制定適宜的災(zāi)后重建政策,促進(jìn)受災(zāi)城市的經(jīng)濟(jì)恢復(fù)和社會(huì)穩(wěn)定,具有積極的現(xiàn)實(shí)意義。 論文的內(nèi)容分為六章： 第一章主要對(duì)本文的研究背景、問(wèn)題和所采用的方法進(jìn)行說(shuō)明,并總結(jié)論文的創(chuàng)新點(diǎn)和不足。在方法部分,側(cè)重于對(duì)第三至五章的實(shí)證部分采用的方法和主要結(jié)論進(jìn)行初步說(shuō)明。 第二章對(duì)國(guó)內(nèi)外消費(fèi)理論發(fā)展及相關(guān)研究回顧并作出評(píng)述。提出本文的理論基礎(chǔ),與相關(guān)理論的傳承和區(qū)別,并提出本文的創(chuàng)新和不足。 第三章基于社會(huì)互動(dòng)理論,驗(yàn)證消費(fèi)活動(dòng)中存在的溢出效應(yīng),并探討溢出效應(yīng)的形成機(jī)制。本章建立了社會(huì)互動(dòng)過(guò)程的理論模型,并采用由中國(guó)國(guó)家統(tǒng)計(jì)局農(nóng)調(diào)隊(duì)進(jìn)行的,覆蓋全國(guó)范圍的城郊、鄉(xiāng)鎮(zhèn)和農(nóng)村家庭的耐用品消費(fèi)調(diào)查數(shù)據(jù),構(gòu)建線性概率模型和風(fēng)險(xiǎn)函數(shù)(Harzard function)分解,并運(yùn)用代理變量和工具變量的兩階段最小二乘法回歸,得出較為穩(wěn)健的結(jié)果。 第四章以自我保護(hù)理論為基礎(chǔ),研究自然災(zāi)害的不確定性對(duì)居民消費(fèi)行為的影響以及人力資本流動(dòng)的沖擊。利用汶川地震后,對(duì)主要受災(zāi)的大中城市房地產(chǎn)市場(chǎng)進(jìn)行調(diào)查得到的微觀數(shù)據(jù),對(duì)自我保護(hù)理論和預(yù)防儲(chǔ)蓄理論進(jìn)行檢驗(yàn)并得出結(jié)論。 第五章,在第四部分研究的基礎(chǔ)上進(jìn)一步拓展,構(gòu)建離散選擇連續(xù)內(nèi)生解釋變量模型(Discret Choice Model with Continous Edougenous Explanatory Variables),側(cè)重討論自我保護(hù)和自我保險(xiǎn)理論的區(qū)別及不同的決定因素,并研究在支付成本可預(yù)期與不可完全預(yù)期的情況下消費(fèi)者行為的差異。 第六章,對(duì)前幾章的相關(guān)理論和實(shí)證結(jié)果進(jìn)行總結(jié),提出研究不可避免的局限性及后續(xù)研究的拓展,以及相關(guān)的政策建議。 本文的主要結(jié)論如下： 1、以中國(guó)農(nóng)村耐用品消費(fèi)為例,研究發(fā)現(xiàn),農(nóng)村家庭的彩電、洗衣機(jī)等耐用品消費(fèi)會(huì)顯著受到村莊以?xún)?nèi)其他村民消費(fèi)行為的影響,1997-1999年,樣本中彩電消費(fèi)50.5%的購(gòu)買(mǎi)率源于他人消費(fèi)的帶動(dòng),也就是內(nèi)生的社會(huì)互動(dòng)的作用,尤其是當(dāng)新產(chǎn)品推出或家庭的首次購(gòu)買(mǎi)時(shí)效果最大。證實(shí)了消費(fèi)行為中存在溢出效應(yīng),而形成的機(jī)制,源于消費(fèi)者在社會(huì)互動(dòng)中的社會(huì)性學(xué)習(xí)與信息共享。90年代末,中國(guó)農(nóng)村家庭購(gòu)買(mǎi)耐用品的目的側(cè)重商品使用性能,收入的差別對(duì)溢出的作用并不顯著,受到更好教育的戶(hù)主進(jìn)行社會(huì)性學(xué)習(xí)的能力越強(qiáng),消費(fèi)的溢出效應(yīng)越大,并排除了消費(fèi)的攀比或羊群效應(yīng)。我們相信,溢出效應(yīng)在消費(fèi)活動(dòng)中是普遍的,但溢出的機(jī)制會(huì)有一定差異。比如奢侈品消費(fèi)會(huì)呈現(xiàn)更強(qiáng)的攀比或財(cái)富顯示的特征,選擇的樣本數(shù)據(jù)和時(shí)間跨度不同,會(huì)反映出不同的規(guī)律。 2、預(yù)防性?xún)?chǔ)蓄理論最主要的結(jié)論在于：不確定性同財(cái)富積累之間有正相關(guān)關(guān)系,不確定性越高,財(cái)富的預(yù)防性積累越多(Fisher,1956:Skinner, 1988；Guiso,Terlizzese,1992)；個(gè)人對(duì)當(dāng)前收入或財(cái)富更加敏感,同時(shí)對(duì)預(yù)期的將來(lái)收入有較低反應(yīng)(Zeldes,1989).我們通過(guò)汶川地震的自然實(shí)驗(yàn),發(fā)現(xiàn)消費(fèi)者在災(zāi)害之后會(huì)實(shí)施自我保護(hù)的措施,主要通過(guò)增大預(yù)防性消費(fèi)來(lái)實(shí)現(xiàn),例如,地震后偏好較低的樓層或者建筑質(zhì)量更好的房屋,甚至進(jìn)行區(qū)域遷移。由于同時(shí)存在傷亡風(fēng)險(xiǎn)和財(cái)產(chǎn)風(fēng)險(xiǎn),我們得到與以往研究不同的結(jié)論：不確定性與預(yù)防性消費(fèi)不完全是正相關(guān)關(guān)系,會(huì)由收入差異而不同。低收入者會(huì)根據(jù)不確定性的大小選擇預(yù)防性消費(fèi),二者是正相關(guān)的；然而,高收入者的預(yù)防性消費(fèi)不受風(fēng)險(xiǎn)大小的影響,過(guò)去發(fā)生的突發(fā)事件成為顯示信號(hào),無(wú)論未來(lái)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)如何,高收入者會(huì)進(jìn)行更多的預(yù)防性消費(fèi)。地震后,消費(fèi)者更青睞較低的居住樓層;高收入群體有更強(qiáng)的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)厭惡程度,將在震后選擇質(zhì)量更好的房屋；區(qū)域性的購(gòu)房?jī)?yōu)惠補(bǔ)貼政策對(duì)大中城市商品房市場(chǎng)將起到一定的穩(wěn)定作用。 3.采用汶川震區(qū)周邊大中城市的問(wèn)卷調(diào)查數(shù)據(jù),利用地震前后人們住房選擇變化來(lái)檢驗(yàn)消費(fèi)者對(duì)不確定事件及其信息的反應(yīng),從自我保護(hù)和自我保險(xiǎn)理論出發(fā),論證二者不同的決定因素,并研究在預(yù)防性消費(fèi)支出可預(yù)期與不可完全預(yù)期的情況下消費(fèi)者行為的差異。從實(shí)證的角度驗(yàn)證了自我保險(xiǎn)行為受收入分布的影響,自我保護(hù)行為更多受個(gè)人風(fēng)險(xiǎn)偏好的影響。同時(shí)表明,對(duì)受災(zāi)區(qū)域大中城市的房地產(chǎn)市場(chǎng)而言,地震以后,收入越高的群體將更注重房屋建筑質(zhì)量,高質(zhì)量房屋的相對(duì)需求會(huì)有一定增長(zhǎng)。在長(zhǎng)期,女性、有小孩的家庭以及受損嚴(yán)重市縣的消費(fèi)者將更注重房屋的抗震強(qiáng)度,而震后及時(shí)實(shí)行的購(gòu)房補(bǔ)貼優(yōu)惠政策對(duì)商品房市場(chǎng)的穩(wěn)定起到了一定的促進(jìn)作用。從長(zhǎng)期來(lái)看,地震對(duì)商品房市場(chǎng)的整體影響并不太大,尤其是地震導(dǎo)致的心理沖擊對(duì)消費(fèi)者并不構(gòu)成顯著影響,針對(duì)商品房市場(chǎng)的相關(guān)政策,可以短期為主,旨在減少房地產(chǎn)價(jià)格的波動(dòng)；在長(zhǎng)期,尤其是以居住需求為主的家庭消費(fèi)更注重房屋質(zhì)量,復(fù)核和調(diào)整工程建設(shè)的抗震設(shè)防標(biāo)準(zhǔn)、注重建筑物的抗震性,提高城市住房的安全性和保障性,在災(zāi)后重建中更顯得尤為重要。 本文的主要?jiǎng)?chuàng)新點(diǎn)包括： 第一,論文選題的新穎性。目前國(guó)內(nèi)外關(guān)于非市場(chǎng)因素對(duì)消費(fèi)行為的實(shí)證研究較少,本文從社會(huì)互動(dòng)、不確定性等不同的方面對(duì)消費(fèi)行為理論進(jìn)行豐富與拓展,證實(shí)社會(huì)互動(dòng)、信息共享與知識(shí)溢出對(duì)消費(fèi)有正的外部性并促進(jìn)消費(fèi)的可持續(xù)增長(zhǎng)。同時(shí),采用“自然實(shí)驗(yàn)”的實(shí)證思想刻畫(huà)不確定性對(duì)住房消費(fèi)支出的影響。在現(xiàn)今國(guó)內(nèi)外的有關(guān)房地產(chǎn)的研究當(dāng)中,采用自然實(shí)驗(yàn)的方法進(jìn)行深入的研究相對(duì)較少,尤其是在國(guó)內(nèi)的現(xiàn)有文獻(xiàn)來(lái)看更是如此。采用“自然實(shí)驗(yàn)”的方法在很大程度上由于它的完全隨機(jī)性可以解決很多經(jīng)濟(jì)問(wèn)題的內(nèi)生性,因此在理論的證實(shí)或證偽以及對(duì)現(xiàn)實(shí)問(wèn)題的研究過(guò)程中占有重要地位。 第二,學(xué)術(shù)觀點(diǎn)的創(chuàng)新性。論文提出了以下較有創(chuàng)新性的結(jié)論：(1)消費(fèi)的外部性產(chǎn)生的途徑之一源于于人與人之間思想、信息與創(chuàng)意的交流與共享形成的知識(shí)外溢效應(yīng),從另一個(gè)角度驗(yàn)證了知識(shí)溢出已成為經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)與社會(huì)和諧發(fā)展的核心要素。(2)內(nèi)生的社會(huì)互動(dòng)的作用,尤其是當(dāng)新產(chǎn)品推出或家庭的首次購(gòu)買(mǎi)時(shí)效果最大。受到更好教育的戶(hù)主進(jìn)行社會(huì)性學(xué)習(xí)的能力越強(qiáng),消費(fèi)的溢出效應(yīng)越大。(3)不確定性與預(yù)防性消費(fèi)不完全是正相關(guān)關(guān)系,會(huì)由收入差異而不同。低收入者會(huì)根據(jù)不確定性的大小選擇預(yù)防性消費(fèi),二者是正相關(guān)的；然而,高收入者的預(yù)防性消費(fèi)不受風(fēng)險(xiǎn)大小的影響,過(guò)去發(fā)生的突發(fā)事件成為顯示信號(hào),無(wú)論未來(lái)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)如何,高收入者會(huì)進(jìn)行更多的預(yù)防性消費(fèi)。 第三、微觀數(shù)據(jù)的獨(dú)特性。第三部分的研究中,我們使用覆蓋全國(guó)各省的城郊、鄉(xiāng)鎮(zhèn)和農(nóng)村居民樣本進(jìn)行實(shí)證研究,結(jié)果具有一定的代表性和普遍性；第四、第五部分,筆者設(shè)計(jì)了受災(zāi)城市居民微觀消費(fèi)行為及個(gè)人特征的調(diào)查問(wèn)卷,在實(shí)地調(diào)研、廣泛論證的基礎(chǔ)上,累計(jì)發(fā)放調(diào)查問(wèn)卷一千五百多份,收回有效問(wèn)卷一千余份,獲得了及時(shí)的第一手研究數(shù)據(jù)。這些研究數(shù)據(jù),有力地支持了本文的研究結(jié)論,具有可再利用性和共享性,對(duì)后續(xù)研究具有積極的參考價(jià)值。 本文還存在著許多不足之處,希望得到各位專(zhuān)家的批評(píng)和指正。 (一)雖然本文對(duì)居民的消費(fèi)需求的影響進(jìn)行了系統(tǒng)的實(shí)證分析,但由于影響因素的復(fù)雜性、多樣性以及資料不足,尚有部分結(jié)果不能更加嚴(yán)謹(jǐn)?shù)恼撟C,比如耐用品消費(fèi)中品牌效應(yīng)的論證不能區(qū)分溢出效應(yīng)的類(lèi)型。 (二)數(shù)據(jù)的特征變量,尤其是第二問(wèn)卷的家庭特征不夠充足,難以獲得更穩(wěn)健的檢驗(yàn)。由于是橫截面數(shù)據(jù),目前無(wú)法在時(shí)間跨度上對(duì)預(yù)防性消費(fèi)的跨期分配進(jìn)行檢驗(yàn),如果有地震較長(zhǎng)時(shí)間后再一次調(diào)查的數(shù)據(jù),將會(huì)得到一些更有趣的結(jié)論,例如收入和風(fēng)險(xiǎn)主觀判斷對(duì)市場(chǎng)影響時(shí)間的長(zhǎng)短,高收入人群與低收入人群的預(yù)防性消費(fèi)是否會(huì)隨著時(shí)間而變化等等,能夠更好地完善理論和實(shí)證假說(shuō)。
[Abstract]:In the traditional economics , the price theory is the core of the whole economic theory . The formation process of price , usually the different relevant actors react independently to the market signal , and the people who respond indirectly to the market signal form the main body of action in the economics theory .

The starting point of the research is two : one is the social interaction as the medium , the relationship between the consumption decision of the individual and the consumption behavior of the reference group is observed , and the mechanism of the action is observed . The social interaction mentioned here is originally derived from the concept of sociology , the interaction between the person and the person in a specific social situation and the influence on each other . From the economics , the influence is not directly generated in the market through price change ( Baker and Murphy , 2000 ) . Reference groups may vary depending on the background of the study ( Scheinkman , 2005 ) , such as families , friends , neighbors or colleagues of an individual , but they all have to come from a common social distance space based on individual feelings ( Akerlof , 1997 ) . The significance lies in that social interaction is one of the effective ways of information transmission , which can make the interactive group obtain information without or pay less cost . On the other hand , the behavior of the group can play a role in the individual and interact with each other , such as the overflow effect proposed in the consumption theory , or the external property . For example , since the end of 2008 , our country has formulated a series of policies for consumer goods consumption and pulling domestic demand , such as household appliances , building materials , new energy - saving electric appliance consumption subsidies , etc .

Second , by means of the natural experiment formed by the emergency , we quantify the response of people in the face of uncertain events , and then influence the consumption decision - making and the market .

The contents of the thesis are divided into six chapters :

In the first chapter , the background , problems and methods used in this paper are explained , and the innovation points and shortcomings of the thesis are summarized . In the method part , the methods and main conclusions adopted in the empirical part of the third to fifth chapters are mainly described .

The second chapter reviews and comments on the development of consumption theory at home and abroad and the related research . The paper puts forward the theoretical basis , the inheritance and the difference of the relevant theories , and puts forward the innovation and deficiency of this paper .

In chapter 3 , based on the theory of social interaction , the spillover effect exists in the consumption activity , and the formation mechanism of spillover effect is discussed . In this chapter , the theoretical model of social interaction process is established , and the survey data of the consumption of durable goods in the suburbs , towns and rural families covering the whole country , which is carried out by the National Bureau of Statistics of China , is used to construct the linear probability model and the risk function decomposition , and the two - stage least square regression of the agent variable and the tool variable is used to obtain a more robust result .

In chapter 4 , based on the theory of self - protection , the influence of the uncertainty of natural disasters on the behavior of residents and the impact of human capital flow are studied . After the Wenchuan earthquake , the micro data obtained from the investigation of the real estate market of the major affected cities is analyzed , and the self - protection theory and the prevention deposit theory are tested and concluded .

In chapter 5 , on the basis of the research of the fourth part , we further expand the discrete choice continuous endogenetic interpretation variable model ( Discret Choice Model with Theory ous Edoused Variable Variables ) , focus on the differences between self - protection and self - insurance theory and different determinants , and study the difference of consumer behavior when the payment cost is expected and cannot be fully expected .

Chapter 6 summarizes the relevant theories and empirical results of the previous chapters , and puts forward the inevitable limitation of the study and the expansion of the follow - up study , as well as the relevant policy recommendations .

The main conclusions are as follows :

1 . As an example , the study shows that the consumption of durable goods such as color TV and washing machine in rural households is significantly affected by other villagers ' consumption behavior within the village . In 1997 - 1999 , the purchasing rate of 50.5 % of color TV consumption in rural households is due to the consumption of others , which is the effect of the consumer ' s social interaction . It is believed that the spillover effect is common in the consumption activity , but the spillover effect is different . For example , the consumption of luxury goods will show stronger climbing or wealth display characteristics , and different patterns are reflected in the selected sample data and time span .

2 . The most important conclusion of the theory of preventive savings lies in the positive correlation between uncertainty and wealth accumulation , the higher the uncertainty , the more preventive accumulation of wealth ( Fisher , 1956 : Skinner , 1988 ;
Guiso , Terlizzese , 1992 ) ;
Individuals are more sensitive to current income or wealth while at the same time have a lower response to the expected future income ( Zeldes , 1989 ) . Through the natural experiment of Wenchuan earthquake , we find that consumers will implement self - protection measures after the disaster , mainly by increasing the preventive consumption . For example , after the earthquake , we get better houses and even carry out regional migration . As a result of the risk of casualty and property , we get different conclusions from previous studies : uncertainty is positively related to preventive consumption , which is different from the income difference .
However , the preventive consumption of the high - income people is not influenced by the risk size . In the past , the emergency becomes the display signal , and no matter how the future risks , the high - income people will carry out more preventive consumption . After the earthquake , consumers prefer lower residential floors ; higher income groups have stronger risk aversion levels , and will choose better quality houses after the earthquake ;
The regional purchasing preferential subsidy policy will play a certain stabilizing role in the commercial housing market in China .

3 . Based on the survey data of the large and medium - sized cities around Wenchuan earthquake area , the change of housing selection before and after the earthquake is used to verify the consumers ' response to uncertain events and their information . In the long term , the higher the income will pay more attention to the housing ' s seismic intensity . In the long term , the higher the income of housing subsidy will pay more attention to the seismic intensity of the housing market . In the long term , the impact of the earthquake on the housing market is not too big , especially the impact on the housing market , which can be short - term , and aims at reducing the fluctuation of real estate price .
In the long run , especially the household consumption based on the living needs pays more attention to the quality of the house , check and adjust the seismic fortification standards of the project construction , pay attention to the earthquake resistance of the building , improve the safety and security of the urban housing , and become more important in the post - disaster reconstruction .

The main innovations of this article include :

At the same time , in the domestic and foreign research of real estate , this paper studies the influence of uncertainty on the consumption of housing consumption . At the same time , the method of " natural experiment " is used to study the influence of uncertainty on the consumption of housing . At the same time , the method of " natural experiment " is used to solve many economic problems .

Second , the innovation of academic viewpoint . The paper puts forward the following innovative conclusion : ( 1 ) One of the ways of the external creation of consumption derives from the knowledge spillover effect formed by the exchange and sharing of thought , information and creativity between man and man .
However , the preventive consumption of high - income people is not influenced by the risk size , and in the past , unexpected emergencies have become the display signals , and the high - income people will carry out more preventive consumption regardless of the future risks .

Thirdly , in the study of the third part , we study the sample of villages , towns and rural residents covering all provinces of the country . The results are representative and universal ;
The fourth and fifth part , the author designed the questionnaire of the micro - consumption behavior and personal characteristics of the residents in the affected city . On the basis of field investigation and extensive demonstration , more than 1,500 questionnaires were distributed , more than 1,000 questionnaires were collected , and the first - hand study data were obtained .

There are many shortcomings in this paper , and it is hoped that all experts will be criticized and pointed out .

( 1 ) Although this paper makes a systematic empirical analysis on the effect of the consumption demand of the residents , some results cannot be more rigorous proof because of the complexity , diversity and insufficient information of the influencing factors , such as the demonstration of the brand effect in the consumption of durable goods cannot distinguish the types of spillover effects .

( 2 ) The characteristic variables of the data , especially the second questionnaire , are not enough to obtain more robust test . Because of the cross - sectional data , it is impossible to test the cross - period distribution of the preventive consumption on the time span . If there is more data after the earthquake for a long time , it will get some more interesting conclusions , such as the subjective judgment of income and risk , the length of the influence time of the market , whether the preventive consumption of the high - income population and the low - income population can change over time , etc . , and can better perfect the theory and the demonstration hypothesis .

【學(xué)位授予單位】：西南財(cái)經(jīng)大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：博士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2010
【分類(lèi)號(hào)】：F126

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本文編號(hào)：1742339