本文關(guān)鍵詞： 村鎮(zhèn) 地震災(zāi)害 應(yīng)急救援 恢復(fù)重建 決策方法與模型　出處：《哈爾濱工業(yè)大學(xué)》2017年博士論文　論文類型：學(xué)位論文

【摘要】：廣大村鎮(zhèn)是我國受地震災(zāi)害影響及受災(zāi)情況最為嚴(yán)重的地區(qū),同時也是應(yīng)急救援的薄弱環(huán)節(jié)、亟需加強恢復(fù)重建工作的重災(zāi)區(qū)。與城市相比,我國村鎮(zhèn)承災(zāi)體更加脆弱易受破壞,極大加劇了地震災(zāi)害對村鎮(zhèn)造成的不利影響和損失程度,延誤恢復(fù)重建進度,給村鎮(zhèn)震后的應(yīng)急救援及重建決策工作帶來嚴(yán)峻挑戰(zhàn),而這主要與應(yīng)急救援決策者的決策水平和決策方法直接相關(guān)。因此,依據(jù)村鎮(zhèn)承災(zāi)體特性、地震災(zāi)害相關(guān)理論,通過對村鎮(zhèn)震后災(zāi)情狀況、災(zāi)情信息規(guī)律進行分析,結(jié)合村鎮(zhèn)與城市震后應(yīng)急救援及重建差異,構(gòu)建村鎮(zhèn)震后災(zāi)情信息集成、村鎮(zhèn)震后應(yīng)急救援及重建決策的研究框架、決策方法與模型,為村鎮(zhèn)震后應(yīng)急救援及重建決策提供科學(xué)的理論和方法指導(dǎo),提高村鎮(zhèn)應(yīng)急救援及恢復(fù)重建效率,確保各項工作順利進行。然而,現(xiàn)有的針對村鎮(zhèn)應(yīng)急救援及重建決策的理論和方法較為欠缺,多照搬城市,未結(jié)合村鎮(zhèn)實際地域情境,缺乏對村鎮(zhèn)地震災(zāi)害特點、村鎮(zhèn)承災(zāi)環(huán)境、村鎮(zhèn)社會環(huán)境、村鎮(zhèn)自身承災(zāi)體特性以及村鎮(zhèn)與城市差異等因素的針對性及系統(tǒng)性研究,缺乏涵蓋從村鎮(zhèn)震后應(yīng)急救援到恢復(fù)重建過程的相關(guān)決策理論體系及針對性的決策方法,且多數(shù)的研究方法通常集中于定性方面,很少有相關(guān)研究涉及量化方面。因此,為提升政府等決策主體面對村鎮(zhèn)地震災(zāi)害的應(yīng)急決策水平,有必要構(gòu)建村鎮(zhèn)震后應(yīng)急救援及重建決策理論體系,涵蓋從災(zāi)情分析、應(yīng)急救援到恢復(fù)重建的決策工作,在此基礎(chǔ)上對決策方法進行系統(tǒng)、定量及應(yīng)用研究,目前涉及上述研究內(nèi)容的相關(guān)文獻較少。本文以村鎮(zhèn)震后應(yīng)急救援及恢復(fù)重建決策相關(guān)理論、村鎮(zhèn)震后應(yīng)急救援及重建決策研究的方法與模型框架作為理論基礎(chǔ),從村鎮(zhèn)與城市震后應(yīng)急救援及重建差異分析入手,構(gòu)建涵蓋決策主體、決策系統(tǒng)、決策目標(biāo)、決策準(zhǔn)則的村鎮(zhèn)震后應(yīng)急救援及重建決策研究框架,采用系統(tǒng)動力學(xué)模型,動態(tài)網(wǎng)絡(luò)模型,改進的免疫譜聚類Nystr?m遺傳算法,改進的粒子群優(yōu)化神經(jīng)網(wǎng)絡(luò)(MPSOBP)算法,群決策算法,馬爾科夫最優(yōu)停止模型,改進的恢復(fù)力三角函數(shù)等定性與定量相結(jié)合的多種研究方法,提出村鎮(zhèn)震后災(zāi)情信息分析方法、應(yīng)急救援決策方法以及重建決策方法,并通過發(fā)生在我國村鎮(zhèn)災(zāi)區(qū)的地震災(zāi)害真實案例進行實證分析,檢驗方法的有效性。為村鎮(zhèn)災(zāi)區(qū)的災(zāi)情信息集成分析、災(zāi)情信息披露影響應(yīng)急救援效用分析、災(zāi)情突發(fā)期的生命救援決策、災(zāi)情持續(xù)期的臨時安置決策、災(zāi)情衰落期的終止救援決策以及災(zāi)后平靜期的恢復(fù)重建決策行為提供理論體系支撐和方法支持。本文面向決策主體及村鎮(zhèn)災(zāi)民,構(gòu)建面向村鎮(zhèn)震后應(yīng)急救援決策的災(zāi)情信息集成模型,以及災(zāi)情信息披露影響村鎮(zhèn)震后應(yīng)急救援決策效用的網(wǎng)絡(luò)模型。通過分析村鎮(zhèn)災(zāi)情信息概念、分類及規(guī)律,依據(jù)災(zāi)情信息集成原理,研究災(zāi)情信息集成系統(tǒng)內(nèi)、外部因素的相互作用和關(guān)系,構(gòu)建面向村鎮(zhèn)震后應(yīng)急救援決策的災(zāi)情信息集成模型,為村鎮(zhèn)災(zāi)情信息轉(zhuǎn)化為決策信息的過程提供理論與方法支持,并對集成系統(tǒng)各集成環(huán)節(jié)進行分析,探究其相互作用原理和機制;從災(zāi)情信息對村鎮(zhèn)災(zāi)區(qū)災(zāi)民的影響角度,采用管理學(xué)中網(wǎng)絡(luò)思想,構(gòu)建災(zāi)情信息披露影響決策效用的網(wǎng)絡(luò)模型,考察災(zāi)情信息披露對村鎮(zhèn)應(yīng)急救援效用的影響,從而得出決策主體在實行不同的災(zāi)情披露機制下,對村鎮(zhèn)災(zāi)民及決策效用產(chǎn)生的影響,明確作為決策主體為達到?jīng)Q策目標(biāo)應(yīng)采取的行為措施。本文建立多種村鎮(zhèn)震后應(yīng)急救援決策方法模型,依據(jù)村鎮(zhèn)震后應(yīng)急救援任務(wù)和階段劃分,進行村鎮(zhèn)震后應(yīng)急救援決策方法研究。按照村鎮(zhèn)震后各應(yīng)急救援階段的決策需求,建立基于易損性的村鎮(zhèn)震后災(zāi)情突發(fā)期人口救援決策模型、基于MPSOBP的村鎮(zhèn)震后物資救援決策模型、村鎮(zhèn)震后災(zāi)情持續(xù)期臨時安置決策模型、基于Markov最優(yōu)的村鎮(zhèn)震后應(yīng)急救援終止決策模型,并進行實例應(yīng)用分析,分別對村鎮(zhèn)震后的生命救援、臨時安置、終止救援等方面提供理論及方法支持,并進行實證分析檢驗。本文構(gòu)建村鎮(zhèn)震后恢復(fù)重建決策模型,以及基于優(yōu)先度的村鎮(zhèn)路網(wǎng)重建決策模型。村鎮(zhèn)的震后恢復(fù)重建工作,往往要將原有廢墟推平,對村鎮(zhèn)災(zāi)區(qū)重新進行規(guī)劃和建設(shè)。通過構(gòu)建村鎮(zhèn)震后恢復(fù)重建決策模型,對地震災(zāi)害恢復(fù)力三角模型進行改進,為村鎮(zhèn)災(zāi)區(qū)恢復(fù)力的量化提供更為簡便、準(zhǔn)確的計算方法,從村鎮(zhèn)恢復(fù)重建期最主要的四個恢復(fù)維度:人口、建筑物、基礎(chǔ)設(shè)施、經(jīng)濟水平等四個方面,進行恢復(fù)力量化的研究,以分析和評價村鎮(zhèn)災(zāi)區(qū)的恢復(fù)速度;同時結(jié)合村鎮(zhèn)災(zāi)區(qū)交通路網(wǎng)的震后特點,計算恢復(fù)優(yōu)先度,構(gòu)建基于優(yōu)先度的村鎮(zhèn)路網(wǎng)重建決策模型,從而確定恢復(fù)重建期的村鎮(zhèn)交通路網(wǎng)恢復(fù)順序。本文以應(yīng)急救援及恢復(fù)重建相關(guān)理論和決策方法模型為基礎(chǔ),通過分析村鎮(zhèn)與城市震后差異,構(gòu)建村鎮(zhèn)震后應(yīng)急救援及重建決策研究框架和決策方法的量化模型,旨在彌補目前村鎮(zhèn)震后應(yīng)急救援決策及重建研究理論和決策方法定量分析的不足,有望對我國未來加快鄉(xiāng)村小城鎮(zhèn)防災(zāi)減災(zāi)建設(shè)提供決策支持,為提升村鎮(zhèn)應(yīng)急救援及重建決策效率和水平,加強并完善村鎮(zhèn)應(yīng)急管理理論與方法體系建設(shè),為政府為主的決策主體在村鎮(zhèn)震后應(yīng)急救援以及恢復(fù)重建決策工作中提供理論依據(jù)和方法支持。
[Abstract]:The village is in our country is affected by the earthquake disaster and the disaster situation is the most serious area, the weak link is also an urgent need to strengthen emergency rescue, recovery and reconstruction work in the hardest hit. Compared with the city, our country rural disaster more vulnerable vulnerable, greatly increasing the extent of earthquake disaster on the village caused by adverse effects and loss, delay reconstruction progress, bring severe challenges to the emergency rescue and reconstruction work after the earthquake and village decision-making, decision-making level and decision-making method mainly with emergency decision makers directly related. Therefore, based on the characteristics of rural disaster bearing body, earthquake disaster related theory, through the village post earthquake disaster situation, disaster information analysis and combined with the emergency rescue and reconstruction of villages and the city after the earthquake, the earthquake disaster difference, constructing information integration, the research framework of post earthquake emergency rescue and reconstruction of rural decision-making, decision-making The method and model, provide the theory and method of scientific guidance for rural reconstruction and post earthquake emergency rescue decision-making, improve rural emergency relief and recovery efficiency, ensure the smooth progress of the work. However, the existing theories and methods for the rural emergency rescue and reconstruction decision is not much, copy the city, not with the actual situation of rural areas. Lack of the characteristics of the earthquake disaster village, Cun Zhencheng village environment, social environment, and its bearing characteristics and disaster factors such as differences in the village and the city for the research and system, lack of cover from the village post earthquake emergency rescue to the restoration and reconstruction of the theoretical system for decision-making and decision methods, and most of the research methods usually focus on the qualitative aspect, there are few studies involving the quantification. Therefore, in order to improve the government decision-making body face of rural earthquake disasters should Emergency decision level, it is necessary to build the rural reconstruction and post earthquake emergency rescue decision theory system, ranging from disaster analysis, emergency rescue to the restoration and reconstruction of the decision, on the basis of the decision making method of system, quantitative research and application, the relevant literature little involves the research contents of this paper. In the post earthquake emergency rescue and reconstruction of villages and towns decision theory, method of earthquake emergency rescue and reconstruction of rural policy research and model framework as the theoretical basis, starting from the analysis of emergency rescue and reconstruction of villages and the city after the difference, construction covers the decision-making body, decision-making system, decision-making, decision rule, earthquake emergency rescue and rebuilding rural decision-making research framework, using the system dynamics model, dynamic the network model, the improved immune spectral clustering Nystr? M genetic algorithm, particle swarm optimization improved neural network algorithm (MPSOBP), group The decision algorithm, the Markoff optimal stopping model, a variety of research methods to improve the resilience of trigonometric function as the combination of qualitative and quantitative, and give the earthquake disaster emergency rescue information analysis method, decision method and decision making method of reconstruction, and through an analysis of real cases occurred in China earthquake disaster stricken villages, verify the effectiveness of the method for disaster information analysis of village disaster, emergency rescue effect analysis of disaster information disclosure, life rescue decision disaster emergency period, the duration of the temporary resettlement decision-making, disaster rescue decision and the termination of the period of decline after the disaster quiet period to provide theoretical support and method support system restoration decision-making behavior. The decision subject village and victims of disaster information integration model construction for rural earthquake emergency rescue decision, and disaster information disclosure. Ring network model village post earthquake emergency rescue decision utility. Through the analysis of rural disaster information concept, classification and rules, according to the principle of integrated disaster information, disaster information system integration, interaction and relationship between external factors, construction of information integration model for the village after the earthquake disaster emergency rescue decision, for the village into providing disaster information the theory and method of decision support process information, and the integrated part of the integrated system for analysis, to explore the interaction principle and mechanism; from the impact of disaster information on rural disaster victims angle, the management of network ideological construction, disaster information disclosure influence network model of decision utility, disaster investigation information disclosure effect rescue utility the emergency of the village, so that decision-makers in the implementation of different disaster disclosure mechanism, produced by the use of rural victims and decision. Influence of decision-makers is to clear as the decision goal should take action measures. This paper establishes a model of Emergency Rescue Decision Method of various villages and towns after the earthquake, according to division of emergency rescue missions and stage of villages and towns after the earthquake, the emergency rescue decision method. According to the village after village town after the emergency rescue stage of the decision-making needs, the establishment of village post earthquake disaster emergency period population vulnerability based on Rescue Decision Model, rural earthquake aid decision-making model based on MPSOBP, and the duration of the earthquake disaster temporary resettlement village post earthquake emergency rescue decision model, Markov optimal termination decision model based on application and analysis of village life rescue, after the earthquake were temporary resettlement, termination and provide relief and support, and makes an empirical test and analysis. In this paper, constructing the village reconstruction model, and Rural network reconstruction decision model based on the priority of the village. The post earthquake reconstruction work, often to the original ruins push, re planning and construction of rural disaster areas. Through the construction of village reconstruction on the decision model of restoring force of earthquake disaster triangle model was modified to provide quantitative restoring force for the village area is more convenient, accurate calculation methods, the four dimensions of recovery from the village reconstruction of the main population, buildings, infrastructure, four aspects such as economic level, study the strength, to restore the speed of analysis and evaluation of rural areas after the earthquake disaster; combined with the characteristics of the rural road network, the calculation of priority construction of rural network reconstruction, decision model based on priority, so as to determine the rural transportation network reconstruction in the recovery phase sequence. This paper takes emergency relief and recovery phase Model theory and decision method as the foundation, through the analysis of differences between rural and city construction in villages and towns after the earthquake, quantitative model of post earthquake emergency rescue and reconstruction decision research framework and methods of decision making, to compensate for the lack of the analysis of rural post earthquake emergency rescue decision and reconstruction of the theory and decision making method was, on China's future is expected to accelerate the construction of disaster prevention and reduction small towns in rural areas to provide decision support for emergency rescue and reconstruction of villages and towns to improve decision-making efficiency and level, strengthen and improve the rural emergency management theory and method of system construction, to provide a theoretical basis and support for the government as the main decision making body in the villages to the post earthquake emergency rescue and reconstruction work in decision-making.

【學(xué)位授予單位】：哈爾濱工業(yè)大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級別】：博士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2017
【分類號】：D63
，

本文編號：1459977