本文試圖分析加納的外債積累及其對(duì)經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)的影響。為了全面了解其對(duì)經(jīng)濟(jì)的影響,我們將對(duì)1980-2017年這38年期間的信息進(jìn)行仔細(xì)的實(shí)證檢驗(yàn)。選擇這一時(shí)期是為了涵蓋后債務(wù)減免時(shí)代之后的時(shí)期,而且加納的外債存量在過(guò)去10年中一直在增加。外債有促進(jìn)經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)的潛力;然而,缺乏審慎的債務(wù)管理框架可能會(huì)適得其反。這方面的文獻(xiàn)常常產(chǎn)生相互矛盾的結(jié)果。一些文獻(xiàn)假設(shè)外債積累對(duì)經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)有負(fù)面影響,而另一些文獻(xiàn)則預(yù)測(cè)有正面影響,有些文獻(xiàn)甚至認(rèn)為這兩個(gè)變量之間根本不存在相關(guān)性。學(xué)者們提出了各種理論來(lái)解釋外債問(wèn)題。這一理論包括雙重差距分析,解釋了經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展是有關(guān)于投資的函數(shù),然而這種投資在國(guó)民儲(chǔ)蓄率不足的情況下是無(wú)法促進(jìn)經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展的。本文利用1980-2017年加納國(guó)內(nèi)生產(chǎn)總值、外債存量、外債支付和匯率的時(shí)間序列數(shù)據(jù),實(shí)證檢驗(yàn)了外債積累對(duì)加納經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)的影響。首先,本文采用的估計(jì)策略包括增廣Dickey-Fuller(ADF)檢驗(yàn)、向量誤差修正和Johansen協(xié)整評(píng)價(jià),用于檢驗(yàn)1980-2017年間變量之間的因果關(guān)系。第二階段的結(jié)果表明,從長(zhǎng)期來(lái)看加納國(guó)內(nèi)生產(chǎn)總值增長(zhǎng)率與外債之間存在著顯著的正相關(guān)關(guān)系,表明外債對(duì)...

【文章頁(yè)數(shù)】：75 頁(yè)

【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士

【文章目錄】：
DEDICATIONS
ACKNOWLEDGMENTS
摘要
ABSTRACT
ABBREVIATIONS
CHAPTER ONE INTRODUCTION
    1.1 Background to the study
    1.2 Statement of Problem
    1.3 Objectives
    1.4 Research Hypothesis
    1.5 Significance of the Study
    1.6 Scope of the Study
    1.7 Data Sources
    1.8 Organization of the Study
    1.9 Contribution and Limitation
CHAPTER TWO LITERATURE REVIEW
    2.0 Introduction
    2.1 Theoretical Literature Review
        2.1.1 Theoretical Perspective on External Debt
    2.2 Factors and Theories of External Debt on the Economy growth
        2.2.1 Financing gap theory
        2.2.2 Determinants of rising external debts
        2.2.3 Direct Effect of Debt Hypothesis(DEDH)
        2.2.4 Direct Effect of Debt Hypothesis(DEDH)
        2.2.5 s(DOH)Debt Overhang Hypotheses
        2.2.6 The Ricardian Equivalence theorem
    2.3 Recent Empirical Review
        2.3.1 External debt and economic growth
    2.4 Overview of Literature
CHAPTER THREE GHANA’S EXTERNAL DEBTS OVERVIEW
    3.0 Introduction
    3.1 Ghana’s Economic and External Debts Discussion
        3.1.1 Debt cancellation but continued dependence
        3.1.2 Debt cancellation under the Heavily Indebted Poor Countries initiative
        3.1.3 How Ghana want into HIPC
    3.2 EXTERNAL DEBT STOCK
        3.2.1 Total external debt
        3.2.2 Source of funding
    3.3 External debt stocks(percentage of GDP)for Ghana
    3.4 Ghana Debt policy
        3.4.1 Debt Repayment
        3.4.2 The growth in Ghana’s external debt
        3.4.3 Domestic Debt
    3.5 How Ghana Debt are distributed by sector loan from World Bank
    3.6 Public External Debt in Africa
    3.7 East African Community Debt Situation
CHAPTER FOUR RESEARCH METHODOLOGY
    4.0 Introduction
    4.1 Research Design
    4.2 Estimation Technique
        4.2.1 Unit Root Test
        4.2.2 Co-integration
        4.2.3 Vector Error Correction Model
        4.2.4 Causality Test
    4.3 Model Specification
        4.3.1 The Model
    4.4 Conclusion
CHAPTER FIVE DATA ANALYSIS
    5.0 Introduction
    5.1 Descriptive statistics
    5.2 Testing for Stationarity
    5.3 Johansen Co-integration test
    5.4 Error Correction Estimates Using Vector Error Correction Model
    5.5 Granger Causality Test
    5.6 Conclusion
CHAPTER SIX CONCLUSIONS AND RECOMMENDATIONS
    6.0 Introduction
    6.1 Conclusions
    6.2 Summary of Findings
    6.3 Recommendation
REFERENCES



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