濰坊西能LNG加氣站項目經(jīng)濟(jì)評價研究
發(fā)布時間：2019-07-09 10:28
【摘要】：世界各地的能源需求正在不斷增加,預(yù)計將保持每年1.2%的平均增長率。由于化石燃料資源的龐大儲量和可利用性,可以預(yù)見,它們將繼續(xù)在世界能源經(jīng)濟(jì)中扮演重要角色。目前,化石能源提供世界上85%的商業(yè)能源需求。在我國,幾乎90%的電力需求來自于煤炭發(fā)電,本世紀(jì)的能源需求將增長一倍以上,將達(dá)到美國需求的1.3倍。目前,汽車消耗了一半以上的石油需求,這一需求預(yù)計將大幅增長。隨著發(fā)展中國家經(jīng)濟(jì)的增長和繁榮,發(fā)達(dá)國家的化石燃料需求預(yù)計將基本持平于發(fā)展中國家,而發(fā)展中國家的私人車輛將急劇增加。與此同時,盡管核能和可再生能源的利用率在逐年提高,但全球二氧化碳排放量預(yù)計將上升接近現(xiàn)在水平的30%。因此,為了滿足日益增長的能源需求,并減少大氣中的二氧化碳含量,尋找替代燃料以取代如柴油和汽油這樣的碳?xì)浠衔锶剂?導(dǎo)致產(chǎn)生了大量的不同的燃料,但其中很少可以大規(guī)模商業(yè)開發(fā)。天然氣是其中一種廣泛使用且可再生的能源(通過沼氣或生物甲烷),相比其他傳統(tǒng)和替代燃料產(chǎn)生較少的溫室氣體排放量。天然氣可以通過多種方式商用,有壓縮天然氣(CNG),液化天然氣(LNG)甚至摻氫。使用天然氣汽車(天然氣汽車)也有利于能源安全和能源多樣性。因此,由于其固有的環(huán)境友好性、更高的效率和更低的成本,天然氣已成為首選燃料。在天然氣長距離輸送方面,液化天然氣特別適合管道輸送。與所有的天然氣一樣,液化天然氣比煤和石油更清潔,并且提供了能源供應(yīng)多樣化的機(jī)會。因此,在天然氣市場,液化天然氣的使用已經(jīng)得到了全球的認(rèn)可。本文在前人的研究基礎(chǔ)之上,結(jié)合行業(yè)和企業(yè)實際情況,構(gòu)建了一套LNG加氣站經(jīng)濟(jì)評價指標(biāo)體系,并且采用了灰度預(yù)測方法,對未來LNG需求量做了預(yù)測,結(jié)合預(yù)測結(jié)果對濰坊西能LNG加氣站未來運營效果進(jìn)行綜合評價。本文的大致內(nèi)容為：本文以濰坊西能LNG加氣站的項目經(jīng)濟(jì)評價為研究對象,構(gòu)建濰坊西能LNG加氣站經(jīng)濟(jì)評價指標(biāo)體系,對西能LNG加氣站投資風(fēng)險進(jìn)行評價,并提出相應(yīng)的風(fēng)險防范與應(yīng)對措施,具有一定理論和現(xiàn)實意義。本文在對西能LNG加氣站項目進(jìn)行經(jīng)濟(jì)評價前,根據(jù)項目所在地以及周圍的經(jīng)濟(jì)情況和競爭環(huán)境,結(jié)合LNG加氣站項目自身的特點,對該區(qū)域以天然氣為燃料的汽車數(shù)量進(jìn)行了預(yù)測,即對該項目的未來市場需求進(jìn)行了研究,結(jié)論表明,LNG未來的需要量是巨大并持續(xù)增長的。并以此為前提,在對經(jīng)濟(jì)評價相關(guān)理論及文獻(xiàn)研究歸納的基礎(chǔ)上,依據(jù)項目經(jīng)濟(jì)評價指標(biāo)選取的原則以及項目本身的特點,選取了用于西能LNG加氣站項目財務(wù)評價和國民經(jīng)濟(jì)評價的指標(biāo),并構(gòu)建了適用性較強(qiáng)的指標(biāo)評價體系,基于該體系,對該項目的投資情況和經(jīng)濟(jì)效益情況進(jìn)行了分析,結(jié)果顯示,該項目在財務(wù)評價方面,具有較強(qiáng)的盈利能力和抗風(fēng)險能力,并且對項目經(jīng)濟(jì)效益影響最大的因素是天然氣的銷售價格,其次為原材料價格,在國民經(jīng)濟(jì)評價方面,該項目具有可觀的經(jīng)濟(jì)效益,對項目所在地壽光市的天然氣行業(yè)發(fā)展具有一定促進(jìn)作用,并可為當(dāng)?shù)貛硇碌木蜆I(yè)機(jī)會,促進(jìn)人們生活水平的改善和提高,國民經(jīng)濟(jì)效益明顯。最后,本文根據(jù)西能LNG加氣站項目的經(jīng)濟(jì)評價結(jié)果,對該項目的投資決策及運營提出了相關(guān)建議及展望。全文的創(chuàng)新在于：在內(nèi)容上,與國內(nèi)多數(shù)研究聚焦在加氣站選址、布局方面不同,本文將焦點放在了加氣站的經(jīng)濟(jì)評價上。在方法方面,本文在借鑒前人預(yù)測方法的基礎(chǔ)上,結(jié)合項目實際的情況,選用了灰度預(yù)測模型,將該模型創(chuàng)新地應(yīng)用在對該項目未來市場的研究當(dāng)中。對項目進(jìn)行經(jīng)濟(jì)評價的過程中,結(jié)合項目的實際情況進(jìn)行的指標(biāo)選取,并建立了適用于所研究項目的評價指標(biāo)體系：而且,本文創(chuàng)新地將國民經(jīng)濟(jì)評價引入其中,使評價更全面更具說服力,在評價方法上也實現(xiàn)了一定程度上的創(chuàng)新。
[Abstract]:Energy demand in the world is growing and it is expected to maintain an average annual growth rate of 1.2 per cent per year. Due to the huge reserves and availability of fossil fuel resources, it is foreseen that they will continue to play an important role in the world energy economy. At present, fossil energy provides 85 per cent of the world's commercial energy needs. In our country, almost 90 per cent of the electricity demand comes from coal generation, and the energy demand in this century will be more than doubled to 1.3 times the US demand. At present, cars consume more than half of the oil demand, which is expected to grow significantly. With the growth and prosperity of the economies of developing countries, the demand for fossil fuels in developed countries is expected to be substantially flat in developing countries, while private vehicles in developing countries will increase dramatically. At the same time, while the utilization of nuclear and renewable energy is increasing year by year, global carbon dioxide emissions are expected to rise close to 30 per cent of the current level. Thus, in order to meet the increasing demand for energy and to reduce the carbon dioxide content in the atmosphere, alternative fuels are sought to replace hydrocarbon fuels such as diesel and gasoline, resulting in a large number of different fuels, but few of which can be developed in large scale. Natural gas is one of the widely used and renewable energy sources (through biogas or biomethane), resulting in less greenhouse gas emissions than other conventional and alternative fuels. Natural gas may be commercially available in a variety of ways, with compressed natural gas (CNG), liquefied natural gas (LNG), or even hydrogen. The use of natural gas vehicles (natural gas vehicles) is also conducive to energy security and energy diversity. As a result, natural gas has become the preferred fuel due to its inherent environmental friendliness, higher efficiency and lower cost. In that long-distance transportation of natural gas, the liquefied natural gas is particularly suitable for pipeline transportation. Like all natural gas, liquefied natural gas is cleaner than coal and oil and offers a chance to diversify energy supplies. Therefore, in the natural gas market, the use of liquefied natural gas has been recognized globally. On the basis of the previous research, combining with the actual situation of the industry and the enterprise, a set of economic evaluation index system of the LNG filling station is constructed, and the grey prediction method is adopted to forecast the future LNG demand. Combined with the prediction results, the future operation effect of the Xibe LNG (LNG) station is comprehensively evaluated. The main contents of this paper are as follows: this paper, based on the economic evaluation of the project of the West-energy LNG (LNG) station, is to build the economic evaluation index system of the West-energy LNG (LNG) station, to evaluate the investment risk of the West-energy LNG (LNG) station, and to put forward the corresponding measures of risk prevention and response. And has certain theoretical and practical significance. Based on the project location and the surrounding economic situation and the competitive environment, this paper forecasts the quantity of the car with natural gas as the fuel, according to the project location and the surrounding economic situation and the competitive environment. That is, the future market demand of the project is studied, and the conclusion is that the future demand of LNG is huge and continuous. On the basis of this, on the basis of the relevant theory of economic evaluation and the study of the literature, the paper selects the indicators for the financial evaluation and national economic evaluation of the LNG gas-filling station in the west, according to the principle of the selection of the economic evaluation index of the project and the characteristics of the project. Based on the system, the investment and economic benefit of the project are analyzed. The results show that the project has strong profitability and anti-risk ability in the aspects of financial evaluation. and the most important factor for the economic benefit of the project is the selling price of the natural gas, the second is the raw material price, and in the aspect of national economic evaluation, the project has a considerable economic benefit, and has a certain promoting effect on the development of the natural gas industry in Shouguang City, And can bring new employment opportunities to the local area, and promote the improvement and the improvement of people's living standards, and the national economic benefit is obvious. Finally, based on the economic evaluation result of the LNG gas station project, this paper puts forward some suggestions and prospects for the investment decision and operation of the project. The innovation of the full text is that, on the content, the focus on the site selection and layout of the filling station is different from most of the domestic research, and the focus is on the economic evaluation of the gas-filling station. In this paper, based on the previous prediction method, the grey prediction model is used in combination with the actual situation of the project, and the model is applied to the research of the future market of the project. In the process of economic evaluation of the project, the index selection is carried out in combination with the actual situation of the project, and the evaluation index system for the research project is set up. In addition, the national economic evaluation is introduced in this paper, so that the evaluation is more comprehensive and more convincing, Some degree of innovation is also achieved in the evaluation method.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：中國海洋大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2015
【分類號】：F272.5;F426.22
本文編號：2512085
[Abstract]:Energy demand in the world is growing and it is expected to maintain an average annual growth rate of 1.2 per cent per year. Due to the huge reserves and availability of fossil fuel resources, it is foreseen that they will continue to play an important role in the world energy economy. At present, fossil energy provides 85 per cent of the world's commercial energy needs. In our country, almost 90 per cent of the electricity demand comes from coal generation, and the energy demand in this century will be more than doubled to 1.3 times the US demand. At present, cars consume more than half of the oil demand, which is expected to grow significantly. With the growth and prosperity of the economies of developing countries, the demand for fossil fuels in developed countries is expected to be substantially flat in developing countries, while private vehicles in developing countries will increase dramatically. At the same time, while the utilization of nuclear and renewable energy is increasing year by year, global carbon dioxide emissions are expected to rise close to 30 per cent of the current level. Thus, in order to meet the increasing demand for energy and to reduce the carbon dioxide content in the atmosphere, alternative fuels are sought to replace hydrocarbon fuels such as diesel and gasoline, resulting in a large number of different fuels, but few of which can be developed in large scale. Natural gas is one of the widely used and renewable energy sources (through biogas or biomethane), resulting in less greenhouse gas emissions than other conventional and alternative fuels. Natural gas may be commercially available in a variety of ways, with compressed natural gas (CNG), liquefied natural gas (LNG), or even hydrogen. The use of natural gas vehicles (natural gas vehicles) is also conducive to energy security and energy diversity. As a result, natural gas has become the preferred fuel due to its inherent environmental friendliness, higher efficiency and lower cost. In that long-distance transportation of natural gas, the liquefied natural gas is particularly suitable for pipeline transportation. Like all natural gas, liquefied natural gas is cleaner than coal and oil and offers a chance to diversify energy supplies. Therefore, in the natural gas market, the use of liquefied natural gas has been recognized globally. On the basis of the previous research, combining with the actual situation of the industry and the enterprise, a set of economic evaluation index system of the LNG filling station is constructed, and the grey prediction method is adopted to forecast the future LNG demand. Combined with the prediction results, the future operation effect of the Xibe LNG (LNG) station is comprehensively evaluated. The main contents of this paper are as follows: this paper, based on the economic evaluation of the project of the West-energy LNG (LNG) station, is to build the economic evaluation index system of the West-energy LNG (LNG) station, to evaluate the investment risk of the West-energy LNG (LNG) station, and to put forward the corresponding measures of risk prevention and response. And has certain theoretical and practical significance. Based on the project location and the surrounding economic situation and the competitive environment, this paper forecasts the quantity of the car with natural gas as the fuel, according to the project location and the surrounding economic situation and the competitive environment. That is, the future market demand of the project is studied, and the conclusion is that the future demand of LNG is huge and continuous. On the basis of this, on the basis of the relevant theory of economic evaluation and the study of the literature, the paper selects the indicators for the financial evaluation and national economic evaluation of the LNG gas-filling station in the west, according to the principle of the selection of the economic evaluation index of the project and the characteristics of the project. Based on the system, the investment and economic benefit of the project are analyzed. The results show that the project has strong profitability and anti-risk ability in the aspects of financial evaluation. and the most important factor for the economic benefit of the project is the selling price of the natural gas, the second is the raw material price, and in the aspect of national economic evaluation, the project has a considerable economic benefit, and has a certain promoting effect on the development of the natural gas industry in Shouguang City, And can bring new employment opportunities to the local area, and promote the improvement and the improvement of people's living standards, and the national economic benefit is obvious. Finally, based on the economic evaluation result of the LNG gas station project, this paper puts forward some suggestions and prospects for the investment decision and operation of the project. The innovation of the full text is that, on the content, the focus on the site selection and layout of the filling station is different from most of the domestic research, and the focus is on the economic evaluation of the gas-filling station. In this paper, based on the previous prediction method, the grey prediction model is used in combination with the actual situation of the project, and the model is applied to the research of the future market of the project. In the process of economic evaluation of the project, the index selection is carried out in combination with the actual situation of the project, and the evaluation index system for the research project is set up. In addition, the national economic evaluation is introduced in this paper, so that the evaluation is more comprehensive and more convincing, Some degree of innovation is also achieved in the evaluation method.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：中國海洋大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2015
【分類號】：F272.5;F426.22
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相關(guān)期刊論文 前3條
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，本文編號：2512085
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