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基于“區(qū)域—港口—貨流”的世界集裝箱海運(yùn)網(wǎng)絡(luò)復(fù)雜性相關(guān)研究

發(fā)布時(shí)間:2018-07-12 13:53

  本文選題:班輪運(yùn)輸 + 海運(yùn)網(wǎng)絡(luò) ; 參考:《大連海事大學(xué)》2016年博士論文


【摘要】:集裝箱班輪運(yùn)輸承擔(dān)約70%的世界海運(yùn)貿(mào)易價(jià)值量,是世界經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展的重要支撐。由集裝箱班輪運(yùn)輸活動形成的世界集裝箱海運(yùn)網(wǎng)絡(luò)是國際貨物貿(mào)易格局的現(xiàn)實(shí)反映,然而,目前世界集裝箱海運(yùn)網(wǎng)絡(luò)相關(guān)實(shí)證研究還較為缺乏。世界集裝箱海運(yùn)網(wǎng)絡(luò)具有真實(shí)的地理空間屬性,港口是網(wǎng)絡(luò)中的最小節(jié)點(diǎn)單元,而一定地理范圍內(nèi)的區(qū)域港口體系則可視為更大的節(jié)點(diǎn)單元,世界港口之間、區(qū)域港口體系之間的集裝箱海運(yùn)貨流聯(lián)系分別形成了微觀、宏觀層面的世界集裝箱海上運(yùn)輸格局。因此,將世界集裝箱海運(yùn)網(wǎng)絡(luò)看作一個(gè)系統(tǒng),港口、海運(yùn)區(qū)域、集裝箱海運(yùn)貨流便是該系統(tǒng)中最根本、且相互緊密關(guān)聯(lián)的三方面構(gòu)成要素。本文以世界集裝箱班輪運(yùn)輸企業(yè)的航線服務(wù)網(wǎng)絡(luò)為切入點(diǎn),結(jié)合復(fù)雜網(wǎng)絡(luò)視角和地理空間視角,從網(wǎng)絡(luò)拓?fù)浣Y(jié)構(gòu)和貨流空間分布格局兩個(gè)維度揭示世界集裝箱海運(yùn)網(wǎng)絡(luò)的復(fù)雜特性,以期為中國沿海集裝箱港口發(fā)展、中國國際集裝箱班輪企業(yè)的全球運(yùn)力布局提供參考,從而服務(wù)于中國海運(yùn)業(yè)的長遠(yuǎn)發(fā)展。圍繞上述研究目的,主要做了以下工作:(1)在合理劃分世界海運(yùn)區(qū)域的基礎(chǔ)上,通過分析2001-2012年各海運(yùn)區(qū)域的集裝箱貨流量發(fā)展、在世界集裝箱海運(yùn)網(wǎng)絡(luò)拓?fù)浣Y(jié)構(gòu)中的中心程度、以及在網(wǎng)絡(luò)貨流空間分布格局中的主導(dǎo)性,對世界集裝箱海運(yùn)網(wǎng)絡(luò)的區(qū)域發(fā)展不平衡性及其演化進(jìn)行了研究。結(jié)果顯示:當(dāng)前研究普遍采用的集裝箱貨流量指標(biāo)不能夠準(zhǔn)確反映一個(gè)海運(yùn)區(qū)域集裝箱班輪運(yùn)輸?shù)恼鎸?shí)發(fā)展水平。研究期間內(nèi),東亞區(qū)域的集裝箱貨流量雖然顯著領(lǐng)先于其他海運(yùn)區(qū)域,但其在世界集裝箱海運(yùn)網(wǎng)絡(luò)中的地位上升幅度滯后于貨流量的發(fā)展速度;北美西岸、北美東岸和澳大拉西亞區(qū)域在世界集裝箱海運(yùn)網(wǎng)絡(luò)中的地位下降幅度最大;度處于世界集裝箱海運(yùn)網(wǎng)絡(luò)邊緣位置的南美北岸、西非、南部非洲、南美東岸和西亞區(qū)域已成為新興海運(yùn)區(qū)域。(2)通過分析全球各港口在世界集裝箱海運(yùn)網(wǎng)絡(luò)拓?fù)浣Y(jié)構(gòu)中的中心程度,對世界集裝箱海運(yùn)網(wǎng)絡(luò)的拓?fù)浣Y(jié)構(gòu)中心性進(jìn)行了研究。基于度、介數(shù)和接近中心度指標(biāo),以及各指標(biāo)與港口集裝箱吞吐量的相關(guān)性,提出系統(tǒng)性衡量港口在世界集裝箱海運(yùn)網(wǎng)絡(luò)拓?fù)浣Y(jié)構(gòu)中地位的綜合中心度指數(shù)。根據(jù)綜合中心度指數(shù),全球港口在世界集裝箱海運(yùn)網(wǎng)絡(luò)拓?fù)浣Y(jié)構(gòu)中的中心程度可劃分為高于0.2、0.15-0.2和低于0.15三個(gè)層級,各層級港口占世界港口總數(shù)的比例分別為3.18%、14.00%和82.82%。其中,鹿特丹港、安特衛(wèi)普港和上海港具有最高的綜合中心度,位于世界集裝箱海運(yùn)網(wǎng)絡(luò)拓?fù)浣Y(jié)構(gòu)的中心位置。同時(shí),通過分析港口的綜合中心度和集裝箱吞吐量的位序差異,認(rèn)為綜合中心度指數(shù)和集裝箱吞吐量指標(biāo)在港口的集裝箱海運(yùn)網(wǎng)絡(luò)重要性評價(jià)上具有互補(bǔ)性。(3)通過分析港口的空間貨流組織模式、區(qū)域港口體系的貨流分布集中度、以及港口的首位貨流聯(lián)系,探析了世界集裝箱海運(yùn)網(wǎng)絡(luò)貨流空間分布格局的復(fù)雜特性。港口的空間貨流組織模式是指港口集裝箱海運(yùn)貨流在自身所處海運(yùn)區(qū)域內(nèi)部和外部港口之間的分配,其模式可劃分為外向型、均衡型和內(nèi)向型。分析結(jié)果顯示:對于一定貨流規(guī)模以上的港口而言,外向型港口比內(nèi)向型、均衡型港口在世界集裝箱海運(yùn)網(wǎng)絡(luò)中更具影響力;诤辗疫_(dá)爾-赫希曼指數(shù),分析了世界各海運(yùn)區(qū)域的總貨流、區(qū)域內(nèi)部貨流、區(qū)域外部貨流在區(qū)域內(nèi)部港口分布的集中程度,發(fā)現(xiàn)導(dǎo)致海運(yùn)區(qū)域總貨流分布集聚的原因主要在于區(qū)域外部貨流被區(qū)域內(nèi)少數(shù)港口壟斷。根據(jù)首位貨流聯(lián)系對世界港口進(jìn)行社團(tuán)劃分,進(jìn)而得到世界集裝箱海運(yùn)網(wǎng)絡(luò)的五個(gè)港口層級。其中,上海港、鹿特丹港、紐約港、瓦倫西亞港、桑托斯港、陶朗加港等位于社團(tuán)結(jié)構(gòu)中心的30個(gè)港口構(gòu)成了網(wǎng)絡(luò)的第一層級。(4)基于顯著流分析法,提出分析兩個(gè)區(qū)域(或國家)之間集裝箱海運(yùn)貨流空間分布格局脆弱性的一種定量分析方法。進(jìn)而,基于中國與世界各海運(yùn)區(qū)域之間集裝箱顯著貨流的分布,分析了中國與各海運(yùn)區(qū)域之間集裝箱海運(yùn)聯(lián)系對各海運(yùn)區(qū)域港口和相應(yīng)中國港口的依賴程度,以及由此導(dǎo)致的中國國際集裝箱海運(yùn)貨流空間分布格局的脆弱程度。同時(shí),根據(jù)中國國際集裝箱海運(yùn)貨流對相關(guān)中國港口的綜合依賴度,將中國國際集裝箱港口劃分為超核心港、次核心港和非核心港三個(gè)層級。其中,上海港、深圳港、寧波-舟山港和香港港為超核心港,廣州港、廈門港、青島港、天津港和大連港為次核心港,其余為非核心港。
[Abstract]:Container liner transportation takes about 70% of the world shipping trade value, which is an important support for the development of world economy. The world container shipping network formed by container liner transportation is the realistic reflection of the international trade pattern of goods. However, the world container shipping network correlation empirical research is still short of the world container. The marine network has the real geographical spatial attribute, the port is the smallest node unit in the network, and the regional port system in a certain geographical range can be regarded as the larger node unit. The container shipping links between the ports in the world and the regional port system form the micro, the macro level of the world container shipping. Therefore, the world container shipping network is regarded as a system, port, sea area, container shipping flow is the most fundamental and closely related three components of the system. This paper takes the service network of the world container liner shipping enterprise as the breakthrough point, combining the complex network perspective and geographical space. Angle, from the two dimensions of network topology and spatial distribution pattern, the complex characteristics of the world container shipping network are revealed. It is expected to provide reference for the development of China's coastal container ports and the global capacity layout of Chinese international container liner enterprises, thus serving the long-term development of China's marine transport industry. The following work should be done: (1) on the basis of the rational division of the world shipping area, by analyzing the development of the container cargo flow in the 2001-2012 year marine regions, the central degree in the world container shipping network topology and the dominance in the spatial distribution pattern of the network cargo flow, the region of the world container shipping network is distributed. In the study period, the volume of container cargo in East Asia is significantly higher than that in other maritime areas, but it is in the world. The position in the packing sea network is lagging behind the speed of the flow of cargo; the West Bank of North America, the east coast of North America and the Australasia region have the largest decline in the world container shipping network, and the North Bank of South America, West Africa, South Africa, South America and Western Asia at the edge of the world container shipping network. It has become a new marine area. (2) by analyzing the central degree of the global ports in the world container shipping network topology, the center of the topological structure of the world container shipping network is studied. Based on the degree, the index and the close center degree index, and the correlation between the indexes and the port container throughput, the system is put forward. The comprehensive centrality index of the port's status in the world container shipping network topology. According to the comprehensive centrality index, the central degree of global ports in the world container shipping network topology can be divided into higher than 0.2,0.15-0.2 and three levels below 0.15, and the proportion of the ports at each level to the total number of ports in the world, respectively. For 3.18%, 14% and 82.82%., Rotterdam port, Antwerp port and Shanghai port have the highest comprehensive centrality. It is located at the center of the world container shipping network topology. At the same time, the comprehensive centrality index and container throughput index are considered by analyzing the comprehensive center degree of the port and the sequence difference of container throughput. The importance evaluation of container shipping network in port has complementarity. (3) by analyzing the spatial distribution pattern of the port, the concentration of cargo flow in the regional port system and the first cargo flow connection in the port, the complex characteristics of the spatial distribution pattern of the container shipping space in the world container shipping network are analyzed. The organization model of the port space cargo flow is analyzed. The model can be divided into export-oriented, balanced and introverted. The analysis results show that the outgoing port is more than the introverted port and the equilibrium port is more in the world container shipping network for a certain port over the size of a certain volume of cargo. Based on the Hefen Dahl Hirshman index, the total cargo flow in the world shipping area, the internal cargo flow in the region and the concentration degree of the distribution of the regional external cargo in the region are analyzed. It is found that the main cause of the distribution of the total cargo flow in the sea area is that the foreign goods flow in the region is monopolized by a few ports in the region. The flow of goods is linked to the division of the world's ports and then the five port levels of the world container shipping network. Among them, 30 ports, such as Shanghai port, Rotterdam port, New York port, Valencia port, Santos port, and pottery port, constitute the first level of the network. (4) based on the salient flow analysis, the points are put forward. An analysis is made of the quantitative analysis of the spatial distribution pattern of container shipping flow between two regions (or countries). Based on the distribution of the significant container cargo flow between China and the sea regions in the world, this paper analyzes the dependence of the container shipping line between China and the marine regions on the ports and the corresponding Chinese ports. Lai Chengdu, and the resulting fragility of the spatial distribution pattern of China International Container Shipping flow. At the same time, according to the comprehensive dependence of the international container shipping flow on the relevant Chinese ports, the Chinese international container ports are divided into three levels, the core port and the non core port, including the Shanghai port and the Shenzhen. Hong Kong, Ningbo Zhoushan port and Hongkong port are super core ports, Guangzhou port, Xiamen port, Qingdao port, Tianjin port and Dalian Port are the sub core ports, and the rest are non core ports.
【學(xué)位授予單位】:大連海事大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級別】:博士
【學(xué)位授予年份】:2016
【分類號】:F551

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本文編號:2117365


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