本文選題：鐵礦石消耗　切入點：經(jīng)濟增長　出處：《中國地質大學》2017年博士論文　論文類型：學位論文

【摘要】：鋼鐵工業(yè)是國民經(jīng)濟的支柱產業(yè),隨著我國資源環(huán)境問題的日益凸顯和鐵礦石消耗對外依存度的逐年攀升,人們對鐵礦石消耗未來走勢給予了高度關注,那么,是哪些因素影響著鐵礦石消耗?這些因素又是如何影響著鐵礦石消耗?論文緊緊圍繞這一命題,從經(jīng)濟增長理論出發(fā),以鐵礦石儲量現(xiàn)狀和開發(fā)利用特征為基礎,沿著鐵的物質流路徑,分析提煉出經(jīng)濟增長、環(huán)境政策、市場因素和技術進步四方面因素對鐵礦石消耗產生必然影響,并分別就四方面因素對鐵礦石消耗的影響機理進行了深入研究。最后,綜合四方面影響因素,構建了鐵礦石消耗綜合影響模型并進行實證分析。論文將資源經(jīng)濟學、循環(huán)經(jīng)濟學、生態(tài)經(jīng)濟學和經(jīng)濟增長理論相結合,綜合運用文獻分析法、物質流分析法、比較研究、數(shù)理統(tǒng)計建模法、理論分析與歸納相結合等方法對鐵礦石消耗策略、鋼鐵循環(huán)利用和經(jīng)濟增長方式開展系統(tǒng)、全面的研究,圍繞鐵礦石消耗與經(jīng)濟增長、市場、環(huán)境和技術進步等因素相關關系中的系列理論和實踐問題進行深入探討,研究了如下主要內容,形成了論文主要研究結論。第一章,緒論。本章主要闡述論文研究的背景和意義,系統(tǒng)梳理國內外關于經(jīng)濟增長與礦產資源消耗關系的相關文獻,得出相關理論研究進展和發(fā)展方向,提出論文的研究思路,提煉擬創(chuàng)新點和需解決的關鍵問題。第二章,鐵礦石消耗影響因素分析。全面分析全球及中國鐵礦石儲量、品位以及分布特征,系統(tǒng)回顧鐵礦消費利用狀況,總結影響鐵礦石消耗的主要影響因素。第三章,經(jīng)濟增長對鐵礦石消耗的影響。首先通過面板數(shù)據(jù)模型、協(xié)整檢驗等計量經(jīng)濟方法和模型,分析美、英、德、法、日、韓等主要發(fā)達國家不同歷史時期經(jīng)濟增長對鐵礦礦石消耗的影響,提出了美國“倒U”型、英法“山峰”型、德日“反7”型和韓國持續(xù)增長型等鐵礦石消耗模式;再通過對中國經(jīng)濟增長對鐵礦石消耗影響的時序特征分析和空間分布分析,進而構建并驗證中國經(jīng)濟增長與鐵礦石消耗的時空耦合規(guī)律。形成主要結論:在工業(yè)化發(fā)展過程中,經(jīng)濟增長主要反映在社會物質財富的蓄積,經(jīng)濟增長對鐵礦石消耗具有較強的拉動作用,表現(xiàn)為人均鋼鐵蓄積量的快速增長。工業(yè)化基本完成以后,經(jīng)濟增長主要反映在人們生活質量的提高,經(jīng)濟增長與鐵礦石消耗顯現(xiàn)出逆向發(fā)展,表現(xiàn)為人均鋼鐵蓄積量的緩慢增長,并將最終實現(xiàn)均衡。近年來,中國經(jīng)濟增長處于快速工業(yè)化階段,經(jīng)濟增長與鐵礦石消耗具有時空耦合規(guī)律,整體上呈波動上升的態(tài)勢,同時,區(qū)域上具有一定的時空差異性。第四章,市場因素對鐵礦石消耗的影響。先通過分析國際鐵礦石貿易市場的歷史、現(xiàn)狀和演化趨勢,論證鐵礦石國際貿易的一般規(guī)律;再探討國際鐵礦石貿易對鐵礦石消耗的影響;然后論述了鐵礦石價格變化對鐵礦石消費替代以及可消耗的鐵礦石儲量的影響,后又分別論證了鋼鐵直接貿易和間接貿易對鐵礦石消耗的影響。得出主要結論為:鐵礦石貿易可以使鐵礦資源全球再平衡,并通過價格影響鐵礦石生產、消耗量。鋼鐵直接貿易和間接貿易改變鋼鐵國際間的平衡,并通過貿易轉嫁鐵礦石消耗所帶來的能源環(huán)境負擔。各國經(jīng)濟增長階段和發(fā)展方式的不同,產生了鋼鐵利用鏈上的國際分工不同,進而影響鐵礦石消耗,形成了鐵礦石消耗與鋼鐵利用的不協(xié)調性。第五章,環(huán)境政策對鐵礦石消耗的影響。論述了環(huán)境政策對鐵礦石消耗的影響,并從全生命周期理論和循環(huán)經(jīng)濟理論角度論證了鋼鐵循環(huán)利用對鐵礦石消耗產生的影響。形成主要結論為:工業(yè)化快速發(fā)展的經(jīng)濟增長,大量消耗鐵礦石等礦產資源,致使資源環(huán)境不斷惡化;工業(yè)化完成后,環(huán)境問題凸顯,環(huán)境管制迫使鐵礦石消耗量減少;鐵礦石消耗減少,促進了鋼鐵循環(huán)利用,進而減少環(huán)境負擔,鐵礦石消耗與環(huán)境相適應,并最終達到均衡。從物質流分析和全生命周期理論考察,論文認為鋼鐵是節(jié)能環(huán)保資源,長期來看,依靠循環(huán)經(jīng)濟發(fā)展方式,有效保障鐵礦石動態(tài)均衡消耗,有利于環(huán)境質量提高和經(jīng)濟均衡增長。第六章,技術進步對鐵礦石消耗的影響。分別從鐵礦石環(huán)境排放強度、能源消耗強度和鐵礦石資源利用率論證技術進步對鐵礦石消耗的影響,對技術進步產生鋼鐵材料與其他金屬或非金屬材料間的替代,以及技術進步對鐵礦石消耗經(jīng)濟效益產生的影響進行論述,并從有偏技術進步理論探討了技術進步對鐵礦石消耗數(shù)量和質量提高的影響。形成結論為:技術進步提高鐵礦資源勘探開發(fā)水平,增加可采鐵礦資源儲量,同時,技術進步使開采成本降低,提升鐵礦資源可經(jīng)濟開采量。技術進步使鋼鐵潛在可替代材料增多,進而促使鋼鐵材料性能的提升,提高鐵礦資源利用效率,減少相同功效的鐵礦石消耗量,實現(xiàn)鐵礦石消耗減量增效,可緩解鐵礦消耗壓力。有偏技術進步在中國鋼鐵工業(yè)表現(xiàn)突出,由于市場需求驅動,鐵礦石消耗數(shù)量增長快于質量提升,隨著人均鋼鐵蓄積量的飽和,技術進步將偏向于提高鋼鐵產品的質量上來,依靠技術進步實現(xiàn)減量提質發(fā)展。第七章,鐵礦石消耗綜合影響實證分析。通過對逐級細化影響指標,運用面板數(shù)據(jù)模型,將經(jīng)濟指標、環(huán)境指標、市場指標和技術進步指標逐步納入系統(tǒng)模型,構建綜合影響模型,并用運用5個典型發(fā)達國家45年數(shù)據(jù)進行實證分析。形成主要結論:(1)經(jīng)濟增長增加鐵礦石消耗,鐵礦石消耗增加環(huán)境負效應,環(huán)境壓力約束經(jīng)濟增長減少鐵礦石消耗強度。(2)經(jīng)濟增長增加科技人力、財力、物力投入,促進技術進步。技術進步促進經(jīng)濟轉型升級,降低資源消耗依賴;同時,技術進步增加鐵礦石可采儲量,提高鐵礦資源利用效率(包括廢鋼鐵回收利用率),提升鋼鐵制品品質,減少鐵礦石消耗強度。(3)國際貿易促進鐵礦資源全球有效配置,并通過價格形成材料的替代(包括鐵礦石與廢鋼鐵資源的替代);經(jīng)濟轉型和技術進步轉變鋼鐵資源的流動形式,鋼鐵間接貿易量迅速增加,轉變了鐵礦資源約束,并通過鋼鐵間接貿易提升了經(jīng)濟增長。(4)市場、環(huán)境、技術共同影響著經(jīng)濟增長方式的轉變,并通過經(jīng)濟增長方式的轉變改變著鐵礦石消耗強度,同時,經(jīng)濟、市場、環(huán)境、技術也從不同測度共同影響著鐵礦石消耗的形態(tài)、方式、效率和質量,構成了鐵礦石消耗影響機制。第八章,研究結論與展望。先逐步總結經(jīng)濟增長、市場因素、環(huán)境政策、技術進步對鐵礦消耗影響的研究結論,在綜合影響模型的基礎上提出鐵礦石消耗的影響機制,并從生態(tài)文明建設要求,以及我國鐵礦石消耗和鋼鐵產業(yè)政策面臨的問題,提出鋼鐵產業(yè)發(fā)展政策建議。中國鋼鐵工業(yè)應加快供給側結構性改革,加強環(huán)境管控和全生命周期環(huán)境成本核算,增強科技創(chuàng)新能力,積極參與鋼鐵制造國際分工,鐵礦石資源遠期不會約束中國經(jīng)濟增長,可以保障中國經(jīng)濟持續(xù)增長。論文的主要創(chuàng)新點體現(xiàn)在:(1)通過對比主要發(fā)達國家不同歷史時期鐵礦石消耗與經(jīng)濟增長的關系,基于我國不同發(fā)展方式,運用時序分析和空間分析相結合的方法,探究中國鐵礦石消耗與經(jīng)濟增長的時空耦合規(guī)律。(2)運用經(jīng)濟增長理論框架,全面分析經(jīng)濟、環(huán)境、市場、技術對鐵礦石消耗的影響,并根據(jù)分析結果,選取主要發(fā)達國家經(jīng)濟增長指標、環(huán)境約束指標、鋼鐵貿易指標、技術進步指標等共10項指標,運用計量經(jīng)濟方法,分步構建鐵礦石消耗綜合影響模型,提出未來中國鐵礦石消耗對經(jīng)濟增長的約束關系。
[Abstract]:The iron and steel industry is the pillar industry of the national economy, with the resources and environmental problems in China has become increasingly prominent and the consumption of iron ore external dependence on rising year by year, iron ore consumption trend has given great attention, that is, what are the factors that affect the consumption of iron ore? These factors how to affect the consumption of iron ore? This paper focuses on this topic, starting from the theory of economic growth, with the characteristics of the status quo and development and utilization of iron ore reserves as the foundation, along the iron material flow path analysis, extract the economic growth, environmental policy, market factors and technical progress of the four factors have influences on consumption of iron ore, the influence mechanism based on four aspects factors on the consumption of iron ore were studied. Finally, the comprehensive four factors, constructs the comprehensive effect of iron ore consumption model and empirical analysis. This paper will resources Economics, circulation economics, ecological economics and economic growth theory, the integrated use of literature analysis, comparative study on the material flow analysis method, mathematical statistics method, modeling, theoretical analysis and induction strategy combining the method of iron ore consumption, steel recycling and economic growth mode to carry out the system, a comprehensive study on iron ore the consumption and economic growth, the market, a series of theoretical and practical issues related the relationship between environment and technological progress and other factors in the in-depth study, the main contents of research are as follows, the paper mainly studies the formation of the first chapter, introduction. This chapter mainly elaborates the background and significance of the research, combing the domestic and foreign about economic growth and the relationship between the consumption of mineral resources related literature, the progress and development trend of research on related theories, put forward the idea of the paper, the key to innovation and refinement to solve The problem. In the second chapter, analysis of factors affecting the consumption of iron ore and China. Comprehensive analysis of global iron ore reserves, grade and distribution characteristics, a systematic review of iron ore consumption utilization situation, summarize the main factors that influence the consumption of iron ore. In the third chapter, affects the economic growth of consumption of iron ore. Firstly, through the panel data model, cointegration test econometric methods and models, analysis of beauty, Britain, Germany, Japan, Korea and other developed countries, the main effect of different historical periods of economic growth of iron ore consumption, put forward the "inverted U" type, the "mountain peak", "7" type of Germany and Japan and South Korea continued growth iron ore consumption patterns; through the analysis of temporal characteristics analysis and spatial China on economic growth impact on the consumption of iron ore distribution, then the establishment and validation of space-time coupling rules of economic growth and China iron ore consumption. The main form Conclusion: in the process of industrialization, economic growth is mainly reflected in the accumulation of material wealth of society, economic growth has a strong pulling effect on iron ore consumption, showing the rapid growth of per capita volume of steel. After the completion of basic industrialization, economic growth is mainly reflected in the improvement of life quality, economic growth and the consumption of iron ore show the reverse development, showed slow growth of per capita volume of steel, and will eventually achieve equilibrium. In recent years, Chinese economic growth in the stage of rapid industrialization, economic growth and the consumption of iron ore with spatial coupling rules, the overall rising trend, at the same time, with the differences of time and space domain. In the fourth chapter which factors affect the market for iron ore consumption. First, through the analysis of the international iron ore trade market history, current situation and development trend of iron ore, a demonstration of international trade The general rules of consumption; influence of international iron ore trade of iron ore; and then discusses the influence of the iron ore reserves of iron ore price changes of iron ore consumption and consumption substitution, and then demonstrates the consumption of iron and steel respectively direct trade and indirect trade of iron ore were studied. The main conclusion: iron ore trade can make iron ore resources of global rebalancing, and through the influence the price of iron ore production, consumption of iron and steel. Direct and indirect trade trade changed the balance between the international iron and steel trade, and through the transfer of iron ore consumption of energy and environmental burden brought by economic growth and development stage. The different way of producing steel using chain the international division of labor is different, thereby affecting the consumption of iron ore, iron ore consumption formed coordination and steel use. In the fifth chapter, the influence of environmental policy on iron ore consumption. The ring Effect of environmental policy on iron ore consumption, and demonstrates the steel recycling consumption on the impact of iron ore from the life cycle theory and the theory of circular economy perspective. The main conclusions are as follows: the formation of the rapid development of industrialization and economic growth, large consumption of mineral resources such as iron ore, resulting in the deterioration of resources and environment; the completion of industrialization, environment to highlight the problem of environmental regulation, forcing the iron ore consumption decreased; reduce the consumption of iron ore, iron and steel to promote recycling, thereby reducing the burden on the environment, the consumption of iron ore and adapt to the environment, and achieve the balanced analysis. And the whole life cycle theory from the perspective of material flow, the paper believes that the steel is energy-saving and environmental resources, rely on the long term, the development of circular economy, effectively guarantee the dynamic equilibrium of iron ore consumption, is conducive to the improvement of environmental quality and economic growth. In the sixth chapter, the technical progress of iron ore The influence of consumption. From the iron ore environmental emission intensity, and the impact of energy consumption intensity of iron ore resource utilization demonstration technology progress consumption of iron ore, steel and other materials to produce alternative metal or non-metallic materials for technological progress, technological progress and economic benefits generated by the effect of consumption of iron ore are discussed, and from the theory of partial technology progress of technological progress and improving the quality of the consumption effect of the quantity of iron ore formation. The conclusion is: improve the level of technological progress of iron ore resources exploration and development, increase the recoverable reserves of iron ore resources, at the same time, technological progress to reduce mining costs, enhance the economic exploitation of iron ore resources. Technological advances make steel potential alternative materials increased, prompting steel material performance, improve the efficiency of the use of iron ore resources, reduce the consumption of the same effect of iron ore, iron ore to achieve Consumption reduction efficiency, can alleviate the pressure of iron ore consumption. Partial technology progress in iron and steel industry China outstanding performance, because the market demand driven, iron ore consumption grew faster than the number of quality improvement, with the per capita volume of steel saturated, technological progress will tend to improve the quality of steel products, rely on technological progress to achieve reduction and quality and development. The seventh chapter, the empirical analysis of comprehensive effect of iron ore consumption. Through the analysis of the influence of stepwise refinement, using panel data model, the economic indicators, environmental indicators, market indicators and technical progress index gradually incorporated into the system model, construct the comprehensive effect model, and empirical analysis with the use of 5 typical developed countries 45 years of data. The main conclusions: (1) economic growth increases the consumption of iron ore, iron ore consumption increased negative environmental effects, environmental pressure constraints on economic growth to reduce iron ore consumption intensity (2). Economic growth, increase scientific and technological manpower, financial resources, material resources, promote technological progress. Technological progress and promote economic restructuring and upgrading, reduce the consumption of resources dependence; at the same time, increase the technological progress of iron ore Shi Ke reserves, improve the utilization efficiency of iron ore resources (including iron and steel scrap recycling rate), improve the steel product quality, reduce the consumption of iron ore (strength. 3) the promotion of international trade and global iron ore resources effectively configuration, through the formation of price alternative (alternative materials including iron ore and scrap iron and steel resource); flow pattern of economic restructuring and technological progress changes the resources of iron, iron and steel indirect trade is increasing rapidly, the change of iron ore resource constraints, and through indirect trade promoted the economic growth of iron and steel. (4) market environment, technology influenced the transformation of economic growth mode, and change the mode of economic growth through changing the iron ore consumption, at the same time, economy, The market environment, technology from different measures affect the iron ore consumption form, method, efficiency and quality, constitute the influence mechanism of iron ore consumption. In the eighth chapter, conclusion and Prospect of the research. First gradually sum up the economic growth, market factors, environmental policy, research conclusion effect of technological progress on iron ore consumption, the influence of the mechanism of iron ore consumption based on model of comprehensive effect, and from the requirements of ecological civilization construction, and the problems of China's consumption of iron ore and steel industry policy, the iron and steel industry development policy recommendations. China steel industry should speed up the supply side structural reform, strengthen environmental control and life cycle environmental cost accounting, strengthen the science and technology innovation ability, actively participate in the international division of steel manufacturing, iron ore resources will not be long-term constraints China economic growth, China can guarantee the sustained economic growth. The main Innovation is reflected in: (1) through the comparison of the main developed countries in different historical periods of iron ore consumption and economic growth in our country, different development mode based on the analysis, using the method of time series analysis and space integration, explore Chinese iron ore consumption and economic growth in the space-time coupling law. (2) using the theory of economic growth the framework, a comprehensive analysis of economy, environment, market, affect the consumption of iron ore technology, and according to the analysis results, select the main indicators of economic growth in developed countries, environmental constraints, steel trade indicators, 10 indicators of technological progress index, using the econometric method, step by step construction of iron ore consumption comprehensive influence model, put forward to constraints of economic growth in the future China iron ore consumption.

【學位授予單位】：中國地質大學
【學位級別】：博士
【學位授予年份】：2017
【分類號】：F426.1

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