發(fā)布時間：2018-03-02 12:24

  本文選題：貨幣　切入點：貨幣流通速度　出處：《蘭州大學(xué)》2015年博士論文　論文類型：學(xué)位論文

【摘要】：近年來貨幣流通速度下降成為我國宏觀經(jīng)濟運行中的一個突出問題,貨幣流通速度函數(shù)的不穩(wěn)定,給貨幣調(diào)控帶來挑戰(zhàn)。這一現(xiàn)象逐漸引起了決策層和研究界的關(guān)注。中國經(jīng)濟的一個突出特征是存在著巨大的區(qū)域差異性,理論上不同地區(qū)經(jīng)濟和金融的差異會對其貨幣供需均衡以及貨幣的產(chǎn)出效率形成影響,最終使得各地區(qū)貨幣流通速度呈現(xiàn)出差異性。這是一個很有意義的研究課題。然而現(xiàn)有文獻(xiàn)對貨幣流通速度問題的研究,往往以全國作為一個整體對象,而忽略了對一國內(nèi)不同區(qū)域的研究。本文基于大國區(qū)域經(jīng)濟與金融發(fā)展的異質(zhì)性背景,對貨幣流通速度的時間和空間變動特征進行研究,探討改革開放后,貨幣流通速度在不同區(qū)域的變動規(guī)律。在對長期變化趨勢進行統(tǒng)計判斷的基礎(chǔ)上,運用計量經(jīng)濟方法,從區(qū)域貨幣需求、貨幣供給以及貨幣的產(chǎn)出效率三個方面,深入探究了相關(guān)因素對區(qū)域貨幣流通速度的影響。論文的主要貢獻(xiàn)在于突破已有研究的總量思維,基于嚴(yán)格的計量方法,從區(qū)域視角展開結(jié)構(gòu)分析,得到更為細(xì)致和具有政策意義的結(jié)論。論文的主要研究結(jié)論為:第一,我國面臨著整體貨幣流通速度下降和區(qū)域間差異明顯的雙重問題,表現(xiàn)為東部地區(qū)貨幣流通速度較小,西部次之,中部地區(qū)最大。貨幣流通速度還有一個下降周期,且西部地區(qū)有更長的收斂時間。第二,區(qū)域貨幣供應(yīng)非均衡測算表明,東部地區(qū)整體呈現(xiàn)貨幣過剩,中部地區(qū)整體不足,西部地區(qū)不足的程度較弱,且不同省份之間差異明顯。第三,發(fā)行渠道的內(nèi)生性使得基礎(chǔ)貨幣投放存在嚴(yán)重的區(qū)域差異,貨幣乘數(shù)和資金流動的雙重作用使得貨幣供應(yīng)區(qū)域不平衡的程度進一步放大,而沖銷操作并不能有效地解決這一問題。第四,不同地區(qū)貨幣需求函數(shù)差異明顯。經(jīng)濟較發(fā)達(dá)的東部地區(qū)相對于中西部地區(qū)保持了更高的貨幣需求增長,對非均衡分布的貨幣提供吸納機制。機會成本變量的變動并沒有對這種需求差異起到理論上的調(diào)節(jié)作用。第五,東部地區(qū)貨幣供應(yīng)增長對產(chǎn)出的影響力要弱于中西部地區(qū),貨幣的產(chǎn)出效率呈現(xiàn)出中、西、東遞減規(guī)律。第六,正是貨幣供應(yīng)量呈現(xiàn)東、西、中逐漸減少的趨勢,貨幣對產(chǎn)出的貢獻(xiàn)呈現(xiàn)出東、西、中逐漸增大的趨勢,收入型貨幣流通速度呈現(xiàn)出東部地區(qū)最低,西部地區(qū)次之,中部地區(qū)最高的現(xiàn)象。因此應(yīng)考慮貨幣流通速度區(qū)域差異性的客觀事實,實施差異化政策措施,以加快貨幣流通,提高貨幣區(qū)域配置效率。
[Abstract]:In recent years, the decline in the velocity of money circulation has become a prominent problem in the macroeconomic operation of our country, and the function of the velocity of money circulation is unstable. This phenomenon has gradually attracted the attention of policy makers and researchers. A prominent feature of China's economy is the existence of huge regional differences. Theoretically, the economic and financial differences in different regions will have an impact on the balance of money supply and demand and on the efficiency of monetary output. This is a meaningful research topic. However, the current literature on the velocity of money circulation often takes the whole country as a whole object. Based on the heterogeneity of regional economic and financial development of large countries, this paper studies the temporal and spatial characteristics of the velocity of currency circulation, and probes into the reform and opening up after the reform and opening up to the outside world. On the basis of statistical judgement of the long-term change trend, the paper applies econometric method to analyze the regional money demand, money supply and the efficiency of money output. The main contribution of this paper is to break through the thought of total amount of existing research, based on the strict measurement method, to carry out structural analysis from the regional perspective. The main conclusions of this paper are as follows: first, China is faced with the dual problems of the decrease of the overall currency circulation velocity and the obvious regional difference, which is manifested by the smaller circulation velocity of the money in the eastern region. The west is second, the central region is the largest. The velocity of money flows has a period of decline, and the western region has a longer time to converge. Second, the unbalanced calculation of the regional money supply shows that the eastern region as a whole has a currency surplus. The central region as a whole is short, the western region is weak, and the differences between different provinces are obvious. Thirdly, the endogeneity of the distribution channels makes the base money investment exist serious regional differences. The dual effect of money multiplier and capital flow further magnifies the regional imbalance of the money supply, and the operation of sterilisation cannot solve this problem effectively. 4th, There are significant differences in the function of monetary demand in different regions. The eastern region, where the economy is more developed, has maintained a higher growth in monetary demand than in the central and western regions. The change of opportunity cost variable does not play a theoretical role in regulating the difference in demand. In 5th, the influence of money supply growth on output in the eastern region is weaker than that in the central and western regions. The output efficiency of money shows the law of decreasing from middle, west and east to east. 6th, it is the money supply that is gradually decreasing in east, west and middle. The contribution of money to output is gradually increasing in the east, west and middle. The circulation velocity of the income money is the lowest in the eastern region, the second in the western region, and the highest in the central region. Therefore, we should consider the objective fact of the regional difference of the velocity of currency circulation, and implement the policy measures of differentiation in order to speed up the circulation of money. Improve the efficiency of currency allocation.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：蘭州大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級別】：博士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2015
【分類號】：F822.2
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本文編號：1556513