本文關鍵詞： 土地綜合承載力 系統(tǒng)動力學 評價指標體系 動態(tài)仿真模擬 西安市　出處：《西北工業(yè)大學》2016年博士論文　論文類型：學位論文

【摘要】：土地資源不僅是人類維持生產生活的基礎,也是人類社會發(fā)展的重要前提條件。隨著經濟發(fā)展和城市化進程的不斷加劇,人口增多、耕地減少、水資源短缺、環(huán)境污染等問題日益突出,給城市領域的土地系統(tǒng)帶來巨大壓力,甚至使其出現超負荷狀態(tài)。因此對土地綜合承載力的研究不僅對實現土地可持續(xù)利用具有重要意義,同時也為合理制定城市可持續(xù)發(fā)展規(guī)劃提供了重要的參考依據。本文結合可持續(xù)發(fā)展、系統(tǒng)科學、資源稀缺、土地綜合承載安全等相關理論,對土地綜合承載力的現狀和未來發(fā)展趨勢進行了評價和預測。首先,本文對國內外相關的土地綜合承載力研究進展做出了歸納總結,對現有研究方法及其中存在的問題進行了探討和分析。然后結合西安市土地利用現狀,依據承載客體的不同將土地綜合承載力系統(tǒng)分為四個子系統(tǒng),由水土資源、生態(tài)環(huán)境、經濟技術、社會發(fā)展子系統(tǒng)組成。根據西安市實際發(fā)展特點,選取合適的評價指標,構建西安市土地綜合承載力評價指標體系。運用均方差決策法對西安市1994~2013年的土地綜合承載力現狀和動態(tài)變化進行評價分析。其次,利用系統(tǒng)動力學方法建立西安市土地綜合承載力系統(tǒng)模型,并對其進行檢驗與修正。根據靈敏度分析結果設定五種仿真方案,分別為現狀延續(xù)、經濟優(yōu)先、資源集約、環(huán)境保護和協(xié)調發(fā)展。采用系統(tǒng)動力學軟件Vensim DSS 5.8對系統(tǒng)模型進行動態(tài)仿真預測和方案優(yōu)選,從而分析出西安市未來土地綜合承載力的最佳發(fā)展模式。最后,結合西安市的土地利用現狀和不同政策的影響因素,根據仿真結果為其土地綜合承載力的提升和土地可持續(xù)利用提出具有針對性的對策和建議。本文主要的研究內容和創(chuàng)新點如下:第一,本文選定城市領域的土地綜合承載力為研究對象,拓展了土地承載的主體和客體。由于城市系統(tǒng)的復雜性,使其土地綜合承載力的研究必須具有系統(tǒng)性,其承載主體從以往以耕地為主的單一土地利用類型拓展到更多類型,包括耕地、其他農用地及城市建設用地等。土地的承載客體也由以往以糧食生產、人口規(guī)模為主的單一要素擴展到城市社會經濟發(fā)展的方方面面,尤其同時考慮到水土資源利用和生態(tài)環(huán)境因素對城市土地承載力的影響,進行了全方位多維度的詳細分析,為國內相關研究提出新的研究方向。第二,本文以動態(tài)、發(fā)展的研究視角對城市土地綜合承載力進行了評價和預測研究。現有對土地承載力的研究大多以靜態(tài)分析為主,主要集中在對土地綜合承載力的現狀進行評價研究,往往缺乏對其未來發(fā)展趨勢的預測分析,忽略了系統(tǒng)的流動性和反饋性。本文以可持續(xù)發(fā)展為原則,關注土地綜合承載力系統(tǒng)的動態(tài)性,及其構成要素的流動性,同時考慮不同政策的發(fā)展因素,采用系統(tǒng)動力學方法,依托Vensim構建以城市區(qū)域為主體的系統(tǒng)動力學模型,并對其進行動態(tài)仿真預測和方案優(yōu)選,從而能夠更加準確的觀察研究區(qū)未來的土地綜合承載力發(fā)展趨勢,并為其制定出符合土地可持續(xù)利用和城市可持續(xù)發(fā)展要求的對策和措施,探索了系統(tǒng)動力學研究的新領域。第三,本文使用同一評價指標體系和計算方法,將評價與預測有機結合,建立了較為完整、科學的土地綜合承載力研究方法。首先,現有的研究大多單獨對土地綜合承載力進行現狀評價或未來預測,較少將其現狀與未來發(fā)展趨勢綜合起來進行分析。本文將仿真預測的結果代入現狀評價的計算方法中,評價與預測互為引導,清楚展現研究區(qū)不同歷史階段的土地綜合承載力狀態(tài),使研究結果更具統(tǒng)一性和完整性。其次,目前對土地綜合承載力進行的評價,大多采用AHP、德爾菲法等,此類方法主觀性較強,很難客觀的反映研究區(qū)的土地綜合承載力狀態(tài)。本文結合均方差決策法與系統(tǒng)動力學模型,建立了更完備的反饋關聯(lián),對于目標的評估與預測更科學有效。另外,由于各子系統(tǒng)對土地綜合承載力的影響并非簡單的求和或取均值,而是互相影響、共同耦合而成的,為了同時兼顧實用性與合理性,本文結合研究區(qū)的實際情況,改變以往對子系統(tǒng)取平均值求得綜合承載力的計算方法,在系統(tǒng)模型中根據各子系統(tǒng)的權重值最終確定土地綜合承載力,使評價結果更具準確性。第四,本文從各子系統(tǒng)存在的具體問題分別提出解決措施使對策研究更具針對性。以往的研究通常從總體出發(fā),提出的對策和建議較為籠統(tǒng)、寬泛,缺乏針對性,本文通過對西安市土地綜合承載力的現狀模式進行分析,分別從水土資源、生態(tài)環(huán)境、經濟技術、社會發(fā)展四個方面提出相應的可持續(xù)發(fā)展策略,并且結合不同的政策發(fā)展因素,根據仿真方案的預測結果從人口規(guī)模和經濟總量兩個方面分別對西安市未來不同發(fā)展模式下的土地承載潛力進行分析,從而提高了對策建議的可行性。本文設定了五種仿真方案對西安市未來的土地綜合承載力發(fā)展趨勢進行模擬預測,實證研究結果顯示,與其他方案相比,協(xié)調發(fā)展方案是最合理的發(fā)展方案。在該方案中,西安市的土地綜合承載力在2025年將達到0.9091,趨近于1,處于高級狀態(tài),但其水土資源承載力僅為0.7872,介于0.6~0.8之間,處于較高級狀態(tài)。表明西安市未來在水土資源利用方面應側重提高資源利用率,適度控制城市發(fā)展規(guī)模,特別是建設用地規(guī)模,并更加合理的進行城市發(fā)展規(guī)劃,提高其水土資源和社會發(fā)展承載力;同時還應大力改善城市生態(tài)環(huán)境,增加城市綠地、林地等生態(tài)用地面積,增強其生態(tài)環(huán)境承載力。通過各類子系統(tǒng)承載力水平的不斷優(yōu)化,完成對西安市土地綜合承載力的提升,這將是實現城市土地可持續(xù)利用及城市未來可持續(xù)發(fā)展的重要手段。
[Abstract]:Land resources is not only the foundation of production and life of the human to maintain the development of human society, is an important prerequisite. With the development of economy and city urbanization intensifies, the population increased, the reduction of arable land, water resource shortage, environmental pollution problems have become increasingly prominent, have brought tremendous pressure to the city land system domain, even the emergence of super load state. Therefore not only has important significance to realize the sustainable utilization of land comprehensive research on the bearing capacity of the land, but also provides an important reference for the reasonable development of the sustainable development of city planning. This paper combined with sustainable development, system science, scarce resources, comprehensive carrying safety and related theory of land, land comprehensive development status and future the bearing capacity of the trend is evaluated and predicted. Firstly, research progress of comprehensive carrying capacity of the land to the domestic and foreign related made summary The existing research methods, and the existing problems are discussed and analyzed. According to the present situation of land use in Xi'an City, on the basis of carrying objects of different land comprehensive carrying capacity of the system is divided into four subsystems, the soil and water resources, ecological environment, economy and technology, the social development subsystem. According to the actual characteristics of the development of Xi'an city and select the appropriate index, the construction of Xi'an city land comprehensive carrying capacity evaluation index system of 1994~2013 in Xi'an City, the land comprehensive carrying capacity status and dynamic changes were analyzed using mean variance decision method. Second, using the system dynamics method to build the city of Xi'an integrated land carrying capacity system model, and carry out inspection and correction of the sensitivity analysis results. According to the setting of five kinds of simulation methods, intensive respectively situation continues, the economic priorities, resources, environmental protection and coordinated development. Using system dynamics The software of Vensim DSS 5.8 model of system optimization and dynamic simulation and prediction scheme, so as to analyze the optimal development mode of Xi'an city in the future land comprehensive carrying capacity. Finally, the effects of land use status and different policy factors combined with the city of Xi'an, according to the simulation results for the integrated land carrying capacity and enhance the sustainable land use is proposed the corresponding countermeasures and suggestions. The main research contents and innovations are as follows: first, this paper selected the city area of land comprehensive carrying capacity as the research object, expand the main body of land capacity and passenger body. Because of the complexity of city system, to study the land comprehensive carrying capacity must be systematic, using a single type the land carrying the body from the past mainly cultivated land to expand to more types, including arable land, other agricultural land and city construction land. The land of the passenger Also from the grain production, single factor population mainly extended to the city economic and social development in all aspects, especially considering the effect of soil and water resources utilization and ecological environment factors on the bearing capacity of city land, carried out a detailed analysis of the multidimensional, put forward a new research direction for the domestic research. Second, based on the dynamic, comprehensive evaluation and prediction of bearing capacity of city land development perspective. The existing study on land carrying capacity is mostly based on the static analysis, mainly focused on the status of comprehensive land bearing capacity evaluation, often lack the analysis and prediction of its future development trend, ignore the flow of the system and feedback. Based on the principle of sustainable development, focus on comprehensive land dynamic carrying capacity system, and mobility of elements, at the same time to consider With the development of policy factors, with the method of system dynamics based on Vensim model based on system dynamics in city region as the main body, and optimize the dynamic simulation and prediction on the plan, so as to the development trend of integrated land carrying capacity in the future more accurate observation of the study area, and to formulate policies and measures for sustainable land use and sustainable development of the city, explores a new field of studying the dynamics of the system. Third, this paper use the same evaluation index system and calculation method, the evaluation and prediction of organic combination, established a relatively complete scientific research methods, comprehensive carrying capacity of land. First of all, most of the existing studies on individual land comprehensive status evaluation or forecast of bearing capacity, less its current situation and future development trend of comprehensive analysis. In this paper the simulation results into the current rating The price calculation method, evaluation and prediction of mutual guidance, clearly show a different historical stage of the study area, the land comprehensive carrying capacity, make the research results more unity and integrity. Secondly, the comprehensive evaluation of land carrying capacity, mostly by AHP, Delphi method, this method is subjective, comprehensive the bearing capacity is difficult to objectively reflect the status of land in the study area. Based on mean variance decision method and system dynamics model, and establishes a feedback association more complete, more effective scientific evaluation and prediction for the target. In addition, because each subsystem of comprehensive influence on the bearing capacity of land is not a simple summation or averaging. But influence each other, mutual coupling and, for both practical and reasonable, combining with the actual situation of the study area, change the previous sub system average calculated comprehensive carrying capacity In the method, the system model according to the weight of each subsystem value determines the comprehensive carrying capacity of land, make the evaluation results more accurate. Fourth, from the specific problems of each subsystem respectively put forward the measures to solve the countermeasure research more targeted. Previous studies usually start from the overall, put forward the Countermeasures and suggestions of in general, broad, lack of pertinence, based on the Xi'an city comprehensive land carrying capacity model status were analyzed respectively from the soil and water resources, ecological environment, economy and technology, put forward the sustainable development strategy of the four aspects of social development, and the combination of different factors of policy development, according to the forecast results from the two simulation program aspects of population size and economic output respectively for Xi'an's future development pattern under different land carrying capacity is analyzed, so as to improve the feasibility of countermeasures and suggestions. This paper set The five kinds of simulation methods for the future of Xi'an city land comprehensive capacity development trend forecast, the empirical results show that, compared with other schemes, the coordinated development scheme is the most reasonable development scheme. In this scheme, in 2025 will reach 0.9091 comprehensive carrying capacity of the land of Xi'an City, close to 1, at a high level state, but the bearing capacity of soil and water resources is only 0.7872, between 0.6~0.8, at a senior state. Show that the city of Xi'an in the future in the soil and water resources utilization should focus on improving the resource utilization rate, moderate control of city development scale, especially the scale of construction land, and more reasonable for city development planning, improve the bearing capacity of the the water and soil resources and social development; at the same time, but also greatly improve the city's ecological environment, increase the city green land area, forest ecological carrying capacity, enhance its ecological environment. Through all kinds of bearing system The continuous optimization of the force level will improve the comprehensive carrying capacity of land in Xi'an, which will be an important means to achieve sustainable urban land use and the sustainable development of the city.

【學位授予單位】：西北工業(yè)大學
【學位級別】：博士
【學位授予年份】：2016
【分類號】：F301.2
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本文編號：1466071