發(fā)布時(shí)間：2018-01-19 18:50

  本文關(guān)鍵詞： 低碳經(jīng)濟(jì) 居民健康 差分廣義矩估計(jì)(DGMM) 兩階段最小二乘法(2SLS) 協(xié)調(diào)發(fā)展 多目標(biāo)優(yōu)化　出處：《山東大學(xué)》2016年博士論文　論文類型：學(xué)位論文

【摘要】：粗放的經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)方式為我們帶來(lái)經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)的同時(shí)帶來(lái)了環(huán)境的惡化,霧霾、酸雨、氣候變暖等環(huán)境問(wèn)題的頻繁出現(xiàn)給人類的健康帶來(lái)了損害,也給人類的生產(chǎn)和發(fā)展帶來(lái)了威脅。因此,如何在保持經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)的同時(shí),有效的保護(hù)環(huán)境和保障居民健康是每個(gè)國(guó)家政府所亟待解決的重要問(wèn)題。2010年中國(guó)超越日本成為世界第二大經(jīng)濟(jì)體的同時(shí),也成為世界溫室氣體排放大國(guó)和環(huán)境污染大國(guó)�？梢�(jiàn)發(fā)展低碳經(jīng)濟(jì)、改善居民健康進(jìn)而實(shí)現(xiàn)經(jīng)濟(jì)、環(huán)境、健康等可持續(xù)發(fā)展對(duì)我們國(guó)家尤為迫切和重要。那么發(fā)展低碳經(jīng)濟(jì)將給居民健康帶來(lái)怎樣的影響,這個(gè)問(wèn)題的回答將有助于我們更加明確的認(rèn)識(shí)到發(fā)展低碳經(jīng)濟(jì)的重要性,也有助于我們找準(zhǔn)低碳經(jīng)濟(jì)該遵循怎樣的發(fā)展模式。本文的研究可為我國(guó)低碳經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展實(shí)踐提供導(dǎo)向性的理論指導(dǎo),也為政府部門(mén)制定相應(yīng)的經(jīng)濟(jì)、環(huán)境、健康的相關(guān)政策和措施提供參考依據(jù),具有較強(qiáng)的理論意義和現(xiàn)實(shí)意義。本文在前人研究的基礎(chǔ)上,綜合環(huán)境經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)、衛(wèi)生經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)、公共經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)和計(jì)量經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)等理論學(xué)科,采用規(guī)范經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)和實(shí)證經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)、宏觀經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)和微觀經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)、定性研究和定量研究相結(jié)合的研究方法,首先探討了發(fā)展低碳經(jīng)濟(jì)帶來(lái)的健康影響,進(jìn)一步研究?jī)烧叩膮f(xié)調(diào)現(xiàn)狀及優(yōu)化策略,在此基礎(chǔ)上提出低碳經(jīng)濟(jì)的發(fā)展模式。主要回答了以下幾個(gè)問(wèn)題：低碳經(jīng)濟(jì)和居民健康之間的關(guān)系是什么(What)?為什么低碳經(jīng)濟(jì)和居民健康存在這樣的關(guān)系(Why)?低碳經(jīng)濟(jì)對(duì)居民健康的影響程度有多大(How)?目前的低碳經(jīng)濟(jì)與健康的關(guān)系怎么樣(How)?是否協(xié)調(diào)?低碳經(jīng)濟(jì)該遵循什么樣的發(fā)展模式以更好地促進(jìn)健康(What)?為此,本文進(jìn)行了如下的分析：首先,在充分分析了低碳經(jīng)濟(jì)和健康的內(nèi)涵的基礎(chǔ)上,采用了廣義低碳經(jīng)濟(jì)和廣義健康的定義,采用LOWA算子法篩選指標(biāo),分別構(gòu)建低碳經(jīng)濟(jì)評(píng)價(jià)指標(biāo)體系和居民健康評(píng)價(jià)指標(biāo)體系；利用結(jié)合因子分析法和層次分析法的組合賦權(quán)法對(duì)各指標(biāo)進(jìn)行賦權(quán)；采取我國(guó)2000-2013年相應(yīng)的指標(biāo)數(shù)據(jù)得到低碳經(jīng)濟(jì)綜合指數(shù)和居民健康綜合指數(shù)作為我國(guó)低碳經(jīng)濟(jì)和居民健康現(xiàn)狀的代表。緊接著利用協(xié)整模型、誤差修正模型和Granger因果檢驗(yàn)分析了我國(guó)低碳經(jīng)濟(jì)和居民健康的關(guān)系。第二,低碳經(jīng)濟(jì)對(duì)健康影響的機(jī)制理論分析,分別從作用機(jī)制、路徑分析、以及理論模型三個(gè)方面進(jìn)行闡述： (1)從經(jīng)濟(jì)因子、環(huán)境因子和生活方式三個(gè)途徑解釋了低碳經(jīng)濟(jì)影響健康的作用機(jī)制; (2)分別從溫室氣體及其他氣體污染物來(lái)源的主要渠道,即電力行業(yè)、家庭能源、交通運(yùn)輸、食品和農(nóng)業(yè)生產(chǎn)等四個(gè)領(lǐng)域?qū)Φ吞冀?jīng)濟(jì)影響健康做路徑分析；(3)通過(guò)對(duì)現(xiàn)有健康生產(chǎn)函數(shù)的梳理,在Grossman(1972)創(chuàng)建的健康生產(chǎn)函數(shù)的基礎(chǔ)上,構(gòu)建了柯布-道格拉斯形式的微觀和宏觀健康生產(chǎn)函數(shù)作為實(shí)證分析的模型基礎(chǔ)。第三,低碳經(jīng)濟(jì)的居民健康效應(yīng)分析。將低碳經(jīng)濟(jì)分解為經(jīng)濟(jì)因子、環(huán)境因子、生活方式三個(gè)方面考察其對(duì)居民健康的影響效應(yīng)。首先,從低碳經(jīng)濟(jì)的經(jīng)濟(jì)因子和環(huán)境因子兩個(gè)角度,分別選取國(guó)家層面的面板數(shù)據(jù)、城市層面的時(shí)間序列數(shù)據(jù)分析了低碳經(jīng)濟(jì)對(duì)居民健康的宏觀效應(yīng)和微觀效應(yīng),綜合考慮環(huán)境污染、經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)對(duì)居民健康的影響。其次,生活方式對(duì)健康的影響由于數(shù)據(jù)難于獲取,無(wú)法體現(xiàn)在健康效應(yīng)模型中,故使用自制的《低碳生活與健康關(guān)系》調(diào)查問(wèn)卷進(jìn)行抽樣調(diào)查。第四,研究低碳經(jīng)濟(jì)與健康的關(guān)系是否協(xié)調(diào)或“經(jīng)濟(jì)-環(huán)境-健康”三系統(tǒng)的協(xié)調(diào)狀態(tài)的問(wèn)題。首先利用模糊隸屬函數(shù)協(xié)調(diào)度法測(cè)算“經(jīng)濟(jì)-環(huán)境-健康”三系統(tǒng)的協(xié)調(diào)狀態(tài);其次進(jìn)行“經(jīng)濟(jì)-環(huán)境-健康”系統(tǒng)協(xié)調(diào)發(fā)展的多目標(biāo)優(yōu)化,對(duì)計(jì)算值和目標(biāo)值進(jìn)行比較分析。本文研究發(fā)現(xiàn)：2000年以來(lái)我國(guó)低碳經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展水平和健康水平均呈現(xiàn)上升趨勢(shì),兩者間存在協(xié)整關(guān)系即長(zhǎng)期穩(wěn)定關(guān)系,同時(shí)存在短期波動(dòng)；低碳經(jīng)濟(jì)對(duì)健康存在促進(jìn)作用,但要經(jīng)過(guò)一定的滯后期才能顯現(xiàn)出來(lái)。低碳經(jīng)濟(jì)通過(guò)經(jīng)濟(jì)因子、環(huán)境因子和生活方式等方面影響健康。不管選取怎樣的代表性指標(biāo),也不管選取何種層面的數(shù)據(jù),低碳經(jīng)濟(jì)的宏微觀居民健康效應(yīng)研究均發(fā)現(xiàn)經(jīng)濟(jì)的增長(zhǎng)和良好的環(huán)境有利于健康的改善,同時(shí)低碳生活方式能夠促進(jìn)社區(qū)居民健康狀況的改善。關(guān)于低碳經(jīng)濟(jì)和健康的協(xié)調(diào)狀態(tài),2000-2013年間我國(guó)的經(jīng)濟(jì)、環(huán)境、健康協(xié)調(diào)情況雖然得到改善,但仍處于“弱協(xié)調(diào)”階段,尚沒(méi)有形成可持續(xù)發(fā)展所必需的協(xié)調(diào)的系統(tǒng)關(guān)系,距離“優(yōu)質(zhì)協(xié)調(diào)”狀態(tài)還有很長(zhǎng)的距離。多目標(biāo)優(yōu)化結(jié)果顯示,產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)、碳排放、綠化水平等指標(biāo)是影響EEH系統(tǒng)協(xié)調(diào)的關(guān)鍵指標(biāo)。最后,低碳經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展模式應(yīng)該建立在“經(jīng)濟(jì)-環(huán)境-健康”三系統(tǒng)協(xié)調(diào)發(fā)展的基礎(chǔ)上,是“經(jīng)濟(jì)-環(huán)境-健康”三維一體的多目標(biāo)復(fù)合系統(tǒng)和有機(jī)整體,不能單純從經(jīng)濟(jì)角度或環(huán)境角度等單方面決策。 因此,本文從系統(tǒng)論的角度提出低碳經(jīng)濟(jì)的發(fā)展模式,即綜合經(jīng)濟(jì)保障系統(tǒng)、環(huán)境保障系統(tǒng)、社會(huì)保障系統(tǒng)和制度保障系統(tǒng)的系統(tǒng)化的低碳經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展模式。要統(tǒng)籌規(guī)劃,綜合決策,兼顧經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)、環(huán)境保護(hù)和健康促進(jìn),從而實(shí)現(xiàn)可持續(xù)發(fā)展。本文的創(chuàng)新之處在于從居民健康的視角研究低碳經(jīng)濟(jì)的發(fā)展問(wèn)題,首次構(gòu)建了“經(jīng)濟(jì)-環(huán)境-健康”系統(tǒng)協(xié)調(diào)發(fā)展的多目標(biāo)規(guī)劃模型,在“經(jīng)濟(jì)-環(huán)境-健康”協(xié)調(diào)發(fā)展和多目標(biāo)優(yōu)化的基礎(chǔ)上提出系統(tǒng)化的低碳經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展模式,豐富了低碳經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展的理論體系；理論機(jī)制分析可為研究低碳經(jīng)濟(jì)對(duì)居民健康的影響提供理論基礎(chǔ)；研究方法方面低碳經(jīng)濟(jì)和健康綜合評(píng)價(jià)指標(biāo)體系的構(gòu)建可得到比單一指標(biāo)或綜合評(píng)價(jià)模型更為穩(wěn)健的結(jié)果；組合賦權(quán)法的使用有效避免了客觀賦權(quán)法和主觀賦權(quán)法的缺陷；實(shí)證分析方面改變空氣污染急性健康效應(yīng)和慢性健康效應(yīng)的傳統(tǒng)思路,從宏觀效應(yīng)和微觀效應(yīng)的角度系統(tǒng)地分析了低碳經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展的居民健康效應(yīng),豐富了低碳經(jīng)濟(jì)健康效應(yīng)定量分析的內(nèi)容,改善了定性研究占主導(dǎo)的局面。多層面多類型數(shù)據(jù)分析的穩(wěn)健性結(jié)果彌補(bǔ)了單一數(shù)據(jù)導(dǎo)致的片面結(jié)論。
[Abstract]:At the same time, the extensive mode of economic growth has brought economic growth as we bring about the deterioration of the environment, haze, acid rain, climate warming and other environmental problems frequently brings harm to human health, but also to the production and development of human pose a threat. Therefore, how to maintain economic growth in security at the same time, effectively protect the environment and to protect the health of residents is an important issue for each country government to resolve the.2010 China surpassed Japan to become the world's second largest economy at the same time, also become the world's largest emitters of greenhouse gas pollution and environmental pollution of visible power. The development of low-carbon economy, improving the health of the people and to realize the economic, environmental, health and sustainable development of our country is urgent and important. So the development of low-carbon economy will bring what kind of impact the health of residents, the answer to this question will help us to have a more clear understanding to the hair The importance of the development of low-carbon economy, but also help us to identify the low carbon economy should follow what development model. This study can provide theoretical guidance for the practice oriented development of low carbon economy in our country, has formulated the corresponding economic environment, government departments, to provide reference for the related policies and measures of health, has the theoretical and practical significance. Based on the previous research, comprehensive environmental economics, health economics, public economics and econometrics theory, using normative economics and positive economics, macroeconomics and microeconomics, research methods of qualitative research and quantitative research, firstly discusses the impact of health the development of low carbon economy, coordination status and optimization strategy for further study of the two, on the basis of the development of low carbon economy model. Mainly answers the following questions Question: what is the low carbon economy and residents of the relationship between health (What)? Why there is such a relationship between low carbon economy and the health of residents (Why)? The degree of influence of low carbon economy on the health of residents have much (How)? How about the relationship of low carbon economy at present and health (How) coordination? Low carbon economy should follow? What kind of development model to promote better health (What)? Therefore, this paper carried out the following analysis: first, based on the full analysis of the low carbon economy and the health of the connotation, the generalized low carbon economy and the broad definition of health, using the LOWA operator method for screening index evaluation system of low-carbon economy and residents health evaluation index system were constructed; using combination of factor analysis and AHP weighting method to calculate the weights of each index; take 2000-2013 in our country the corresponding index data obtained by low carbon The comprehensive index of economic comprehensive index and the health of the residents as the representative of China's low carbon economy and residents' health status. Then by using the cointegration analysis, error correction model and Granger causality test to analyze the relationship between low carbon economy and the health of residents in China. Second, analysis on the health effects of low carbon economy mechanism theory, path analysis respectively. From the mechanism, and the theoretical model of three aspects: (1) from the economic factors, environmental factors and lifestyle in three ways to explain the mechanism of the low carbon economy health effects; (2) from greenhouse gas and other gaseous pollutants from the main channel, the electric power industry, household energy, transportation four areas of transportation, food and agricultural production on the impact of low carbon economy healthy path analysis; (3) based on the existing health production function analysis, Grossman (1972) to create the health production function On the basis of the foundation of the micro and macro health production function of Cobb Douglas form as the analysis model. Third, analysis of the health effects of low carbon economy residents. Low carbon economy is decomposed into economic factors, environmental factors, life style three aspects to investigate its effects on the health of residents. First of all, from the two aspects of economic factors and environmental factors of low carbon economy, selected panel data at the national level, city level time series data analysis of the macroeconomic effect of low carbon economy on the health of residents and microscopic effects, comprehensive consideration of environmental pollution, the impact of economic growth on the health of residents. Secondly, due to the effects of lifestyle on health it is difficult to obtain data, can not be reflected in the health effects in the model, so the use of homemade "low carbon life and Health > sample survey questionnaire. Fourth, the research of low carbon economy and A healthy relationship is harmonious coordination state or economy environment health system three problems. Firstly, the fuzzy membership function of the three coordinated state system coordination degree method to measure "economy environment health"; secondly, multi-objective optimization of economy environment health system coordinated development, and the target calculation the values were compared and analyzed. This study found that: since 2000, China's low carbon economy development level and health level showed a rising trend, there is a cointegration relationship is a long-term stable relationship between the two, at the same time there are short-term fluctuations; low carbon economy has promoting effect on health, but after a certain lag low to appear. Carbon economy through economic factors, effects of environmental factors and lifestyle health. No matter how representative selection index, or select what kind of level data, low carbon economy macro micro Study on residents health effects were found in economic growth and a favorable environment conducive to health improvement, while low carbon lifestyle can promote the health of community residents. The improvement of a low carbon economy and healthy state of coordination, economy, China's environmental health 2000-2013 years, although coordination improved, but still in "weak coordination" stage, is not necessary for the formation of sustainable development coordination system, from "quality coordination" is still a long distance. The multi-objective optimization results show that the industrial structure, carbon emission index, green level is a key index of the development of EEH system. Finally, the development of low carbon economy mode should be based on the coordinated development of economy environment health "three system," multi target compound system of economy environment and health "three in one organic whole, not only from the Economic angle or angle of unilateral decision environment. Therefore, the thesis puts forward the development model of low carbon economy from the angle of system theory, the comprehensive economic security system, environmental protection system, social security system and system protection system of low carbon economy development mode. To co-ordinate the planning, decision-making, taking into account the economic growth and the environment protection and health promotion, so as to realize the sustainable development. The innovation of this paper is from the perspective of the development of health problems of the residents of low carbon economy, for the first time established the multi-objective programming model of economy environment health system coordinated development, put forward the development mode of the system of low carbon economy on the basis of the coordinated development of economy environment - health and multi-objective optimization, enriches the theory system of low-carbon economic development; the theory of mechanism analysis can provide theory to affect the health of residents of low carbon economy The basic construction; available for more robust results than the single index and comprehensive evaluation model of low carbon economy and health comprehensive evaluation index system; using the combination weighting method can effectively avoid the objective method and subjective weighting method defects; empirical analysis of traditional ideas to change the air pollution acute health effects and chronic health the effect, from the macroscopic effect and microcosmic effect were analyzed systematically the health effects of low carbon economic development residents, enrich the health effect of low carbon economy quantitative content, improve the qualitative study of the dominant situation. Analysis of multi type data results for the robustness of a single data one-sided conclusion caused.

【學(xué)位授予單位】：山東大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：博士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2016
【分類號(hào)】：R1;F124.5

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相關(guān)期刊論文 前10條

1 董潔;李夢(mèng)茹;孫若丹;申紅艷;bF鐵梅;;我國(guó)空氣質(zhì)量標(biāo)準(zhǔn)執(zhí)行現(xiàn)狀及與國(guó)外標(biāo)準(zhǔn)比較研究[J];環(huán)境與可持續(xù)發(fā)展;2015年05期

2 梁志江;馬遠(yuǎn)珠;繆華章;李詩(shī)韻;武麗;吳云濤;趙慶國(guó);;廣州地區(qū)空氣污染對(duì)兒童呼吸系統(tǒng)疾病就診人次的影響研究[J];環(huán)境與健康雜志;2015年06期

3 葛錫泳;王臨池;陸艷;姚玉剛;胡一河;劉峰磊;楊海兵;;蘇州市大氣顆粒物與居民呼吸系統(tǒng)疾病死亡的時(shí)間序列分析[J];環(huán)境與健康雜志;2015年06期

4 張開(kāi)月;陳曉東;周連;李nInI;孫慶華;;南京市大氣PM10與居民死亡關(guān)系的時(shí)間序列分析[J];環(huán)境與健康雜志;2015年06期

5 李盛;王金玉;王宇紅;徐曉楠;;大氣污染對(duì)蘭州市城關(guān)區(qū)小學(xué)生肺通氣功能的影響[J];環(huán)境與健康雜志;2015年06期

6 張捷;趙秀娟;;碳減排目標(biāo)下的廣東省產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)優(yōu)化研究——基于投入產(chǎn)出模型和多目標(biāo)規(guī)劃模型的模擬分析[J];中國(guó)工業(yè)經(jīng)濟(jì);2015年06期

7 刁麗晗;李勇;;我國(guó)農(nóng)村居民健康需求的影響研究[J];衛(wèi)生軟科學(xué);2015年06期

8 王三秀;;健康權(quán)公平視角下的貧困人群醫(yī)療保障策略[J];中國(guó)醫(yī)療保險(xiǎn);2015年05期

9 吳丹;;我國(guó)低碳經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展路徑選擇[J];安徽農(nóng)業(yè)科學(xué);2015年10期

10 趙海鳳;閆昱霖;張大紅;;低碳經(jīng)濟(jì)計(jì)量模式[J];生態(tài)學(xué)報(bào);2015年04期

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