本文關(guān)鍵詞：污染產(chǎn)業(yè)轉(zhuǎn)移對我國中西部地區(qū)經(jīng)濟發(fā)展和居民健康影響研究　出處：《吉林大學(xué)》2016年博士論文　論文類型：學(xué)位論文

  更多相關(guān)文章： 污染產(chǎn)業(yè)轉(zhuǎn)移 經(jīng)濟發(fā)展 環(huán)境污染 居民健康 健康支出

【摘要】：經(jīng)濟發(fā)展過程中,承接污染產(chǎn)業(yè)轉(zhuǎn)移在為地方經(jīng)濟發(fā)展帶來機遇的同時,也附帶產(chǎn)生了一系列環(huán)境污染、生態(tài)失衡等問題,并給承接地居民健康帶來了潛在風(fēng)險。當(dāng)前隨著我國東部及沿海長三角、珠三角等發(fā)達地區(qū)環(huán)境規(guī)制的增強以及勞動力成本的攀升,大量污染型產(chǎn)業(yè)開始逐步轉(zhuǎn)移到廣大中西部地區(qū)。由于中西部地區(qū)生態(tài)系統(tǒng)相對脆弱,受經(jīng)濟發(fā)展水平的限制,生態(tài)環(huán)境一旦損傷則短期較難恢復(fù),并且環(huán)境污染所產(chǎn)生的健康問題也可能直接影響該區(qū)域內(nèi)居民的基本生活質(zhì)量。鑒于此,為提升中西部地區(qū)對承接污染產(chǎn)業(yè)的合理認知和價值判斷,進而準確識別承接污染產(chǎn)業(yè)的經(jīng)濟效應(yīng)與健康風(fēng)險,本文在充分吸納和借鑒國內(nèi)外相關(guān)研究成果的基礎(chǔ)上,圍繞中西部地區(qū)承接污染產(chǎn)業(yè)轉(zhuǎn)移與居民健康問題,著重探討了四個方面的內(nèi)容:首先是當(dāng)前我國區(qū)域污染轉(zhuǎn)移的格局及發(fā)展趨勢;其次是污染產(chǎn)業(yè)轉(zhuǎn)移對于中西部承接地區(qū)的經(jīng)濟效應(yīng);最后從微觀和宏觀角度,分別考察了現(xiàn)階段污染產(chǎn)業(yè)轉(zhuǎn)移對于中西部居民個體健康和健康支出的影響。論文主要研究工作及相關(guān)結(jié)論如下:(1)我國區(qū)域污染轉(zhuǎn)移的特征及其變動趨勢。本文基于省域?qū)用娴墓I(yè)二氧化硫排放數(shù)據(jù),利用泰爾指數(shù)差異分解法對我國東、中、西三個區(qū)域的污染排放強度進行測度,并對區(qū)域污染排放的差異化趨勢和轉(zhuǎn)移特征進行分析。研究發(fā)現(xiàn),我國區(qū)域污染排放差異主要表現(xiàn)為以中、東部為主的區(qū)域內(nèi)差異,西部地區(qū)的內(nèi)部差異正在迅速拉大,污染轉(zhuǎn)移整體呈現(xiàn)出向中西部內(nèi)遷的趨勢。結(jié)合環(huán)境庫茲涅茨曲線(EKC)理論,針對普通面板門檻回歸并不能精準反映出變量系數(shù)的平滑轉(zhuǎn)移趨勢問題,本文利用面板平滑轉(zhuǎn)換模型分析,得出了各省區(qū)的污染排放強度隨收入增長而整體呈現(xiàn)出一種拖尾式倒“U”型發(fā)展趨勢的結(jié)論,且在人均GDP相對較低和較高區(qū)域分別存在1.22萬元與4.27萬元兩個收入排放閾值點。針對污染排放閾值格局以及象限分布的研究表明,以中西部省份為主的多數(shù)人均GDP相對較低省份正處于污染排放的高峰期,尤其是污染轉(zhuǎn)移趨勢較為明顯的西北和西南部分區(qū)域,需要重點加強監(jiān)控和治理。(2)污染產(chǎn)業(yè)轉(zhuǎn)移對于中西部地區(qū)的經(jīng)濟效應(yīng)研究。由于污染產(chǎn)業(yè)轉(zhuǎn)移對區(qū)域經(jīng)濟、環(huán)境的影響均是一個動態(tài)過程,因此不同于一般研究中對于污染轉(zhuǎn)移總量效果的評價,本文利用時變參數(shù)向量自回歸模型,從動態(tài)沖擊的角度考察污染產(chǎn)業(yè)轉(zhuǎn)移對承接地區(qū)經(jīng)濟的動態(tài)影響。研究表明,污染產(chǎn)業(yè)在轉(zhuǎn)移初期對承接地區(qū)經(jīng)濟增長、就業(yè)以及居民收入均存在較為顯著的正向影響,而后在經(jīng)歷短期反向波動后逐步趨于平穩(wěn),因此污染產(chǎn)業(yè)轉(zhuǎn)移對于承接地區(qū)的經(jīng)濟拉動主要表現(xiàn)為短期效應(yīng)。進一步的結(jié)構(gòu)性沖擊差異分析顯示,當(dāng)經(jīng)濟處于衰退初期時,除對就業(yè)的短期拉升相對較弱外,污染產(chǎn)業(yè)的轉(zhuǎn)移促進了中西部承接地區(qū)的經(jīng)濟增長和居民收入水平的提升。但在“新常態(tài)”階段的經(jīng)濟轉(zhuǎn)型期,污染產(chǎn)業(yè)轉(zhuǎn)移對于中西部經(jīng)濟發(fā)展的短期拉升作用總體相對較為溫和。(3)污染產(chǎn)業(yè)轉(zhuǎn)移對于中西部地區(qū)居民個體健康的影響分析。在對中國健康與養(yǎng)老追蹤調(diào)查(CHARLS)微觀調(diào)研數(shù)據(jù)系統(tǒng)分析的基礎(chǔ)上,本文選用有序Probit模型,從受訪者的當(dāng)期自評健康和追訪期健康變動兩個方面,對中西部污染產(chǎn)業(yè)承接地區(qū)居民的個體健康狀況進行靜態(tài)和動態(tài)考察。研究表明,當(dāng)前整體上我國多數(shù)居民的自評健康處于中等偏下水平,其中中西部地區(qū)健康水平的惡化趨勢相對快于全國平均水平;而從動態(tài)變動角度看,雖然污染產(chǎn)業(yè)轉(zhuǎn)移在趨勢上增加了中西部居民的患病風(fēng)險,但尚未達到顯著增加患病的臨界水平。進一步的分組對照研究顯示,相比于中西部地區(qū)的普通居民,非農(nóng)戶口群體、55-74歲間的中老年人,以及收入相對較低的群體最易收到污染產(chǎn)業(yè)轉(zhuǎn)移沖擊的影響,因此,政府在實施產(chǎn)業(yè)承接過程中應(yīng)重點加強對于上述人群的關(guān)注。(4)污染產(chǎn)業(yè)轉(zhuǎn)移對于中西部居民健康支出的影響研究。本文利用行業(yè)污染物排放密度評價指數(shù)研究我國中、西部地區(qū)污染密集型產(chǎn)業(yè)的變動趨勢,并結(jié)合地理位置權(quán)重的空間計量模型,分析了污染產(chǎn)業(yè)轉(zhuǎn)移對中西部居民健康支出的影響。結(jié)論表明,現(xiàn)階段我國污染密集型產(chǎn)業(yè)總體上主要集中于東部地區(qū),但從轉(zhuǎn)移趨勢看,中部地區(qū)對于污染密集型產(chǎn)業(yè)的承接增速明顯快于西部地區(qū)。從結(jié)構(gòu)分析過程看,當(dāng)前污染密集型產(chǎn)業(yè)承接對于中西部區(qū)域居民的健康支出具有顯著影響,且污染產(chǎn)業(yè)承接的收入增長效應(yīng)大于污染所造成的健康支出效應(yīng),因此整體上污染產(chǎn)業(yè)承接有效地提升了中西部居民的總量收入水平。在區(qū)域比較方面,中部地區(qū)對污染密集型產(chǎn)業(yè)承接的經(jīng)濟增長效應(yīng)顯著大于污染所帶來的健康支出效應(yīng),但在西部地區(qū),這種產(chǎn)業(yè)轉(zhuǎn)移對于健康支出的影響并不顯著,這與西部地區(qū)經(jīng)濟基礎(chǔ)較為薄弱、地緣劣勢較為明顯所導(dǎo)致的承接企業(yè)數(shù)量及質(zhì)量均顯著落后于中部地區(qū)有關(guān)。客觀地評估污染產(chǎn)業(yè)轉(zhuǎn)移對經(jīng)濟發(fā)展以及居民健康的影響,是現(xiàn)階段我國中西部地區(qū)科學(xué)合理地制定產(chǎn)業(yè)承接政策、維護區(qū)域生態(tài)均衡和居民健康的重要保障�；陟o態(tài)評估與動態(tài)分析等多維視角,本文研究驗證了當(dāng)前我國污染產(chǎn)業(yè)呈現(xiàn)整體向中西部轉(zhuǎn)移的趨勢,這種轉(zhuǎn)移不僅體現(xiàn)為污染轉(zhuǎn)移總量攀升,而且轉(zhuǎn)移的差異化擴散趨勢也較為明顯。污染產(chǎn)業(yè)的承接雖然為中西部地區(qū)的經(jīng)濟發(fā)展帶來機遇,但實證分析也表明這種促進作用較為短暫且不可持續(xù)。而后實證發(fā)現(xiàn),雖然現(xiàn)階段中西部污染產(chǎn)業(yè)承接地區(qū)居民的患病率并未顯著提升,但居民感覺個體健康變差的概率有顯著上升趨勢�？梢�,雖然現(xiàn)階段中西部地區(qū)的污染產(chǎn)業(yè)承接的收入增長效應(yīng)大于污染所造成的健康支出效應(yīng),但潛在的承接地居民健康惡化風(fēng)險必須及時引起關(guān)注。這既需要中西部地區(qū)加強對污染的源頭控制和末端治理,同時也要利用環(huán)境危害評估及生態(tài)補償與修復(fù)等措施,將污染產(chǎn)業(yè)承接的居民健康風(fēng)險降至最低。
[Abstract]:In the process of economic development, to undertake the transfer of industrial pollution brings the opportunities for local economic development at the same time, it has also produced a series of environmental pollution, ecological imbalance and other issues, and to undertake the health of the residents of potential risk. With the current Eastern and coastal Yangtze River Delta of China, strengthen environmental regulation in developed areas in the Pearl River Delta and the rise labor costs, a large number of polluting industries began to gradually shift to the central and western regions. Because the ecological system of the central and western regions is relatively fragile, limited by the level of economic development, ecological environment damage is difficult to recover once the short-term, health problems and the resulting environmental pollution may also directly affect the basic quality of life of the residents in the region. In view of this in order to improve the central and western regions, to undertake industrial pollution, rational cognition and value judgment, and accurately identify the economic effects of industrial pollution, undertake In this paper, and the health risk, fully absorb and based on the relevant research results at home and abroad, focusing on the transfer of polluting industries and residents health problems in Midwest, focusing on four aspects: the first part is the current situation and development trend of regional pollution transfer in China; second is the transfer of polluting industries for the Midwest undertake economic effect in the end; from the micro and macro perspectives, respectively analyzes the transfer of industrial pollution impact on individual health and health expenditure in the Midwest. The main research work and conclusions are as follows: (1) the characteristics and trend of regional pollution in China. In this paper, industrial sulfur dioxide emissions data at provincial level based on in the East China, using Theil index decomposition method, measure the pollution intensity of the West three regions, and the regional differences on the discharge of pollution The trend and transfer characteristics were analyzed. The study found that the difference of regional pollution emissions in China is mainly in the eastern region, the main differences, internal differences in the western region is rapidly widening, showing the whole pollution transfer to the Midwest migration trend. Combined with the environmental Kuznets curve (EKC) theory for ordinary panel threshold return and can not accurately reflect the trend of transfer coefficient variable smoothing problem, this paper uses the panel smooth transition model analysis, the regional pollution emission intensity with revenue growth overall showing a trail type inverted "U" type development trend and conclusions, the per capita GDP is relatively low and high area respectively. 12 thousand and 200 yuan and 42 thousand and 700 yuan two income threshold. According to the emission of pollution emissions and distribution pattern of threshold quadrant shows that most of the per capita GDP in central and western provinces as opposed Low pollution emission peak is in the provinces, especially the pollution transfer more obvious trend of the northwest and southwest part of the region, the need to focus on strengthening the monitoring and management. (2) the transfer of polluting industries for the study of economic effect in the central and western regions. Because of the transfer of polluting industries on the regional economy, the environmental impact is a dynamic process, therefore different from the pollution transfer of total effect evaluation of the general study, this paper uses time-varying parameter vector autoregressive model, from the perspective of dynamic impact angle dynamic effect on the transfer of polluting industries to undertake the region economy. The study showed that the pollution of industry in the early shift to undertake regional economic growth, employment and income have significant positive influence then, after short-term reverse fluctuations after gradually stabilized, so the transfer of polluting industries to undertake the region's economic pull the main performance As a short-term effect. Analysis of the structural impact of differences further showed that when the economy is in a recession early, in addition to try for the short-term relatively weak employment, promote the transfer of industrial pollution in the Midwest to undertake the region's economic growth and the upgrading of the level of income. But during the period of economic transformation in the "new normal" stage, the transfer of polluting industries for the economic development of the Midwest to try for the short-term overall relatively mild. (3) analysis of the effects of individual health residents in central and western regions transfer of industrial pollution. In the investigation of China health and pension (CHARLS) based on analysis of the micro survey data on the system, this paper selects the ordered Probit model from the respondent's current self rated health and follow up health changes in two aspects of industrial pollution Midwest undertake the health status of individual residents of the static and dynamic study. The study shows that the current Self rated health in the middle and lower overall level of the majority of our residents, the deterioration of health level of the central and western regions is relatively faster than the national average; from the dynamic point of view, although the transfer of industrial pollution and increase the risk of illness in the Midwest trend, but has not yet reached the critical level significantly increased prevalence of research. Then the control group, compared to the central and western regions of the general population, non-agricultural household population, aged 55-74 in the elderly, and the relatively low income groups are most easily affected, so the impact of pollution industry transfer, the government should focus on strengthening the crowd's attention in the implementation of industrial process (4). The effect of health expenditure Midwest research of pollution industry transfer. China Index Research of pollutant emission density evaluation industry in this paper, the western region pollution intensive The change trend of industry, and combined with the spatial econometric model location weights, analysis of pollution industry transfer effects on health expenditure. The conclusion shows that the Midwest, at this stage of China's pollution intensive industry as a whole is mainly concentrated in the eastern region, but the transfer from the trend, the central region for pollution intensive industries to undertake growth faster than the western region. The analysis process from the perspective of structure, the current pollution intensive industrial undertaking has significant impact on the Midwest area residents health expenditure, health expenditure growth and the effect of Xiao Yingda on the polluted industrial income caused by pollution, so the overall pollution industry to undertake effectively improve the Midwest residents income level. In total regional comparison, the central region of the economic growth effect of pollution intensive industrial undertaking was significantly greater than that caused by pollution of health expenditure Effect, but in the western region, the industrial transfer effect on health expenditure is not significant, and the economic base of the western region is relatively weak, geopolitical disadvantages are obvious quantity and quality to undertake the enterprise caused significantly behind in the central region. The objective assessment of pollution industry transfer effect on the economic development and the health of residents, is at this stage the Midwest China's scientific and reasonable development of industrial policy, an important guarantee for maintaining regional ecological balance and the health of residents. The static evaluation and dynamic analysis perspective based on this research verified the current China's pollution industry transfer to the Midwest showed an overall trend, this transfer is reflected not only the total rise to pollution transfer, and transfer the difference of the diffusion trend is more obvious. Although the pollution industry to undertake bring opportunities for the economic development in the Midwest, but Analysis also shows that this effect is relatively short and unsustainable. Then the empirical analysis found that although at this stage of industrial pollution, residents of the Midwest undertake prevalence rate has not significantly improved, but the probability of individual residents feel poor health has a significant upward trend. Therefore, although the health expenditure effect of pollution industry at this stage in the central and western regions to undertake income growth the effect is greater than the pollution caused by, but the potential risk of deterioration of the health of the residents must undertake timely attention. This not only need to strengthen the source of pollution control and governance at the end of the central and western regions, but also to the environmental risk assessment and ecological compensation and restoration measures, the health risks of pollution industry to undertake residents to a minimum.

【學(xué)位授予單位】：吉林大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級別】：博士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2016
【分類號】：F127;X503.1;X22

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