本文關鍵詞：電網(wǎng)運營風險度量、預警與防控優(yōu)化模型研究　出處：《華北電力大學(北京)》2016年博士論文　論文類型：學位論文

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【摘要】：電網(wǎng)企業(yè)不僅面臨普通企業(yè)所共有的風險,而且由于電力經(jīng)營的特殊性,使得電網(wǎng)企業(yè)還面臨某些特有的風險和威脅。電力的供需要求實時平衡,電力不能大量經(jīng)濟的儲存,各個環(huán)節(jié)瞬時一次性完成。這些特點使得電網(wǎng)企業(yè)在運營過程中面臨諸多的不確定性。隨著我國電力市場化改革的進行,電力企業(yè)從傳統(tǒng)的一體化壟斷經(jīng)營,發(fā)售分離,使得電網(wǎng)企業(yè)成為獨立的運作實體。電網(wǎng)企業(yè)運營面臨著各種風險,電網(wǎng)企業(yè)與發(fā)電生產(chǎn)企業(yè)、電網(wǎng)企業(yè)以及電力用戶之間都將進行交易。隨著改革的不斷深入,電網(wǎng)企業(yè)的經(jīng)營和管理將面臨更多的不確定性。本文運用風險管理理論和方法、最優(yōu)化理論、系統(tǒng)工程理論與方法最新成果研究電網(wǎng)企業(yè)在節(jié)能、環(huán)保與市場化的環(huán)境下的電網(wǎng)企業(yè)風險系統(tǒng)辨識、評價與風險度量與優(yōu)化控制模型。論文的主要研究內(nèi)容如下：(1)介紹了電網(wǎng)運營風險管理的基本流程,主要包括五個環(huán)節(jié),分別是電網(wǎng)運營風險識別、電網(wǎng)運營風險分析、電網(wǎng)運營風險度量、電網(wǎng)運營風險預警和電網(wǎng)運營風險防控,為后續(xù)章節(jié)的研究奠定了理論基礎。(2)建立了電網(wǎng)運營風險關系分析模型。首先,引入系統(tǒng)識別風險的思想和方法構建電網(wǎng)企業(yè)風險的多維度風險識別模型。然后,將經(jīng)典解釋結構模型擴展至模糊集,構建了電網(wǎng)運營風險鏈接關系分析度模型。最后,通過實例分析驗證了模型的有效性和適用性,并確定了電網(wǎng)運營風險因素間的多元鏈接關系。(3)建立了電網(wǎng)運營風險度量模型。從購電側、輸配電側、售電側三個環(huán)節(jié),分別構建了電網(wǎng)省內(nèi)外購電風險度量分析模型、大用戶直購電交易風險度量模型和電網(wǎng)售電風險度量分析模型,并通過實例分析驗證了模型的有效性和適用性,確定了影響電網(wǎng)企業(yè)風險的關鍵性因素,反映了運營風險因素與效益實際情況,為管控電網(wǎng)穩(wěn)定運營提供了良好的決策工具。(4)建立了電網(wǎng)運營風險預警模型,具體包括電網(wǎng)運營風險預警分級設計模型、電網(wǎng)運營風險指標閾值設計模型和電網(wǎng)運營廣義回歸神經(jīng)模型。首先,介紹了風險預警的基本概念、分級方法,建立了電網(wǎng)運營風險預警系統(tǒng)；然后,引入層次分析法確定風險指標權重,建立了風險指標閾值設計模型；最后,應用廣義回歸神經(jīng)模型,構建了電網(wǎng)運營風險預警模型。(5)建立了電網(wǎng)運營風險防控優(yōu)化模型,主要包括電網(wǎng)組合購電風險防控優(yōu)化模型、電網(wǎng)企業(yè)備用容量風險優(yōu)化模型、電網(wǎng)售電風險防控優(yōu)化模型和電網(wǎng)風險防控綜合優(yōu)化模型四個方面,通過實例分析驗證了模型的有效性和適用性,為電網(wǎng)運營風險多方面防控提供了決策依據(jù)。
[Abstract]:Grid enterprises not only face the risks common to ordinary enterprises, but also face some unique risks and threats due to the particularity of electricity management. The demand and supply of power demand needs to be balanced in real time. Electricity can not be stored in a large amount of economy, and every link can be completed at one time. These characteristics make power grid enterprises face a lot of uncertainties in the process of operation. With the development of power market reform in China. Electric power enterprises are separated from traditional integrated monopoly and sale, which makes grid enterprises become independent operation entities. Power grid enterprises are faced with various risks, power grid enterprises and power generation production enterprises. With the deepening of the reform, the management and management of power grid enterprises will face more uncertainty. This paper applies the theory and method of risk management, optimization theory. The latest achievements of system Engineering Theory and method Research on Power Grid Enterprise risk Identification in the Environment of Energy Saving, Environmental Protection and marketization. Evaluation and risk measurement and optimal control model. The main research contents of this paper are as follows: 1) the basic process of grid operational risk management is introduced, which mainly includes five links, namely grid operational risk identification. Network operation risk analysis, network operation risk measurement, network operation risk warning and grid operation risk prevention and control. For the subsequent chapter of the study laid a theoretical foundation. 2) established the grid operation risk relationship analysis model. First of all. The idea and method of system risk identification are introduced to construct the multi-dimensional risk identification model of power grid enterprise risk. Then, the classical explanatory structure model is extended to fuzzy set. Finally, the validity and applicability of the model are verified by an example. And determined the multiple link relationship among the network operation risk factors. 3) established the network operation risk measurement model. From the purchase side, transmission and distribution side, the sale side three links. The risk measurement model of power purchase in and out of the power grid, the risk measurement model of direct purchase of electricity for large users and the risk measurement model of electricity sale in power grid are constructed, respectively. The validity and applicability of the model are verified by an example. The key factors affecting the risk of power grid enterprises are determined, which reflect the operational risk factors and the actual situation of benefits. It provides a good decision tool for the stable operation of the power grid. It establishes the early warning model of power network operation risk, including the design model of network operation risk warning and classification. The threshold design model of power network operation risk index and the generalized regression neural model of power network operation. Firstly, the basic concept and classification method of risk early warning are introduced, and the network operation risk early warning system is established. Then, the AHP is introduced to determine the weight of the risk index, and the threshold design model of the risk index is established. Finally, the generalized regression neural model is used to construct the early warning model of power network operation risk. (5) the optimization model of network operation risk prevention and control is established, which mainly includes the optimization model of power grid combination purchase risk prevention and control. The risk optimization model of reserve capacity of power grid enterprise, the optimization model of power network sale risk prevention and control and the comprehensive optimization model of power network risk prevention and control are four aspects. The validity and applicability of the model are verified by an example. It provides decision basis for power network operation risk prevention and control in many aspects.
【學位授予單位】：華北電力大學(北京)
【學位級別】：博士
【學位授予年份】：2016
【分類號】：F426.61

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