本文關(guān)鍵詞：偏向性技術(shù)進(jìn)步下中國能源強(qiáng)度變動研究　出處：《暨南大學(xué)》2016年博士論文　論文類型：學(xué)位論文

  更多相關(guān)文章： 偏向性技術(shù)進(jìn)步 能源增強(qiáng)型CES生產(chǎn)函數(shù) 替代彈性 能源強(qiáng)度 碳強(qiáng)度目標(biāo)

【摘要】：本文從外生偏向性技術(shù)進(jìn)步和內(nèi)生偏向性技術(shù)進(jìn)步兩個視角研究了我國的能源強(qiáng)度變動原因,基于此分析了我國改革開放以來能源強(qiáng)度不斷下降和2002-2005年間能源強(qiáng)度出現(xiàn)逆勢上升的原因,并進(jìn)一步對我國2020年的能源強(qiáng)度目標(biāo)和碳目標(biāo)進(jìn)行了可行性分析。首先本文通過構(gòu)建標(biāo)準(zhǔn)化能源增強(qiáng)型CES生產(chǎn)函數(shù)來測算能源增強(qiáng)型技術(shù)進(jìn)步序列;接著本文從理論和實證兩個方面對此能源增強(qiáng)型技術(shù)進(jìn)步進(jìn)行了內(nèi)生性研究;然后本文采用指數(shù)分解法和回歸法從外生偏向性技術(shù)進(jìn)步和內(nèi)生偏向性技術(shù)進(jìn)步兩個角度對我國1981-2014年的能源強(qiáng)度增長率進(jìn)行了分解,找到了影響能源強(qiáng)度變動的主要因素;最后同樣從外生和內(nèi)生偏向性技術(shù)進(jìn)步兩個角度對能源強(qiáng)度目標(biāo)和碳目標(biāo)進(jìn)行了可行性分析。本文得出的結(jié)論主要有:第一,非嵌套式的能源增強(qiáng)型CES生產(chǎn)函數(shù)比嵌套式更貼近中國的實際,在非嵌套式下得到的兩兩要素間的替代彈性為0.367,能源增強(qiáng)型技術(shù)進(jìn)步年均增長率為3.92%;第二,要素相對增強(qiáng)型技術(shù)與要素相對價格、國際貿(mào)易之間存在長期穩(wěn)定的均衡關(guān)系,這說明我國技術(shù)進(jìn)步的方向是具有內(nèi)生性的;第三,從外生偏向性技術(shù)進(jìn)步下的分解模型來看,能源增強(qiáng)型技術(shù)進(jìn)步在我國能源強(qiáng)度的變化中起著主要的解釋作用,能源增強(qiáng)型技術(shù)進(jìn)步解釋了70%的能源強(qiáng)度變化,能源價格解釋了30%的能源強(qiáng)度變化;第四,從內(nèi)生偏向性技術(shù)進(jìn)步下的分解模型來看,影響能源強(qiáng)度變化的主要因素是研發(fā)投入,其次是能源價格,接下來是外商直接投資,產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)則為負(fù)貢獻(xiàn)因素;第五,在未來實際能源價格1.5%、2.5%、3.5%三種增速情景下,要同時實現(xiàn)能源強(qiáng)度和碳強(qiáng)度目標(biāo)的話,能源增強(qiáng)型技術(shù)進(jìn)步年均增速需分別達(dá)到5.19%、4.92%、4.64%,而要達(dá)到這一增速的話,我國2020年末的第三產(chǎn)業(yè)比重需要調(diào)整至57.174%、56.523%、55.855%。
[Abstract]:In this paper, the causes of energy intensity change in China are studied from the perspectives of exogenous biased technological progress and endogenous biased technological progress. Based on this analysis of the energy intensity of China since the reform and opening up and the energy intensity from 2002-2005 to rise in reverse trend reasons. Furthermore, the feasibility of energy intensity target and carbon target in 2020 is analyzed. Firstly, this paper calculates the progress sequence of energy enhanced technology by constructing standardized energy enhanced CES production function. Secondly, this paper makes an endogenous study on the energy enhanced technology from both theoretical and empirical aspects. Then this paper uses exponential decomposition method and regression method to decompose the energy intensity growth rate from 1981 to 2014 in China from the perspective of exogenous biased technological progress and endogenous biased technological progress. The main factors influencing the change of energy intensity are found. At last, the feasibility of energy intensity target and carbon target is analyzed from the perspective of exogenous and endogenous biased technological progress. The main conclusions of this paper are as follows: first. The non-nested energy enhanced CES production function is closer to the reality of China than the nested one. The substitution elasticity between the two elements obtained under the non-nested formula is 0.367. The average annual growth rate of energy enhanced technology progress is 3.92%; Secondly, there is a long and stable equilibrium relationship between the relative enhanced technology and the relative price of the elements and the international trade, which shows that the direction of technological progress in China is endogenous; Thirdly, from the decomposition model of exogenous biased technological progress, the energy-enhanced technological progress plays a major role in explaining the change of energy intensity in China. The energy enhancement technology has explained the change of energy intensity in 70% and the energy price in 30%. 4th, from the decomposition model of endogenous biased technological progress, the main factor affecting the change of energy intensity is R & D investment, followed by energy price, followed by foreign direct investment. The industrial structure is a negative contribution factor; In 5th, in the future, the actual energy price 1.5 and 2.5% of the three growth rate scenarios, to achieve energy intensity and carbon intensity targets at the same time. The annual average annual growth rate of energy enhanced technological progress needs to reach 5.19% 4.92% 4.64% respectively, and if we want to achieve this growth rate. In end of 2020, the proportion of tertiary industry in China needs to be adjusted to 57.174 and 56.5233.55.855.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：暨南大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級別】：博士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2016
【分類號】：F426.2
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本文編號：1393468