本文關(guān)鍵詞：要素稟賦變化、技術(shù)進(jìn)步偏向與農(nóng)業(yè)經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)研究　出處：《華中農(nóng)業(yè)大學(xué)》2016年博士論文　論文類(lèi)型：學(xué)位論文

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【摘要】：農(nóng)業(yè)要素稟賦條件變化是分析我國(guó)農(nóng)業(yè)經(jīng)濟(jì)問(wèn)題的邏輯起點(diǎn),也是決定農(nóng)業(yè)經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)的基礎(chǔ)因素。長(zhǎng)期以來(lái),“人多地少”反映了我國(guó)農(nóng)業(yè)要素稟賦的基本狀況,伴隨著我國(guó)農(nóng)業(yè)發(fā)展,這種狀況慢慢地發(fā)生了改變。我國(guó)“人口紅利”優(yōu)勢(shì)正逐步消失,農(nóng)村勞動(dòng)力轉(zhuǎn)移速度加快,農(nóng)村青壯年勞動(dòng)力變得日益稀缺,勞動(dòng)力成本快速上升。新世紀(jì)以來(lái),農(nóng)林牧漁業(yè)從業(yè)人數(shù)由2000年的3.28億人減少至2011年的2.74億人。從農(nóng)作物總播種面積看,改革開(kāi)放以來(lái),其總趨勢(shì)呈現(xiàn)出增長(zhǎng)趨勢(shì),由1981年的14583.77萬(wàn)hm2增長(zhǎng)至2011年的16228.32萬(wàn)hm2。農(nóng)業(yè)的快速發(fā)展為其自身積累了大量的資本,1997年以來(lái),農(nóng)業(yè)資本存量的增長(zhǎng)速度明顯提升,1997—2011年間年均增長(zhǎng)311.94億元,2011年達(dá)到了6259.71億元。與此同時(shí),我國(guó)農(nóng)業(yè)領(lǐng)域的技術(shù)創(chuàng)新取得巨大進(jìn)步,現(xiàn)代化新技術(shù)被廣泛應(yīng)用于農(nóng)業(yè)生產(chǎn)實(shí)踐,技術(shù)進(jìn)步逐步成為推動(dòng)我國(guó)農(nóng)業(yè)經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)的重要力量。根據(jù)誘致性技術(shù)創(chuàng)新理論,農(nóng)業(yè)要素稟賦的變化將會(huì)引起農(nóng)業(yè)技術(shù)進(jìn)步發(fā)生改變。那么改革開(kāi)放以來(lái)我國(guó)農(nóng)業(yè)要素稟賦具體發(fā)生了怎樣的變化?各地區(qū)間存在何種差異?在農(nóng)業(yè)要素稟賦發(fā)生變化的背景下,我國(guó)農(nóng)業(yè)技術(shù)進(jìn)步具體呈現(xiàn)出何種偏向性?在農(nóng)業(yè)要素稟賦發(fā)生變化、農(nóng)業(yè)技術(shù)進(jìn)步存在偏向的情況下,兩者間的耦合協(xié)調(diào)關(guān)系表現(xiàn)出何種變化特征?農(nóng)業(yè)技術(shù)進(jìn)步偏向及其與要素稟賦的適配度對(duì)我國(guó)農(nóng)業(yè)經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)又產(chǎn)生了怎樣的影響?本文將對(duì)上述問(wèn)題逐一展開(kāi)分析。本文首先以要素稟賦理論為依據(jù),在借鑒已有相關(guān)研究的基礎(chǔ)上,從時(shí)間和空間兩個(gè)維度對(duì)改革開(kāi)放以來(lái)我國(guó)農(nóng)業(yè)要素稟賦變化特征進(jìn)行了分析。隨后采用擴(kuò)展的DEA-Malmquis指數(shù)度量的全要素生產(chǎn)率(TFP)分解法,測(cè)度了我國(guó)全國(guó)及省際農(nóng)業(yè)技術(shù)進(jìn)步的偏向性。然后,運(yùn)用耦合協(xié)調(diào)模型分析了1981—2011年我國(guó)農(nóng)業(yè)技術(shù)進(jìn)步與要素稟賦的耦合協(xié)調(diào)度及其地區(qū)差異。其次,構(gòu)建農(nóng)業(yè)要素稟賦與經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)的脫鉤模型,檢驗(yàn)了農(nóng)業(yè)勞動(dòng)力要素、資本要素及土地要素與經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)間的脫鉤關(guān)系。再次,運(yùn)用索洛余值法表征的農(nóng)業(yè)全要素生產(chǎn)率推導(dǎo)了農(nóng)業(yè)要素稟賦變化、技術(shù)進(jìn)步偏向與經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)間的關(guān)系,并運(yùn)用相關(guān)數(shù)據(jù)進(jìn)行了實(shí)證分析。最后對(duì)全文進(jìn)行了總結(jié),提出了一些針對(duì)性的政策建議。本研究主要得出以下結(jié)論:第一,總體上我國(guó)各農(nóng)業(yè)要素比重相當(dāng),農(nóng)業(yè)資金要素比重略高。從各要素波動(dòng)狀況來(lái)看,農(nóng)業(yè)資金要素結(jié)構(gòu)指數(shù)波動(dòng)最為明顯,而土地要素結(jié)構(gòu)指數(shù)則最為穩(wěn)定。具體到各地區(qū)而言,農(nóng)業(yè)要素稟賦的變化則存在一定差異;改革開(kāi)放以來(lái),我國(guó)農(nóng)業(yè)要素結(jié)構(gòu)存在顯著的空間正相關(guān)性。其中,農(nóng)業(yè)勞動(dòng)力要素的空間正相關(guān)性最為突出,農(nóng)業(yè)資本要素和勞動(dòng)力要素的全局自相關(guān)性均呈下降趨勢(shì),而土地要素結(jié)構(gòu)指數(shù)較為穩(wěn)定;我國(guó)農(nóng)業(yè)要素稟賦結(jié)構(gòu)呈現(xiàn)出局部的時(shí)空差異,部分地區(qū)間農(nóng)業(yè)土地要素結(jié)構(gòu)指數(shù)的空間差異呈現(xiàn)出擴(kuò)大趨勢(shì)。第二,1982年以來(lái)我國(guó)各地區(qū)的農(nóng)業(yè)技術(shù)進(jìn)步整體上呈現(xiàn)出一定的偏向性。三大區(qū)域相比,我國(guó)東部地區(qū)的農(nóng)業(yè)進(jìn)步偏向性最為明顯,西部地區(qū)的農(nóng)業(yè)技術(shù)進(jìn)步偏向性阻礙了農(nóng)業(yè)生產(chǎn)率的提高;整體上我國(guó)的農(nóng)業(yè)技術(shù)進(jìn)步呈現(xiàn)出節(jié)約資本要素的特點(diǎn)。我國(guó)東部地區(qū)的農(nóng)業(yè)技術(shù)進(jìn)步整體偏向于節(jié)約資本要素,中部地區(qū)的農(nóng)業(yè)技術(shù)進(jìn)步在20世紀(jì)80年代偏向于節(jié)約勞動(dòng)力要素,此后則偏向于節(jié)約資本要素,而西部地區(qū)農(nóng)業(yè)技術(shù)進(jìn)步的要素偏向性較不穩(wěn)定;改革開(kāi)放初期,多數(shù)地區(qū)的農(nóng)業(yè)技術(shù)進(jìn)步是無(wú)偏的或偏向于節(jié)約土地要素。2002年以來(lái),農(nóng)業(yè)技術(shù)呈中性的地區(qū)逐漸減少,農(nóng)業(yè)技術(shù)進(jìn)步偏向于節(jié)約資本或者勞動(dòng)力要素的地區(qū)越來(lái)越多。第三,我國(guó)的農(nóng)業(yè)技術(shù)進(jìn)步與要素稟賦不完全耦合,各地區(qū)間存在一定差異。農(nóng)業(yè)要素稟賦結(jié)構(gòu)升級(jí)的速度滯后于農(nóng)業(yè)技術(shù)進(jìn)步的速度,兩者間的耦合性不容樂(lè)觀,且呈現(xiàn)出“u”型的變化趨勢(shì),兩者間的耦合協(xié)調(diào)關(guān)系有了較大程度的改善;各地區(qū)間農(nóng)業(yè)技術(shù)進(jìn)步和要素稟賦的耦合性及耦合協(xié)調(diào)性存在一定差異。2011年,北京和西藏兩地的農(nóng)業(yè)技術(shù)進(jìn)步與要素稟賦仍處于低水平耦合階段;目前,我國(guó)多數(shù)地區(qū)的農(nóng)業(yè)技術(shù)進(jìn)步和要素稟賦的耦合協(xié)調(diào)關(guān)系屬于中度耦合協(xié)調(diào)型,僅江蘇、山東、河南、廣東四省為高度耦合協(xié)調(diào)型。第四,在全國(guó)層面上,1982—2011年間農(nóng)業(yè)資本、勞動(dòng)力要素結(jié)構(gòu)指數(shù)與農(nóng)業(yè)經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)的脫鉤狀態(tài)以弱脫鉤為主,而土地要素結(jié)構(gòu)指數(shù)與農(nóng)業(yè)經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)的脫鉤性略偏向于強(qiáng)脫鉤。省際層面上看,農(nóng)業(yè)勞動(dòng)力結(jié)構(gòu)指數(shù)與農(nóng)業(yè)經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)為強(qiáng)脫鉤的地區(qū)有所減少,其分布在不斷向華東和西南地區(qū)集中;農(nóng)業(yè)資本結(jié)構(gòu)指數(shù)與農(nóng)業(yè)經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)間的脫鉤類(lèi)型在1995年前后發(fā)生了變化;1998年以來(lái),農(nóng)業(yè)土地結(jié)構(gòu)指數(shù)與農(nóng)業(yè)經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)間為強(qiáng)脫鉤的地區(qū)逐漸減少,而呈弱脫鉤關(guān)系的地區(qū)有所增加。第五,改革開(kāi)放以來(lái),我國(guó)農(nóng)業(yè)資本與勞動(dòng)力要素之間的替代彈性小于1,兩者之間是互補(bǔ)的;農(nóng)業(yè)勞動(dòng)力技術(shù)進(jìn)步效率增長(zhǎng)要快于農(nóng)業(yè)資本技術(shù)進(jìn)步效率增長(zhǎng)。在包含農(nóng)業(yè)資本存量和勞動(dòng)力兩種要素的條件下,我國(guó)的農(nóng)業(yè)技術(shù)進(jìn)步偏向于資本要素,但也呈現(xiàn)出一定的階段性特征。農(nóng)業(yè)資本要素效率的下降抑制了農(nóng)業(yè)全要素生產(chǎn)率的增長(zhǎng),而農(nóng)業(yè)勞動(dòng)力要素效率的提高促進(jìn)了我國(guó)農(nóng)業(yè)全要素生產(chǎn)率的增長(zhǎng)。近些年來(lái)我國(guó)農(nóng)業(yè)技術(shù)進(jìn)步偏向于資本要素,在一定程度上推動(dòng)了我國(guó)農(nóng)業(yè)全要素生產(chǎn)率的增長(zhǎng),而農(nóng)業(yè)技術(shù)進(jìn)步偏向與農(nóng)業(yè)要素稟賦變化的低耦合度阻礙了我國(guó)農(nóng)業(yè)經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)。本研究可能的創(chuàng)新之處有以下三點(diǎn):第一,本研究以農(nóng)業(yè)要素稟賦變化為邏輯起點(diǎn)對(duì)我國(guó)農(nóng)業(yè)技術(shù)進(jìn)步偏向和農(nóng)業(yè)經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)問(wèn)題展開(kāi)分析,從源頭上對(duì)相關(guān)問(wèn)題進(jìn)行更深入的剖析。已有的大部分研究主要關(guān)注于單一一種要素變化所產(chǎn)生的影響,忽視了不同種類(lèi)農(nóng)業(yè)要素的相對(duì)變化可能對(duì)農(nóng)業(yè)技術(shù)進(jìn)步偏向和經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)的影響更為深遠(yuǎn)。與同類(lèi)研究相比,本研究的邏輯起點(diǎn)可能更加接近于我國(guó)農(nóng)業(yè)要素變化的客觀事實(shí),對(duì)于相關(guān)問(wèn)題的分析更加準(zhǔn)確。第二,應(yīng)用擴(kuò)展的DEA-Malmquis指數(shù)度量的全要素生產(chǎn)率指數(shù)分解法對(duì)我國(guó)省際層面農(nóng)業(yè)技術(shù)進(jìn)步的偏向性進(jìn)行了全面的分析。在農(nóng)業(yè)技術(shù)進(jìn)步研究方面,僅有極個(gè)別研究涉及到了兩種要素在內(nèi)的農(nóng)業(yè)技術(shù)進(jìn)步偏向性,但也都沒(méi)有考慮省際間可能存在的差異性。本文則是對(duì)包含土地、資本和勞動(dòng)力三種要素下農(nóng)業(yè)技術(shù)進(jìn)步的要素偏向性進(jìn)行了測(cè)度,并分析了其時(shí)空變化特征,與已有研究相比,本文的研究有助于對(duì)我國(guó)農(nóng)業(yè)技術(shù)進(jìn)步偏向性形成更為全面的認(rèn)識(shí)。第三,現(xiàn)有研究在對(duì)農(nóng)業(yè)經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)的影響因素進(jìn)行分析時(shí),強(qiáng)調(diào)的是要素投入或技術(shù)進(jìn)步的貢獻(xiàn),沒(méi)有考察技術(shù)進(jìn)步偏向性可能產(chǎn)生的影響。本研究利用索洛余值法衡量的全要素生產(chǎn)率增長(zhǎng)率指數(shù)分解法,將影響農(nóng)業(yè)全要素生產(chǎn)率增長(zhǎng)的因素分解為要素效率增長(zhǎng)效應(yīng)、技術(shù)進(jìn)步偏向效應(yīng)及技術(shù)進(jìn)步偏向與要素稟賦的綜合效應(yīng),并采用相關(guān)數(shù)據(jù)進(jìn)行了實(shí)證分析,在一定程度上彌補(bǔ)了現(xiàn)有研究的不足之處。
[Abstract]:The change of agricultural endowments is the logical starting point of China's agricultural economy problem, basic factors also determine the agricultural economic growth. For a long time, "little people" reflects the basic status of agriculture endowment in our country, with the development of China's agriculture, this situation is slowly changed. China's population "dividend advantage is gradually disappearing, speed up the transfer of rural labor, rural labor force has become increasingly scarce, rapidly rising labor costs. Since the new century, the number of employees in animal husbandry and fishery by 2000 328 million people reduced to 274 million in 2011. The total sown area of crops, since the reform and opening up, the general trend shows the growth trend, from 1981 145 million 837 thousand and 700 to 2011 hm2 growth of 162 million 283 thousand and 200 hm2. the rapid development of agriculture has accumulated a large amount of capital for its own, since 1997, the agricultural capital deposit The growth rate increased 1997 to 2011 years the average annual growth of 31 billion 194 million yuan, in 2011 reached 625 billion 971 million yuan. At the same time, the great progress of technology innovation of our country agriculture, the modernization of the new technology is widely used in agricultural production, technological progress and gradually become an important force in promoting China's agricultural economic growth based on technological innovation. The theory of induced changes in agriculture, factor endowment will cause agricultural technology progress change. So since the reform and opening up of China's agriculture endowment specific what happens? What are the differences between different regions? Changes in agricultural resources under the background of Agricultural Technology progress in our country and show what specific bias changes? In the agricultural factor endowment, agricultural technical progress bias conditions, both the coordination of relationship between coupling displays what characteristics of agriculture? Technical progress bias and factor endowment fit on agricultural economic growth in China and what impact? This article will focus on the above-mentioned problems are analyzed. Based on factor endowment theory, on the basis of existing research, from the time and space of two dimensions of resources since the reform and opening up change of agricultural elements in China are analyzed. Then the total factor productivity by using the extended DEA-Malmquis index metric (TFP) decomposition method, bias measure of China's national and provincial agricultural technology progress. Then, using the coupling coordination model between 1981 - 2011 in China Agricultural Technology Progress and factor endowment coupling the coordination degree and area. Secondly, the construction of agricultural endowments and economic growth in the agricultural labor force decoupling model, test factors, capital and land and economic growth. Decoupling relationship. Thirdly, agricultural TFP is the Solow residual value method characterized agriculture endowment change, technological progress and economic growth relationship oriented, and makes an empirical analysis by using relevant data. Finally summarizes the full text, put forward policy recommendations for some of the needle. The main conclusions are as follows: first, the general elements of China's agricultural proportion is slightly higher. The proportion of elements of agricultural funds from various elements of fluctuation, elements of agricultural capital structure index fluctuation is most obvious, and the structure index of land is the most stable. Specific to the various regions, changes in agricultural factor endowment is different; the reform and opening up since the structure of China's agricultural factors have significant positive spatial correlation. The agriculture labor force spatial correlation is most prominent, agricultural capital and labor elements The elements of the global autocorrelation were decreased, and the structure index of land elements is relatively stable; China's agricultural factor endowment structure presents the spatial and temporal differences of local spatial difference between regions, some elements of agricultural land structure index showed a tendency to expand. In 1982 second, in every area of our country presents the overall progress of agricultural technology some bias. Compared to the three regions, the eastern region of China's agricultural progress bias is most obvious, the progress of agricultural technology in the western region tend to hinder the improvement of agricultural productivity; China's agricultural technological progress shows that the overall characteristics of saving capital. East China Agricultural Technology Progress overall in favor of saving capital, technological advances in agriculture in central region in 1980s in favor of saving labor, then tend to save the capital, and the West The elements of regional agricultural technological progress bias is not stable; the beginning of reform and opening up, the progress of agricultural technology in most regions are unbiased or biased in favor of saving land since.2002, agricultural technology neutral area gradually reduced, the progress of agricultural technology in favor of saving capital or labor more and more areas. Third, endowment progress with the elements of agricultural technology in China is not fully coupled, there are some differences between the various regions. The speed of agricultural factor endowment structure upgrading lag in agricultural technology progress speed, coupling between the two is not optimistic, and showing a "U" trend, the coordination relationship between the two is improved greatly; coupling and coupling coordination of regional agricultural technology progress and factor endowment differences exist in.2011, the progress of agricultural technology in Beijing and Tibet both with intrinsic factors Fu is still in a low coupling stage; at present, the coupling coordination between the endowment of agricultural technology progress and elements of the majority of our region is a moderate coordination type, only Jiangsu, Shandong, Henan, Guangdong province for four highly coupled coordination. Fourth, at the national level, 1982 - 2011 years of agricultural capital, labor structure index and agricultural economic growth from state to weak decoupling, and land structure index and agricultural economic growth from slightly in favor of strong decoupling. Provincial level, the index of agricultural labor force structure and agricultural economic growth in the area declined to strong decoupling, continue to focus on its distribution in the East and southwest regions; decoupling the type of agricultural capital structure index and agricultural economic growth between the changes before and after 1995; since 1998, agricultural land structure index and agricultural economic growth to strong decoupling Area gradually reduced, and a weak decoupling relationship between regions increased. Fifth, since the reform and opening up, China's agriculture between capital and labor elements of the elasticity of substitution is less than 1, between the two are complementary; increase the efficiency of agricultural labor technological progress is faster than the efficiency of agricultural technological progress in capital growth. Including agricultural capital stock and labor two elements under the condition of agricultural technology progress in China in favor of capital, but also showed a certain stage characteristics. The decline of agricultural capital efficiency inhibited the growth of agricultural total factor productivity, and promote China's agricultural TFP growth of agricultural labor force to improve the efficiency of Agricultural Technology in recent years. Progress in our country in favor of capital, to a certain extent, promote China's agricultural TFP growth and agricultural technological progress bias and agricultural factors Low coupling endowment change hindered the agricultural economic growth in China. The possible innovations of this research are the following three points: first, the research on agriculture changes of elements as the logical starting point to analyze China's agricultural technological progress bias and agricultural economic growth, for more in-depth analysis of the problem from the source. Most existing studies mainly focus on the impact of a change in a single factor, influence the relative change of different types of agricultural factors ignored possible on agricultural technological progress bias and economic growth is more profound. Compared with similar research, the logical starting point of this study may be more close to the objective facts of agricultural factors change in our country. For the analysis of issues related to more accurate. Second, on China's provincial level agricultural TFP index using the extended DEA-Malmquis index metric decomposition method The bias of technological progress are analyzed. The research progress of agricultural technology, agricultural technology progress only a few studies related to the two elements, the bias, but also did not consider the differences may exist among provinces. This paper is to contain elements of agricultural technology progress of land, capital and labor three elements under the bias of the measure, and analyzed the spatial and temporal variation characteristics, compared with the previous studies, this research contributes to the progress of agricultural technology in China tend to form a more comprehensive understanding. Third, the existing research in the analysis of the factors affecting the growth of agricultural economy, is emphasized inputs or the contribution of technological progress, technical progress bias did not examine the effect possible. This study use the TFP growth rate of the Solow residual measure index decomposition method, the influence of Agriculture The factor of total factor productivity growth is divided into factor efficiency growth effect, technological progress bias effect and technological progress bias and the comprehensive effect of factor endowments, and related data is used for empirical analysis, to a certain extent, to make up for the shortcomings of existing research.

【學(xué)位授予單位】：華中農(nóng)業(yè)大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：博士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2016
【分類(lèi)號(hào)】：F224;F323
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本文編號(hào)：1360651