本文關(guān)鍵詞：基于市場主體的中國房地產(chǎn)金融風(fēng)險處置研究　出處：《中國社會科學(xué)院研究生院》2017年博士論文　論文類型：學(xué)位論文

  更多相關(guān)文章： 風(fēng)險處置 房地產(chǎn)金融 市場主體

【摘要】：從傳統(tǒng)金融理論來看,市場參與主體通過對收益的理性預(yù)期、對風(fēng)險的最大化回避以及根據(jù)影響因素來抉擇行為,但是隨著經(jīng)濟(jì)和市場形勢的快速發(fā)展,傳統(tǒng)金融理論的假設(shè)已無法全面解釋在風(fēng)險因素復(fù)雜化和多元化情況下的國內(nèi)房地產(chǎn)金融市場。通過研究發(fā)現(xiàn),國內(nèi)房地產(chǎn)金融市場除了土地供給不足與剛性需求旺盛之間的供需矛盾、貨幣超發(fā)和利率走低推升的房價收入比問題、房地產(chǎn)市場火熱加劇了政府債務(wù)對土地財政的依賴、經(jīng)濟(jì)的區(qū)域差異化而引發(fā)的去庫存壓力問題以外,還體現(xiàn)出在房企、政府、金融機(jī)構(gòu)和投資者等四個主要的市場參與因素在追求超額收益的非理性行為下,對于房地產(chǎn)金融市場的過度狂熱和市場風(fēng)險認(rèn)識不足的主觀能動性問題。由于對房地產(chǎn)金融風(fēng)險的市場參與者因素缺少的理論探討,使得目前對于房地產(chǎn)金融風(fēng)險的處置策略較為零散,不利于形成切實有效的風(fēng)險處置策略。面對當(dāng)前日漸復(fù)雜的經(jīng)濟(jì)金融形勢,本論文的研究目標(biāo)是:通過系統(tǒng)性金融風(fēng)險、周期性泡沫在金融與實體經(jīng)濟(jì)互動的效用,以及運用行為金融學(xué)的視角對金融風(fēng)險和房地產(chǎn)金融進(jìn)行分析,梳理國內(nèi)房地產(chǎn)金融市場發(fā)展?fàn)顩r,識別當(dāng)前國內(nèi)房地產(chǎn)金融風(fēng)險的主要特征,建立一套從政府、房企、金融機(jī)構(gòu)、投資者等四個房地產(chǎn)金融市場參與主體角度的房地產(chǎn)金融風(fēng)險識別體系,通過對國內(nèi)J房企債務(wù)危機(jī)化解的實證分析,日本、香港、美國等重大房地產(chǎn)金融風(fēng)險處置的比較分析,建立適合當(dāng)前國內(nèi)房地產(chǎn)金融市場發(fā)展?fàn)顟B(tài)的風(fēng)險識別和風(fēng)險處置模型,基于維護(hù)社會和金融秩序穩(wěn)定、市場化原則、依法處置、防止風(fēng)險擴(kuò)散、以“時間換空間”同時兼顧利益相關(guān)方的處置原則,構(gòu)建包含市場主體獨立處置風(fēng)險、政府干預(yù)下處置風(fēng)險和匹配風(fēng)險階段的綜合處置策略,并對未來房地產(chǎn)金融風(fēng)險提出防控建議,旨在對房企與金融兩個行業(yè)的穩(wěn)定向好發(fā)展起到積極的推動作用。本研究的主要內(nèi)容包括導(dǎo)論、我國房地產(chǎn)金融風(fēng)險分析的理論背景、我國房地產(chǎn)金融市場的現(xiàn)狀、我國房地產(chǎn)金融風(fēng)險、我國房地產(chǎn)金融的風(fēng)險識別、房地產(chǎn)金融風(fēng)險的國內(nèi)處置實例分析、房地產(chǎn)金融風(fēng)險的國際處置的借鑒與啟示、房地產(chǎn)金融風(fēng)險處置的對策建議、研究結(jié)論與建議等部分。第一章提出本研究的背景,研究意義,研究目標(biāo)和內(nèi)容。從關(guān)注經(jīng)濟(jì)轉(zhuǎn)型升級期內(nèi)房地產(chǎn)行業(yè)變局帶來的金融風(fēng)險,追尋世界范圍內(nèi)知名房地產(chǎn)金融風(fēng)險處置依據(jù),重視房地產(chǎn)金融風(fēng)險的社會性和擴(kuò)張性等三個角度出發(fā)開展對中國房地產(chǎn)金融風(fēng)險的處置研究。由此引出本論文的研究目標(biāo)就是通過梳理國內(nèi)房地產(chǎn)金融市場發(fā)展?fàn)顩r,識別當(dāng)前國內(nèi)房地產(chǎn)金融風(fēng)險的主要特征,建立包含政府、房企、金融機(jī)構(gòu)、投資者等四個房地產(chǎn)金融市場參與主體的房地產(chǎn)金融風(fēng)險識別體系,以及具有評估價值的風(fēng)險識別模型。通過對國內(nèi)j房企債務(wù)危機(jī)化解,日本、香港、美國等重大房地產(chǎn)金融風(fēng)險處置的回顧,建立適合當(dāng)前國內(nèi)房地產(chǎn)金融市場發(fā)展?fàn)顟B(tài),包含市場主體獨立處置風(fēng)險、政府干預(yù)下處置風(fēng)險和匹配風(fēng)險階段的綜合處置策略,并對未來房地產(chǎn)金融風(fēng)險提出防控建議。第二章是對國內(nèi)房地產(chǎn)金融風(fēng)險處置的研究綜述。在傳統(tǒng)的金融理論中,系統(tǒng)性金融風(fēng)險是引發(fā)金融不穩(wěn)定性的主要原因,傳統(tǒng)金融理論認(rèn)為系統(tǒng)性金融風(fēng)險的主要產(chǎn)生機(jī)制是貨幣發(fā)行、信用擴(kuò)張與利率調(diào)整等三個因素相互互動的外部作用的宏觀經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)機(jī)制,但是較少探索市場參與者效用的內(nèi)部根本因素。國內(nèi)外學(xué)術(shù)界對房地產(chǎn)金融風(fēng)險的生成、識別、預(yù)警和防范等關(guān)注較多,但對于房地產(chǎn)金融風(fēng)險的處置,尤其是綜合處置策略研究較少。處置方式上更多的是關(guān)注政府通過財政政策、貨幣政策、行政手段等方式進(jìn)行風(fēng)險的化解,以及金融機(jī)構(gòu)通過金融產(chǎn)品創(chuàng)新對風(fēng)險的轉(zhuǎn)移和分散,對其它參與方的處置策略研究不多,對涉及到房企、金融機(jī)構(gòu)、投資者三個市場主體的參與作用的研究較少。由于金融資源信息不對稱,從而產(chǎn)生時間和空間上的錯配,進(jìn)而導(dǎo)致了周期性泡沫的產(chǎn)生。在周期性泡沫過程中,金融資本與實體經(jīng)濟(jì)通過擠出效應(yīng)、替代效應(yīng)、排斥效應(yīng)和杠桿效應(yīng)等四種方式互動,不斷催生金融風(fēng)險。傳統(tǒng)金融研究中對于理性人的假設(shè)與當(dāng)下經(jīng)濟(jì)現(xiàn)實間的偏差,對于房地產(chǎn)金融市場四因素主體對市場發(fā)展趨勢的影響作用的忽略,使筆者發(fā)現(xiàn)通過引入行為金融學(xué)的理論體系來分析房地產(chǎn)金融風(fēng)險的必要性。從心理因素干預(yù)投資導(dǎo)致的行為偏差,噪聲交易理論、羊群效應(yīng),以及政府對市場的干預(yù)等角度來分析房地產(chǎn)金融市場的發(fā)展,得出應(yīng)遵循從市場參與者角度開展風(fēng)險成因分析,建立一套基于市場參與者主體的行為特質(zhì)的分析體系,開展國內(nèi)房地產(chǎn)金融市場的風(fēng)險因素識別。第三章回顧國內(nèi)房地產(chǎn)行業(yè)發(fā)展的八個階段,進(jìn)而分析國內(nèi)房地產(chǎn)市場對經(jīng)濟(jì)的帶動性、增長貢獻(xiàn)、成長性等特點,國內(nèi)房地產(chǎn)行業(yè)正從以增量為主的時代向以存量為主的時代進(jìn)行變化,優(yōu)質(zhì)房地產(chǎn)企業(yè)的經(jīng)營前景持續(xù)向好的發(fā)展特征。然后,對國內(nèi)房地產(chǎn)金融發(fā)展的環(huán)境因素進(jìn)行分析,認(rèn)為房地產(chǎn)行業(yè)的發(fā)展是政策環(huán)境、經(jīng)濟(jì)環(huán)境、社會環(huán)境和經(jīng)營環(huán)境共同作用的結(jié)果。研究指出,國家宏觀調(diào)控政策是作用于房地產(chǎn)行業(yè)的最主要因素,經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展周期與房地產(chǎn)市場發(fā)展關(guān)聯(lián)密切,房地產(chǎn)市場價格長期受到土地價格的影響且相互作用,房地產(chǎn)價格與貨幣供應(yīng)量和國內(nèi)生產(chǎn)總值gdp正向關(guān)系,與物價水平、利率負(fù)向相關(guān)關(guān)系,房地產(chǎn)行業(yè)發(fā)展還受城鎮(zhèn)化進(jìn)程推動,為下一步探尋房地產(chǎn)金融風(fēng)險的因素分析和處置策略做好研究支持。第四章分析我國房地產(chǎn)金融風(fēng)險的主要特征。主要對多方加杠桿帶來的金融泡沫所加劇的房地產(chǎn)金融風(fēng)險,政府債務(wù)過度依賴土地財政帶來的債務(wù)風(fēng)險,房價收入比以及房地產(chǎn)庫存在區(qū)域間的分化帶來部分地區(qū)的去庫存壓力,由于地產(chǎn)市場信息不對稱所導(dǎo)致的資源分配不均勻和錯配等風(fēng)險特征進(jìn)行分析。研究指出,房企開發(fā)資金余額增加、資產(chǎn)負(fù)債率逐年走高,而流動比率不斷走低的市場表現(xiàn),反映出近年來房企的融資杠桿逐漸放大,不斷侵蝕企業(yè)的經(jīng)濟(jì)效益。金融機(jī)構(gòu)對房地產(chǎn)行業(yè)的過度依賴,居民杠桿快速上升都進(jìn)一步加大了金融風(fēng)險失控的可能性。與此同時,政府的土地供給落后于市場需求,土地價格隨著房價上漲而不斷上漲,也加劇了政府對土地財政的依賴,使房地產(chǎn)市場的過熱發(fā)展成為地方政府債務(wù)風(fēng)險顯現(xiàn)的重要領(lǐng)域。盡管全國的房價收入比在二三線城市持續(xù)降低的帶動下,呈現(xiàn)走低的態(tài)勢,但是,三四線中小城市依舊面臨巨大的去庫存壓力。同時,一二線城市不斷走高的房價,使得居民的購買力不斷下降,房地產(chǎn)市場的需求端日漸萎縮。另外,房地產(chǎn)金融市場內(nèi)房企、政府、金融機(jī)構(gòu)與投資者等多方的信息不對稱造成了資源錯配,進(jìn)一步提高了房地產(chǎn)金融風(fēng)險發(fā)生的概率,金融風(fēng)險防范與控制面臨前所未有的壓力。第五章全面開展我國房地產(chǎn)金融的風(fēng)險識別研究。研究指出房地產(chǎn)金融市場由房企、政府、金融機(jī)構(gòu)及投資者共同參與,相互影響。在一個公開的、與外界密切聯(lián)系的房地產(chǎn)金融市場機(jī)制下,房地產(chǎn)金融風(fēng)險的主要成因涵蓋了各個參與對象,政府、房地產(chǎn)企業(yè)、金融機(jī)構(gòu)及投資者。進(jìn)而開展了對四因素理論的有效性實證分析,通過spss軟件,對涵蓋政府層面、金融機(jī)構(gòu)層面、房企層面以及個人投資者層面等四個層面的9個風(fēng)險因素進(jìn)行綜合分析,與國房景氣指數(shù)進(jìn)行對比后發(fā)現(xiàn),模型分析結(jié)果與國房景氣指數(shù)吻合度較高,由此印證四因素分析理論的實證價值。通過研究表明,政府、房企、金融機(jī)構(gòu)和投資者等作為四個主要因素,參與房地產(chǎn)金融市場,并成為房地產(chǎn)金融風(fēng)險的主要來源。房地產(chǎn)金融風(fēng)險四因素分析是研究房地產(chǎn)金融風(fēng)險成因的重要出發(fā)點,也是擬訂房地產(chǎn)金融風(fēng)險處置策略的重要手段之一。同時,本章還通過四因素理論對國內(nèi)房地產(chǎn)金融風(fēng)險進(jìn)行識別研究,指出國家的宏觀政策調(diào)控可以有效控制全國性房地產(chǎn)金融風(fēng)險,但土地財政將地方政府和房地產(chǎn)市場捆綁,而房地產(chǎn)市場表現(xiàn)的區(qū)域分化,又影響到地方政府的收入來源,使得區(qū)域性房地產(chǎn)金融風(fēng)險的發(fā)生概率在增加,并引用四因素模型對六個不同城市的風(fēng)險水平進(jìn)行驗證。由于區(qū)域性以上規(guī)模房企在不同城市間的項目布局失誤和滯銷,增大了房企的破產(chǎn)風(fēng)險并有可能成為新時期房地產(chǎn)金融風(fēng)險的重要爆發(fā)點。限購限貸政策下的嚴(yán)格管控,在考驗著房企的經(jīng)營能力,過度融資和利潤下滑帶來的財務(wù)壓力,使得房企債務(wù)風(fēng)險極易在境內(nèi)外傳播。金融機(jī)構(gòu)對于房地產(chǎn)金融產(chǎn)品的過度加杠桿,將成為風(fēng)險傳播的加速器。投資者在房地產(chǎn)金融產(chǎn)品上的過度投資,也可能成為風(fēng)險散布的重要因素。通過研究表明,鑒于中國房地產(chǎn)金融問題的復(fù)雜性,化解風(fēng)險需要建立一套從政府、房企、金融機(jī)構(gòu)和投資者四個角度共同作用的房地產(chǎn)金融風(fēng)險綜合處置體系。第六章國內(nèi)j房企的金融風(fēng)險處置實例研究�；仡檪鶆�(wù)危機(jī)的背景和債務(wù)情況。從企業(yè)的經(jīng)營風(fēng)險,連鎖反應(yīng)風(fēng)險,社會穩(wěn)定風(fēng)險,市場恐慌風(fēng)險,金融穩(wěn)定風(fēng)險角度分析風(fēng)險的危害性。結(jié)合風(fēng)險情況,從協(xié)同處置,政府參與,因時施策角度思考處置策略。然后從房企收縮戰(zhàn)線,出售欠發(fā)達(dá)地區(qū)儲備項目,積極維護(hù)政府關(guān)系,項目恢復(fù)銷售以重獲現(xiàn)金流,加強(qiáng)與金融機(jī)構(gòu)溝通并延展債務(wù)等角度開展自救;金融機(jī)構(gòu)在合理評估企業(yè)價值基礎(chǔ)上,通過訴前保全,控制損失,成立債委會統(tǒng)一步調(diào),加強(qiáng)與監(jiān)管機(jī)構(gòu)溝通贏得理解和支持,細(xì)化研究資產(chǎn)及項目情況,積極保護(hù)中小投資者角度進(jìn)行風(fēng)險處置;政府采取積極引導(dǎo)金融機(jī)構(gòu)和全力支持房企,同時投資者理性維權(quán),給予處置的時間和空間等策略,共同化解了j房企的債務(wù)危機(jī),實現(xiàn)了共贏。通過對j房企債務(wù)危機(jī)處置案例的實證分析,提出對債務(wù)危機(jī)成因的思考,指出企業(yè)隱性債務(wù)是形成融資泡沫的根源,政府鎖盤是刺破泡沫的誘因,金融機(jī)構(gòu)的表外借款是泡沫的放大器,投資者的不理性行為將推動危機(jī)蔓延。同時分析j房企債務(wù)危機(jī)的案例典型性,進(jìn)一步得出國內(nèi)房地產(chǎn)金融風(fēng)險處置上的自覺擔(dān)當(dāng)社會責(zé)任,處置過程應(yīng)符合法律要求,形成風(fēng)險共擔(dān)機(jī)制,防范風(fēng)險蔓延,“以時間換空間”的經(jīng)驗。第七章開展房地產(chǎn)金融風(fēng)險處置的中外借鑒與啟示分析。通過對日本1991年房地產(chǎn)泡沫、香港1997年樓市崩盤、美國2008年次貸危機(jī)等三次全球范圍內(nèi)重要的房地產(chǎn)金融風(fēng)險的危機(jī)背景、危機(jī)前市場四因素的行為表現(xiàn)、危機(jī)爆發(fā)后導(dǎo)致的社會經(jīng)濟(jì)問題等進(jìn)行分析,研究三次國際范圍內(nèi)的房地產(chǎn)金融風(fēng)險的共性特點,進(jìn)而歸納出三次金融風(fēng)險爆發(fā)前市場參與各方的表現(xiàn)、風(fēng)險爆發(fā)后的處置措施。通過分析得出日本處置策略中政府強(qiáng)硬干預(yù)市場、香港處置策略中對投資者的保護(hù)不足、美國處置策略中將風(fēng)險轉(zhuǎn)移至全球市場等問題,對于房地產(chǎn)金融風(fēng)險的處置都帶來了不利影響,需要在下一階段的房地產(chǎn)金融風(fēng)險的處置過程中加以避免。第八章提出房地產(chǎn)金融風(fēng)險處置策略。結(jié)合前述研究,在明確維護(hù)社會和金融秩序穩(wěn)定原則、市場化原則、依法處置原則、防止風(fēng)險擴(kuò)散原則、兼顧利益相關(guān)方原則的國內(nèi)房地產(chǎn)金融風(fēng)險處置的基本原則基礎(chǔ)上,提出金融機(jī)構(gòu)審慎控制風(fēng)險傳播、房企強(qiáng)化自身經(jīng)營能力、投資者主動規(guī)避風(fēng)險的市場主體獨立處置的風(fēng)險策略,提出政府主導(dǎo)下的風(fēng)險處置策略,然后進(jìn)一步探討在時空縱向發(fā)展過程中匹配風(fēng)險不同階段的綜合處置策略,構(gòu)建縱橫交錯的多元化房地產(chǎn)金融風(fēng)險處置方案。同時同時對未來房地產(chǎn)金融風(fēng)險防控的長效機(jī)制提出建議,包括推動政府指導(dǎo)下的房地產(chǎn)金融市場改革,建立宏觀數(shù)據(jù)與區(qū)域數(shù)據(jù)相結(jié)合的監(jiān)測體系,鞏固政府監(jiān)管體系,繼續(xù)開展中央政府和地方政府的調(diào)控管理,強(qiáng)化監(jiān)管機(jī)構(gòu)的監(jiān)督管理,完善金融機(jī)構(gòu)的自律管理,鼓勵建立房企穩(wěn)健發(fā)展與投資者風(fēng)險識別相結(jié)合的市場體系,從多方面加強(qiáng)金融風(fēng)險防控。第九章對上述研究進(jìn)行總結(jié),指出在具有中國特色的房地產(chǎn)金融環(huán)境下,房地產(chǎn)金融風(fēng)險在不斷累積,如果風(fēng)險爆發(fā)將引致更為嚴(yán)重的社會問題,因此對于風(fēng)險的理論探討和實踐總結(jié)值得重視。政府、房企、金融機(jī)構(gòu)和投資者既是房地產(chǎn)金融風(fēng)險的來源,也是處置風(fēng)險的參與要素。得出中國房地產(chǎn)金融風(fēng)險處置需遵循的五個原則,維護(hù)社會和金融秩序穩(wěn)定原則,市場化原則,依法處置原則,防止風(fēng)險擴(kuò)散原則,兼顧利益相關(guān)方原則等五個基本原則。房地產(chǎn)金融風(fēng)險的處置需要根據(jù)風(fēng)險在不同階段的特點,采用不同的化解方法,建立從政府、房企、金融機(jī)構(gòu)和投資者四個角度共同作用,包含市場主體獨立處置,政府主導(dǎo)下的房地產(chǎn)金融風(fēng)險處置,匹配風(fēng)險階段的綜合化處置等三種不同層次的房地產(chǎn)金融風(fēng)險綜合處置體系。在研究過程中存在的量化分析不足,處置策略細(xì)化程度不夠等問題,也將是筆者的下一步研究方向。
[Abstract]:From the traditional financial theory, market participants through rational expectation of profit maximization, to evade the risk, according to the influence factors of choice behavior, but with the rapid development of economy and the market situation, the traditional financial theory cannot fully explain the assumptions have been at risk factors of complicated and diversified situation of the domestic real estate finance the market. Through the study found that the domestic real estate financial market in addition to the contradiction between supply and demand of land supply shortage and rigid demand between the super currency and low interest rates push up the price to income ratio, the real estate market fiery government debt exacerbated the financial dependence on land, regional differences in economic and lead to pressure on the stock the problem, also reflected in housing prices, government, financial institutions and investors such as the four main market participation factors in the non rational behavior of the pursuit of excess returns Next, for the real estate financial market and market risk awareness of the problem over enthusiastic initiative. Because of the lack of lack of financial risks of the real estate market participants factors theory, makes the real estate financial risk disposal strategies are scattered, risk disposal strategy is disadvantageous to form effective in the face of the increasingly complex. The economic and financial situation, the research object of this paper is: through the systemic financial risk, utility of periodic bubbles in financial and real economic interaction, and the use of behavioral finance from the perspective of financial risks and real estate financial analysis, the development situation of combing the domestic real estate financial market, the main features of the current domestic real estate financial risk identification the establishment of a set from the government, enterprises, financial institutions, investors and other four real estate financial market participants in the perspective of real estate finance Risk identification system, through empirical research to resolve the debt crisis of the domestic housing prices J, Japan, Hongkong, the United States and other major comparative analysis of real estate financial risk management, establish the risk identification and risk disposal model suitable for the current development status of the domestic real estate financial market, and maintain social stability of the financial system based on market principles, dispose of according to law and prevent the spread of risk, to "time for space" while taking into account the principles of dealing with stakeholders, including construction market main body independent risk disposal, disposal and disposal strategies, risk risk stage of government intervention, and to put forward suggestions for future prevention and control of the real estate finance risk to housing prices and financial sectors in the two stable to play an active role in promoting development. The main content of this study includes introduction, theoretical background analysis of financial risk of real estate in China, China's real estate The status quo of the financial market, the financial risk of real estate in China, China's real estate financial risk identification, analysis of the domestic real estate financial risk disposal examples, reference and Enlightenment of the international management of real estate finance risk and Countermeasures of real estate financial risk disposal, conclusions and suggestions are put forward in this part. The first chapter the research background, research significance, research objectives and content. From the change of the real estate industry upgrade period financial risk caused by the transformation of the economy, in pursuit of world renowned real estate financial risk disposal based on the importance of real estate financial risk society and expansion of the three aspects to carry out the disposal of real estate research on Chinese financial risk. This raises the research goal is through the development of domestic real estate financial market, the current domestic real estate financial risk identification of the main features, construction Set includes the government, enterprises, financial institutions, investors and other four real estate financial market participants in real estate financial risk identification and risk identification system, is to assess the value of the model. By solving the debt crisis, the domestic J enterprises in Japan, Hongkong, the United States and other major review of real estate financial risk management, establish suitable for the current development the state of the domestic real estate financial market, including the market main body independent disposal of risk, comprehensive treatment strategies under the government intervention, risk and risk disposal stage, and puts forward suggestions for future prevention and control of financial risks of real estate. The second chapter is the summary of the research on the domestic real estate financial risk disposal. In the traditional financial theory, systemic financial risk is the main cause of financial instability, the traditional financial theory that the main mechanism of systemic financial risk is the currency, credit expansion and The role of the interest rate adjustment mechanism of external macro economics three factors interact, but internal fundamental factors to explore market participants less utility. The academic circles at home and abroad on the real estate financial risk formation, identification, early warning and prevention of more concern, but for the real estate financial risk disposal, especially comprehensive disposal strategy less. The disposal of the way is more concerned about the government through fiscal policy, monetary policy, to resolve administrative means such as the risk, and financial institutions through financial product innovation for risk transfer and dispersion, the other parties involved in strategy research is not much, to the housing, to the financial institutions involved in research, in three the main body of the market investors less. Because of asymmetric information of financial resources, resulting in time and space mismatch, resulting in periodic bubbles generated in. Periodic bubbles in the process of financial capital and the real economy through crowding out effect, substitution effect, mutual exclusion effect and leverage effect in four ways, and constantly create financial risks. The deviation for rational person hypothesis and the economic reality of the traditional financial research, ignoring the real estate financial market for the main effects of the four factors on the development of the market the role of the trend, the author found that the necessity of theoretical system through the introduction of behavioral finance to analyze the financial risks of real estate. From a psychological intervention bias investment led, herding, and noise trading theory, the development of government intervention in the market in terms of the analysis of the real estate financial market, it should follow from market participants to carry out analysis of the risk factors, establish a system based on the analysis of market participants behavior characteristics, to carry out domestic real estate financial market Risk factors identification field. The third chapter reviews the eight stages of the development of the domestic real estate industry, and then analyzes the drive, the domestic real estate market on economic growth contribution, characteristics of growth, the domestic real estate industry is mainly from the incremental time to take stock of the main age changes, characteristics of the development of quality housing the real estate business outlook continues to improve. Then, for environmental factors on the development of the domestic real estate finance analysis, that the development of the real estate industry policy environment, economic environment, social environment and business environment interaction results. The study pointed out that the national macro-control policy is the main factor in the real estate industry. The development of related development cycle and the real estate market economy closely, the real estate market prices are influenced by long-term land prices and the interaction between real estate prices and money supply and domestic GDP positive relationship between GDP and price level, interest rate, negative correlation between the development of the real estate industry is also affected by the process of urbanization to promote, do research support for the next step to explore the factors of the real estate financial risk and disposal strategy. The main features of the fourth chapter is the analysis of China's real estate financial risk. The financial risk of real estate mainly to the multi plus leverage to bring financial bubbles rising government debt, excessive dependence on land revenue caused by the debt risk, price earnings ratio and real estate inventory differentiation between regions in some areas to bring pressure on the stock, because the resource allocation of information asymmetry caused by the real estate market is not uniform and the mismatch risk characteristics analysis. The study pointed out that the development of housing prices increase the balance of the funds, asset liability ratio increased year by year, the market performance and liquidity ratio continued to decline, reflecting the financing of housing prices in recent years. Bar gradually enlarged, eroding the economic efficiency of enterprises. Financial institutions over reliance on the real estate industry, the residents of the leverage rapid rise to further increase the possibility of financial risk control. At the same time, the government's land supply lags behind the market demand, rising land prices as prices rise, also increased the government reliance on land finance so, the overheated real estate market development has become an important field of local government debt risk. Although the price earnings ratio in the two or three line of the city continue to reduce the lead, present the trend, but the decline, small and medium-sized city three or four line still faces huge pressure on the stock. At the same time, a second tier city continued high prices so, the purchasing power of residents continued to decline, the real estate market demand is shrinking. In addition, the financial market of real estate housing prices, government, financial institutions and investment The multi information asymmetry caused a mismatch of resources, to further improve the probability of real estate financial risk, financial risk prevention and control faced with hitherto unknown pressure. The fifth chapter comprehensively carry out research on the risk identification of real estate finance in China. The research points out that the real estate financial market by the housing prices, government, financial institutions and investors participate in and influence each other. In an open and close contact with the external market mechanism of real estate finance, the main causes of financial risks of real estate covering all subjects, government, real estate enterprises, financial institutions and investors. Then we carried out an empirical analysis on the effectiveness of the four factor theory, by SPSS software. To cover the government level, the level of financial institutions, the 9 risk factors of four levels of housing prices level of individual investors and the level of comprehensive analysis, with the national housing climate index After comparison, the model analysis results and the state of the housing boom index higher degree of agreement, which confirms the four factors empirical analysis of value theory. The research shows that the government, enterprises, financial institutions and investors such as the four main factors in the financial market of real estate, and become the main source for the financial risks of real estate real estate. The financial risk analysis of four factors is an important starting point for research on real estate financial risk causes, and is also an important means for the real estate financial risk disposal strategy. At the same time, this chapter also through four factor theory on domestic real estate financial risk identification research, pointed out that the national policy control can effectively control the national real estate finance the risk, but the local government land finance and real estate market bound, and the performance of the real estate market of the regional differentiation, but also affect the local government revenue sources, making the region The probability of occurrence of domain of real estate financial risk has increased, and cited the risk level of the four factor model in six different city to verify. Because of the regional scale housing prices in the city between the different project layout errors and slow-moving, increases the risk of bankruptcy of the outbreak of housing prices and is likely to become the new era of real estate finance risk. The purchase limit credit policy under strict control, in a test of housing prices in the business capacity, excessive financing and profit decline caused by financial pressures, making housing prices vulnerable to debt risk in China spread. Financial institutions for real estate financial products without excessive leverage, the risk will become the spread of investors over investment accelerator. In the real estate financial products, may also become an important factor in the risk spread. The research shows that the complexity of the Chinese real estate financial problems, resolve risks need to establish A joint action from the government, enterprises, financial institutions and investors four aspects of the real estate financial risk disposal system. Research on financial risk disposal examples in Chapter sixth. The background and the domestic housing prices J debt review debt crisis. From the management risk of the enterprise, the chain reaction of risk, the risk of social stability, the market panic risk analysis of the risk of harm, risk of financial stability. With the risk, from the collaborative disposal, government participation, when applied to policy perspective strategy. Then the contraction front from the sale of housing prices, underdeveloped areas reserve projects, actively safeguard government relations, project sales to recover

【學(xué)位授予單位】：中國社會科學(xué)院研究生院
【學(xué)位級別】：博士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2017
【分類號】：F299.23;F832
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本文編號：1360568