【摘要】：概率的表征方式對(duì)人類(lèi)生活有重要影響。人類(lèi)生活在充滿(mǎn)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)的世界中。個(gè)人、政府、醫(yī)院和其它多方之間都有溝通風(fēng)險(xiǎn)的必要。溝通中重要的一環(huán),就是傳達(dá)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)發(fā)生的概率這一數(shù)字信息。而研究發(fā)現(xiàn),相同的概率信息用不同的方式表征出來(lái),產(chǎn)生的效果也不相同。本文以前人研究為基礎(chǔ),探討在風(fēng)險(xiǎn)概率條件下,同一性質(zhì)的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)事件的圖文表征方式對(duì)人類(lèi)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)規(guī)避的影響。本文采用前人的“愿付價(jià)格”研究范式,把對(duì)產(chǎn)品的愿付定價(jià)作為個(gè)體風(fēng)險(xiǎn)規(guī)避程度的指標(biāo),對(duì)以下幾個(gè)科學(xué)問(wèn)題進(jìn)行探討：1.小風(fēng)險(xiǎn)概率下,圖文表征方式對(duì)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)規(guī)避的影響。2.大風(fēng)險(xiǎn)概率下,圖文表征對(duì)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)規(guī)避的影響。3.從小風(fēng)險(xiǎn)概率到大風(fēng)險(xiǎn)概率,圖文表征引起風(fēng)險(xiǎn)規(guī)避的變化趨勢(shì)。4.風(fēng)險(xiǎn)信息圖形表征的加工方式研究。實(shí)驗(yàn)1采用了30/5000和15/5000的小風(fēng)險(xiǎn)概率,來(lái)表示標(biāo)準(zhǔn)牙膏和改良牙膏引起牙齦問(wèn)題的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)。用餅圖、文字和餅圖配數(shù)字三種方式呈現(xiàn)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)信息。結(jié)果發(fā)現(xiàn),餅圖條件下參與者愿意支付改良牙膏的價(jià)格最低。其它兩種情況下無(wú)顯著差異。這表明小概率條件下,餅圖表征條件下的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)規(guī)避顯著小于文字和餅圖配數(shù)字兩種表征方式的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)規(guī)避。實(shí)驗(yàn)2采用了3000/5000和1500/5000的大風(fēng)險(xiǎn)概率,來(lái)表示標(biāo)準(zhǔn)牙膏和改良牙膏引起牙齦問(wèn)題的風(fēng)險(xiǎn),以探討三種表征條件下的愿付價(jià)格情況。結(jié)果發(fā)現(xiàn),餅圖條件下參與者愿意給改良牙膏的價(jià)格最高。其它兩種情況下無(wú)顯著差異。這表明大風(fēng)險(xiǎn)概率條件下,餅圖表征條件下的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)規(guī)避顯著大于文字和餅圖配數(shù)字兩種表征方式的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)規(guī)避。實(shí)驗(yàn)3對(duì)19種概率條件下圖文表征方式對(duì)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)規(guī)避的影響進(jìn)行探討。結(jié)果發(fā)現(xiàn),在1%的概率差值條件下,餅圖表征引起的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)規(guī)避顯著小于文字表征；在3%～18%的概率差值條件下,餅圖表征與文字表征無(wú)顯著差異；而概率差值增加到27%及更大時(shí),餅圖表征引起的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)規(guī)避穩(wěn)定大于文字表征。實(shí)驗(yàn)4引導(dǎo)參與者用逐字加工方式對(duì)圖形信息進(jìn)行加工。結(jié)果發(fā)現(xiàn)參與者對(duì)于餅圖信息的估計(jì)準(zhǔn)確度與文字呈現(xiàn)無(wú)差異。特別重要的是,這種加工方式下的餅圖表征引起的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)規(guī)避在低、中、高三種概率水平下都與文字表征引起的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)規(guī)避無(wú)顯著差異�？傊�,本研究發(fā)現(xiàn)：(1)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)信息的圖文表征方式會(huì)影響決策中的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)規(guī)避。(2)小概率條件下,圖形表征方式引起的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)規(guī)避顯著小于文字表征方式。(3)大概率條件下,圖形表征引起的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)規(guī)避顯著大于文字表征形式。(4)改變圖形表征的加工方式能調(diào)制風(fēng)險(xiǎn)規(guī)避。這些結(jié)果表明,圖形表征方式和信息加工方式都會(huì)影響決策中的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)規(guī)避。
[Abstract]:The representation of probability has an important influence on human life. Man lives in a world full of risks. Individuals, governments, hospitals, and others all need to communicate with each other at risk. An important part of communication is to convey the digital message of the probability of risk. The study found that the same probability information is represented in different ways, and the effect is different. Based on previous studies, this paper discusses the influence of the graph-text representation of the same nature of risk events on human risk aversion under the condition of risk probability. In this paper, by using the previous paradigm of "willing to pay", this paper takes the willing price of product as the index of individual risk aversion, and probes into the following scientific problems: 1. Under small risk probability, the effect of graphic representation on risk aversion. 2. Under high risk probability, the influence of graph and text representation on risk aversion. 3. From small risk probability to large risk probability, the change trend of risk aversion caused by graph and text. 4. 4. A study on the processing methods of graphical representation of risk Information. Experiment 1 used a low risk probability of 30 / 5, 000 and 15 / 5, 000 to indicate the risk of gingival problems caused by standard toothpaste and improved toothpaste. Use pie chart, text and pie chart with the number of three ways to present risk information. The results showed that participants were willing to pay the lowest price for improved toothpaste under pie chart conditions. There was no significant difference between the other two conditions. This shows that the risk aversion under the condition of small probability is significantly less than that of the two representation ways of character and pie figure. In experiment 2, the risk of gingival problems caused by standard toothpaste and modified toothpaste was expressed by using the high risk probability of 3000 / 5000 and 1500 / 5000 respectively. The results showed that participants were willing to pay the highest price for improved toothpaste under pie chart conditions. There was no significant difference between the other two conditions. This shows that under the condition of large risk probability, the risk aversion under the representation of pie chart is significantly larger than that under the representation of character and number of pie graph. In experiment 3, the effects of graphic representation on risk aversion under 19 probabilistic conditions were discussed. The results showed that under the condition of 1% probability difference, the risk aversion caused by pie chart representation was significantly less than that by character representation, but there was no significant difference between pie chart representation and character representation under the condition of probability difference of 3% or 18%. When the probability difference is increased to 27% or more, the risk avoidance caused by pie chart representation is more stable than that by literal representation. Experiment 4 leads participants to process graphic information verbatim. The results showed that there was no difference between the accuracy of the pie chart information and the text. It is particularly important that the risk aversion caused by the pie chart representation in this processing mode is not significantly different from that caused by literal representation at the low, middle and high probability levels. In a word, this study finds that: (1) risk information representation will affect risk aversion in decision making. (2) under small probability, the risk aversion caused by graphic representation is significantly smaller than that caused by literal representation. (3) under the condition of large probability, the risk aversion caused by graphic representation is significantly lower than that by word representation. The risk aversion caused by graphic representation is significantly greater than that by literal representation. (4) changing the processing mode of graphic representation can modulate risk aversion. These results show that both graphical representation and information processing will affect risk avoidance in decision-making.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：浙江師范大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2016
【分類(lèi)號(hào)】：B842

【相似文獻(xiàn)】

相關(guān)重要報(bào)紙文章 前1條

1 中國(guó)財(cái)政經(jīng)濟(jì)出版社 楊靜;希臘無(wú)序違約風(fēng)險(xiǎn)概率放大[N];第一財(cái)經(jīng)日?qǐng)?bào);2012年

相關(guān)碩士學(xué)位論文 前2條

1 劉賦樊;概率信息的圖文表征對(duì)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)規(guī)避的影響[D];浙江師范大學(xué);2016年

2 馮曉蕾;起重機(jī)大車(chē)運(yùn)行機(jī)構(gòu)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)概率經(jīng)濟(jì)性安全評(píng)價(jià)[D];太原科技大學(xué);2010年

，

本文編號(hào)：2235156