【摘要】：規(guī)劃謬誤(planning fallacy)是指人們在估計未來任務的完成時間時,傾向于過度樂觀,低估任務完成時間的一種現(xiàn)象。該現(xiàn)象普遍存在并且對決策判斷產(chǎn)生消極影響,因此大量文獻致力于討論其心理機制、影響因素以及應對策略。自Buehler, Griffin和Ross (1994)首次對觀察者與參與者在規(guī)劃謬誤中的樂觀偏差進行研究后,研究者們開始對該領域進行研究。但是對于規(guī)劃謬誤是否存在著“旁觀者清”的現(xiàn)象,目前仍然具有一定的爭議。 個體的任務經(jīng)驗是規(guī)劃謬誤的一個重要的影響因素,但是目前尚未發(fā)現(xiàn)從觀察者與參與者的任務經(jīng)驗角度來探索其對規(guī)劃謬誤的影響,本研究以此為切入點,通過對不同任務經(jīng)驗的中國大學生被試進行點鈔任務的實驗研究,以此探討不同任務經(jīng)驗的觀察者與參與者在規(guī)劃謬誤中的預測偏差的差異。 研究一通過Buehler等經(jīng)典規(guī)劃謬誤理論研究者的研究范式研究不同任務經(jīng)驗的大學生被試的任務時間預測行為,研究二通過Roy和Christenfeld等記憶偏差研究者的研究范式研究大學生被試在任務完成后對任務時間估計進行研究,研究三通過3(預測來源：高經(jīng)驗觀察者vs.低經(jīng)驗觀察者vs.參與者自身)×2(參與者任務經(jīng)驗：高經(jīng)驗vs.低經(jīng)驗)混合設計研究不同任何經(jīng)驗的觀察者與參與者的預測偏差的程度的差異。經(jīng)研究,主要得出以下結(jié)論： (1)個體的任務經(jīng)驗水平越高,越容易低估任務所需要的完成時間。 (2)給個體提供類似任務完成時間的準確反饋信息,能夠提高個體時間預測的準確度。 (3)在不同任務經(jīng)驗的觀察者與參與者的組合中,僅有高經(jīng)驗的觀察者與高經(jīng)驗的參與者之間不存在著預測偏差的顯著差異。
[Abstract]:Planning fallacy (planning fallacy) is a phenomenon that people tend to overestimate the completion time of future tasks and underestimate the completion time of tasks when estimating the completion time of tasks in the future. This phenomenon is widespread and has a negative impact on decision judgment. Therefore, a lot of literature has been devoted to discussing its psychological mechanism, influencing factors and coping strategies. Since Buehler, Griffin and Ross (1994) first studied the optimistic bias between observers and participants in the planning fallacy, researchers have begun to study this field. However, there are still some controversies about whether the planning fallacy is a "bystander" phenomenon. Individual task experience is an important influence factor of planning fallacy, but it has not been found from the perspective of mission experience of observers and participants to explore its impact on planning fallacy. Through the experimental study on the counting task of Chinese college students with different task experience, the difference of prediction deviation between observers and participants in different task experience in planning fallacy is discussed. The first study studied the task time prediction behavior of college students with different task experience through the research paradigm of classical planning fallacy theory such as Buehler. The second study was based on the research paradigm of memory bias researchers such as Roy and Christenfeld. After the task was completed, the participants studied the task time estimation. The third study was through 3 (predictive source: vs., a highly experienced observer). Low-experience observer vs. Participants themselves) 脳 2 (participant task experience: highly experienced vs. Low-experienced) mixed design studies the degree of bias between observers and participants from any experience. The main conclusions are as follows: (1) the higher the task experience level, the easier it is to underestimate the completion time required for the task. (2) to provide the individual with accurate feedback on similar task completion time. It can improve the accuracy of individual time prediction. (3) in the combination of observers and participants with different task experience, there is no significant difference between the highly experienced observers and the highly experienced participants.
【學位授予單位】：華中師范大學
【學位級別】：碩士
【學位授予年份】：2014
【分類號】：B842

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本文編號：2211808