【摘要】：日常生活中人們經(jīng)常碰到許多不確定的信息(即具有概率性質(zhì)的信息),并在此基礎(chǔ)上根據(jù)新信息或證據(jù)調(diào)整已有觀點(diǎn)得出適當(dāng)結(jié)論并做出決定,如“氣象部門根據(jù)氣候資料做出天氣預(yù)報(bào)”、“醫(yī)生根據(jù)檢查和化驗(yàn)結(jié)果做出病情診斷”、“房屋購買者根據(jù)市場信息做出是否購房決策”等等,這一過程即貝葉斯推理過程。 到目前為止,有關(guān)貝葉斯推理的行為研究仍未得到一致的結(jié)論。其爭論主要集中在以下兩個(gè)方面：(1)人們?cè)谕评碇惺欠褡裱惾~斯定理；(2)是什么原因?qū)е铝素惾~斯推理偏差?其核心的問題是,貝葉斯推理過程中基礎(chǔ)比率和擊中率這兩種關(guān)鍵的概率信息,其作用機(jī)制是怎樣的。關(guān)于這一問題,以往大多數(shù)研究是將后驗(yàn)概率估計(jì)值與貝葉斯規(guī)則計(jì)算的標(biāo)準(zhǔn)值相比較,從而得出結(jié)論；即使有研究談及推理過程和反應(yīng)時(shí),其結(jié)論也大多是根據(jù)推理結(jié)果來間接地反推其推理過程,缺乏時(shí)間進(jìn)程數(shù)據(jù)的支持�；谝酝难芯�,本研究設(shè)計(jì)兩個(gè)實(shí)驗(yàn)來進(jìn)一步探討貝葉斯推理中概率信息的作用及其認(rèn)知神經(jīng)機(jī)制。 實(shí)驗(yàn)一采用三因素混合設(shè)計(jì)考察了基礎(chǔ)比率、擊中率信息和時(shí)間壓力對(duì)貝葉斯推理的影響。結(jié)果表明,基礎(chǔ)比率和擊中率信息對(duì)后驗(yàn)概率估計(jì)值有顯著影響,而時(shí)間壓力對(duì)后驗(yàn)概率估計(jì)值的影響不顯著。 實(shí)驗(yàn)二采用兩因素被試內(nèi)設(shè)計(jì)考察了基礎(chǔ)比率和擊中率這兩個(gè)概率信息在貝葉斯推理中的作用,這是首次使用事件相關(guān)電位(ERP)技術(shù)探討貝葉斯推理的實(shí)時(shí)進(jìn)程,為進(jìn)一步揭示貝葉斯推理的認(rèn)知加工機(jī)制提供電生理學(xué)證據(jù)。結(jié)果表明,與高擊中率的推理任務(wù)相比,低擊中率的推理任務(wù)在額、頂葉誘發(fā)了一個(gè)更明顯的N1(100-200ms),而在額中央、中央頂、頂枕聯(lián)合區(qū)誘發(fā)了一個(gè)更明顯的N300(250-350ms)；與低基礎(chǔ)比率的推理任務(wù)相比,高基礎(chǔ)比率的推理任務(wù)在額、顳、頂葉誘發(fā)了一個(gè)更明顯的晚期正成分LPC(350-700ms)。 結(jié)論：本研究的實(shí)驗(yàn)表明在貝葉斯推理過程中,人們并沒有遵循貝葉斯定理,而是運(yùn)用了錨定-調(diào)整啟發(fā)式。產(chǎn)生推理偏差的原因也并非忽視基礎(chǔ)比率信息,而是在錨定-調(diào)整啟發(fā)中存在的認(rèn)知偏差和左右腦的認(rèn)知功能的差異。同時(shí),也表明推理過程主要激活了顳葉、額葉和頂葉區(qū)域,與演繹推理所激活的腦區(qū)一致。
[Abstract]:In daily life, people often encounter a lot of uncertain information (that is, information with probabilistic nature), and on this basis, according to the new information or evidence to adjust the existing views to draw appropriate conclusions and make decisions, such as "weather department based on climate data to make weather forecast", "the doctor based on the examination and test results to make a diagnosis of the disease." This process is called Bayesian inference process.
So far, the research on the behavior of Bias's reasoning has not been agreed. The debate is mainly focused on the following two aspects: (1) whether people follow the Bias theorem in reasoning; (2) what causes Bias's reasoning deviation? The core problem is that the basic ratio and hit rate in Bias's reasoning process are the key problem. What is the mechanism of the two key probability information; in the past, most of the previous studies have compared the standard values of the posterior probability estimation to the Bayes rule, and then draw a conclusion. Even if there is a study on the reasoning process and reaction, the conclusion is mostly based on the inference results to indirectly push back its push. Based on previous studies, two experiments were designed to further explore the role of probability information and its cognitive mechanism in Bayesian inference.
In Experiment 1, the influence of the basic ratio, hit rate information and time pressure on Bias's reasoning was investigated with three factor mixing design. The results showed that the basic ratio and the hit rate information had a significant influence on the posterior probability estimation, while the time pressure had no significant influence on the posterior probability estimation.
In experiment two, the role of the two probability information of basic ratio and hit rate in Bayesian inference was investigated with the two factor interior design. This is the first time to use the event correlation potential (ERP) technology to explore the real time process of Bayesian reasoning, and to provide electrophysiological evidence for further revealing the recognition processing mechanism of Bayesian inference. Compared with the reasoning task of the high hit rate, the inferential task of the low hit rate in the forehead, the parietal lobe induces a more obvious N1 (100-200ms), while in the middle of the forehead, the central top, the top occipital region induces a more obvious N300 (250-350ms); compared with the inferential task of the low base ratio, the reasoning task of the high base ratio is induced in the frontal, temporal, parietal lobe. A more obvious late positive component LPC (350-700ms).
Conclusion: This study shows that in the process of Bias's reasoning, people do not follow the Bias theorem, but use the anchoring and adjustment heuristic. The reason why the reasoning deviation is not ignored is not the basic ratio information, but the difference between the cognitive bias and the cognitive function of the left and right brain in the anchoring adjustment enlightenment. The reasoning process mainly activates the temporal lobe, frontal lobe and parietal lobe, and is consistent with the brain regions activated by deductive reasoning.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：湖南師范大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2014
【分類號(hào)】：B842.1

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