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  本文關(guān)鍵詞： 賭徒謬誤 熱手謬誤 工作記憶廣度 反饋水平 啟發(fā)式系統(tǒng)　出處：《河北大學(xué)》2017年碩士論文　論文類型：學(xué)位論文

【摘要】：關(guān)于隨機序列知覺中“賭徒謬誤”和“熱手謬誤”產(chǎn)生的心理機制,國內(nèi)外已有許多相關(guān)研究。已有的理論模型從不同的角度進行了解釋,并發(fā)現(xiàn)了影響其產(chǎn)生的不同因素,如局部序列的連續(xù)性和由預(yù)測對錯組成的反饋序列的調(diào)節(jié)作用等,但并未考慮工作記憶的作用。近期的研究則發(fā)現(xiàn)高級認知加工過程如工作記憶廣度在知覺隨機序列的過程中也發(fā)揮了重要作用,而并未考慮反饋在隨機序列知覺中的作用。本文將進一步研究工作記憶廣度在“賭徒謬誤”和“熱手謬誤”產(chǎn)生過程中的作用以及反饋水平對工作記憶作用的調(diào)節(jié)。實驗一,篩選不同工作記憶廣度的被試,讓被試對每一次硬幣拋擲的結(jié)果進行預(yù)測,發(fā)現(xiàn)在知覺隨機序列的過程中,工作記憶廣度、結(jié)果序列和反饋序列存在交互作用,共同影響近因效應(yīng)的產(chǎn)生。當(dāng)序列中某個結(jié)果不連續(xù)出現(xiàn),個體在結(jié)果預(yù)測時做出的是隨機反應(yīng)。當(dāng)序列中某個結(jié)果連續(xù)出現(xiàn)時,低工作記憶廣度被試,猜對時出現(xiàn)“熱手謬誤”,猜錯時出現(xiàn)“賭徒謬誤”;高工作記憶廣度的被試,僅在猜錯時出現(xiàn)“賭徒謬誤”。實驗二,通過獎勵條件控制反饋序列的作用水平,發(fā)現(xiàn)無論工作記憶廣度的高低,序列中某個結(jié)果不連續(xù)出現(xiàn)時,多數(shù)條件下均出現(xiàn)“熱手謬誤”。當(dāng)序列中某個結(jié)果連續(xù)出現(xiàn)時,在高獎勵條件下,猜對一次時均傾向于產(chǎn)生“熱手謬誤”,低獎勵條件下,猜對一次和連續(xù)猜對時,均傾向于產(chǎn)生“熱手謬誤”。根據(jù)推理和決策的啟發(fā)式系統(tǒng)和分析系統(tǒng)雙系統(tǒng)作用理論,對于不同工作記憶廣度被試在知覺隨機序列過程中的差異性反應(yīng),可能是反饋水平調(diào)節(jié)了啟發(fā)式系統(tǒng)作用的發(fā)揮。
[Abstract]:On the psychological mechanism of random sequence perception "gamblers fallacy" and "hot hand fallacy", there are many related research. The existing theoretical models are explained from different angles, and found the effects of different factors, such as local sequence continuity and by the prediction of the wrong composition of the feedback sequence the regulatory role, but did not consider the role of working memory. Recent studies have found that the high-level cognitive processes such as working memory span in the process of perception of random sequence also played an important role in, and did not consider the feedback in a random sequence in the perceived role. This paper will further study on working memory in the process of action in "gamblers fallacy" and "hot hand fallacy" and the regulating effect of feedback level on working memory. In Experiment 1, screening of different working memory span test, let the participants of each A coin toss results found in the process of perceptual prediction, random sequence, working memory span, the sequence and sequence feedback interaction, produce recency effect factors. As a result the sequence not consecutive, individual in the prediction results of random response. As a result sequence in the continuous, low working memory span test, right when "hot hand fallacy", guess wrong "gamblers fallacy"; high working memory capacity was tested, "gamblers fallacy" only in the wrong guess. In experiment two, control effect level feedback sequence through rewards, found regardless of the level of working memory span, a result of sequence discontinuity occurs, most conditions were a "hot hand fallacy". As a result in a sequence of consecutive, in high reward conditions, right time tend to produce "Hot hand fallacy", under the condition of low reward, and win a continuous right, tend to produce "hot hand fallacy". According to the double effect of heuristic reasoning and decision making system system analysis and system theory, for different working memory span were tested in random sequence differences of perception reaction process. May be the feedback level adjustment heuristic system play a role.

【學(xué)位授予單位】：河北大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2017
【分類號】：B842.3

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