【摘要】：奧巴馬政府執(zhí)政五年來,其對(duì)朝"戰(zhàn)略忍耐"政策因一系列內(nèi)在矛盾與缺隱而深陷"欲求交易而不成,維系現(xiàn)狀而不得"的困境之中。奧巴馬政府將朝鮮實(shí)質(zhì)性"棄核"作為美朝對(duì)話的唯一前提的做法在原則上延續(xù)了前兩任政府對(duì)朝"總體交易"的思路,但美國(guó)將"棄核"門檻的高懸與外交姿態(tài)上的強(qiáng)硬又幾乎斷絕了這種"交易"當(dāng)前達(dá)成的可能。對(duì)朝軍事態(tài)勢(shì)上由"延伸威懾"向"針對(duì)性威懾"的步步演進(jìn)表面上旨在阻遏朝鮮軍事挑釁與核武開發(fā)對(duì)其地區(qū)盟國(guó)的威脅,但恰恰是美國(guó)這種強(qiáng)勢(shì)且壓迫性的軍事姿態(tài)使得朝鮮時(shí)刻感到芒刺在背,在極度的不安全感中堅(jiān)定其"擁核自保"戰(zhàn)線。在奧巴馬政府大力推進(jìn)其亞太"再平衡"戰(zhàn)略的大背景下,朝核與半島問題既是美國(guó)的安全挑戰(zhàn)——擁核的朝鮮的確對(duì)美東北亞前沿軍事部署構(gòu)成重大威脅;但在某種意義上也是其戰(zhàn)略機(jī)遇——以朝核問題為抓手,美國(guó)鞏固同盟、調(diào)整部署、強(qiáng)化存在等一系列舉措都得到了口實(shí)與助力。出于上述考慮,奧巴馬政府對(duì)朝的"戰(zhàn)略忍耐"實(shí)質(zhì)上沒有給出明確地對(duì)朝戰(zhàn)略指向與長(zhǎng)遠(yuǎn)的戰(zhàn)略規(guī)劃,而是在"總體交易"的傳統(tǒng)戰(zhàn)略思路與刻意"淡化"問題、"固化"矛盾、對(duì)之或"推卸責(zé)任",或"因勢(shì)利導(dǎo)"的機(jī)會(huì)主義短期路線兩者間采取了平衡兼顧、相機(jī)而動(dòng)的實(shí)用主義做法。從效果上看,上述做法在強(qiáng)化對(duì)朝施壓力度、配合助推"再平衡"戰(zhàn)略等方面取得了部分成效,但卻事實(shí)上放任了朝鮮擁核的步伐,惡化了危機(jī)的前景,增加了未來解決問題的難度。
[Abstract]:Since the Obama administration has been in power for five years, its policy of "strategic patience" towards North Korea has been mired in the dilemma of "wanting to trade but not maintaining the status quo" because of a series of inherent contradictions and lack of concealment. The Obama administration's practice of making North Korea's substantive "nuclear abandonment" the only prerequisite for dialogue between the United States and North Korea has, in principle, continued the previous two administrations' thinking on the "overall deal" against North Korea, but the United States has suspended the threshold of "nuclear abandonment" from the tough diplomatic posture and almost cut off the current possibility of such a "deal." The gradual evolution of North Korea's military posture from "extended deterrence" to "targeted deterrence" is ostensibly aimed at deterring the threat posed by North Korea's military provocation and nuclear weapons development to its regional allies, but it is precisely the strong and oppressive military posture of the United States that makes North Korea feel on its back at all times and strengthen its "nuclear self-protection" front in the midst of extreme insecurity. Under the background of the Obama administration vigorously promoting its "rebalancing" strategy in the Asia-Pacific region, the North Korean nuclear and peninsula issues are both security challenges for the United States-the nuclear-owned North Korea does pose a major threat to the front military deployment in Northeast Asia, but in a sense, it is also its strategic opportunity-a series of measures such as consolidating the DPRK's nuclear issue, adjusting its deployment, strengthening its existence, and so on. In view of the above considerations, the Obama administration's "strategic patience" to the DPRK essentially does not give a clear strategic direction and long-term strategic planning for the DPRK, but takes a balanced and pragmatic approach between the traditional strategic thinking of the "overall transaction" and the deliberate "desalination" of the problem, "solidifying" the contradiction, or "shirking responsibility," or "guiding the situation" in the short-term line of opportunity. From the point of view of effect, the above measures have achieved some results in strengthening pressure on the DPRK and promoting the strategy of "rebalancing", but in fact, the DPRK has allowed the pace of nuclear support, aggravated the prospect of the crisis, and made it more difficult to solve the problem in the future.
【作者單位】： 吉林大學(xué)行政學(xué)院;吉林大學(xué)行政學(xué)院國(guó)際政治系;
【基金】：2013年國(guó)家社科基金重點(diǎn)項(xiàng)目(13AGJ003) 吉林大學(xué)基本科研業(yè)務(wù)費(fèi)項(xiàng)目——種子基金項(xiàng)目(2013ZZ018) 吉林大學(xué)基本科研業(yè)務(wù)經(jīng)費(fèi)項(xiàng)目——科學(xué)前沿與交插學(xué)科創(chuàng)新項(xiàng)目(2011QY091)
【分類號(hào)】：D871.2

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