本文選題：中亞 + 中美能源�。� 參考：《南京師范大學》2011年碩士論文

【摘要】：21世紀以來,隨著能源需求的迅猛增長、國際油價的居高不下和國際能源形勢的日益嚴峻,能源安全開始成為全球性的問題被世界各國所關注。圍繞能源安全,世界各主要能源消費國尤其是中美兩國,在能源主產區(qū)展開了激烈競爭。其中,中亞——作為21世紀的能源基地,憑借其豐富的能源資源和重要的地理位置成為世界各大力量爭奪的熱點地區(qū)。 因此,本文以中亞地區(qū)為大背景,通過對中美兩國的中亞能源安全戰(zhàn)略分析來透視中美在中亞地區(qū)各自的利益訴求和戰(zhàn)略考慮,以博弈論為起點,從結構現(xiàn)實主義、新自由制度主義的視角審視中美在中亞地區(qū)的能源安全博弈,并對中美在中亞地區(qū)乃至全球能源安全博弈的方向作出預測性的理論分析。 透視中美在中亞地區(qū)的能源關系現(xiàn)狀,中美雙方具有矛盾和沖突的諸多障礙因素：中美兩國之間互信缺失、相互猜忌,美國對于能源問題泛政治化,中美在中亞地區(qū)有著不同的利益訴求……這些矛盾和分歧使得中美兩國在中亞地區(qū)的能源安全博弈可能會趨向于零和博弈。結構現(xiàn)實主義從學理上對此也作出了強有力的理論支撐。但是,我們同時應該看到,中美在中亞除了存在矛盾和分歧外,還存在廣泛的共同利益：分享中亞天然氣資源、避免兩國發(fā)生能源沖突是兩國的共同愿望；兩國都希望以合理的價格穩(wěn)定地安全地從中亞地區(qū)獲得可靠的充足的能源供應；兩國都致力于打擊恐怖主義、維護中亞地區(qū)的和平穩(wěn)定……這些共同點為實現(xiàn)中美在中亞地區(qū)的能源安全合作提供了極大的協(xié)調空間。不難看出,中美能源關系恰似兩難。這致使雙方能源合作既有機會,又困難重重。 圍繞能源安全展開的國家間競爭能否產生合作的機會,新自由制度主義合作論、能源博弈自主合作模型為中美兩國開展能源合作提供了理論平臺。事實上中美兩國可以通過建立兩國間的戰(zhàn)略互信、以上海合作組織為平臺建立多邊合作機制等措施來避免對抗性、排他性的“零和”式博弈,走向“非零和”式競爭下的合作,實現(xiàn)各自能源安全的“雙贏”局面。
[Abstract]:Since the 21st century, with the rapid growth of energy demand, high international oil prices and increasingly severe international energy situation, energy security has become a global problem. Around energy security, major energy consuming countries in the world, especially China and the United States, have launched fierce competition in the main energy producing areas. As an energy base in the 21st century, Central Asia, with its abundant energy resources and important geographical position, has become a hot spot in the world. Therefore, this paper takes Central Asia as the background, through the analysis of the Central Asian energy security strategy of China and the United States to perspective the interests and strategic considerations of China and the United States in Central Asia, starting from the game theory, from the structural realism. From the perspective of neo-liberal institutionalism, this paper examines the energy security game between China and the United States in Central Asia, and makes a predictive theoretical analysis of the direction of the energy security game between China and the United States in Central Asia and even in the whole world. Looking into the current energy relations between China and the United States in Central Asia, China and the United States have many obstacles to conflicts and contradictions: mutual trust between China and the United States, mutual distrust, and politicization of the energy issue in the United States. China and the United States have different interests in Central Asia. These contradictions and differences may make the energy security game between China and the United States in Central Asia tend to zero sum game. Structural realism has also made a strong theoretical support to this from a theoretical point of view. But at the same time, we should see that in addition to the contradictions and differences in Central Asia, China and the United States also have a wide range of common interests: sharing natural gas resources in Central Asia and avoiding energy conflicts between the two countries are the common aspirations of the two countries; Both countries hope to secure a reliable and adequate energy supply from Central Asia at reasonable prices and are committed to fighting terrorism and maintaining peace and stability in Central Asia. These common points provide a great space for coordination of energy security cooperation between China and the United States in Central Asia. It is not difficult to see that the energy relationship between China and the United States is a dilemma. This makes energy cooperation between the two sides both opportunities and difficulties. Whether the inter-state competition around energy security can produce the opportunity of cooperation, neo-liberal institutionalism cooperation theory, energy game independent cooperation model provides a theoretical platform for China and the United States to carry out energy cooperation. In fact, China and the United States can avoid antagonism and exclusive "zero-sum" game by building strategic mutual trust between the two countries and establishing a multilateral cooperation mechanism on the platform of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization to move towards cooperation under the "non-zero sum" type of competition. To achieve their own energy security "win-win" situation.
【學位授予單位】：南京師范大學
【學位級別】：碩士
【學位授予年份】：2011
【分類號】：D822.3;F416.2

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