本文選題：亞太秩序 + 多元復(fù)合結(jié)構(gòu)�。� 參考：《世界經(jīng)濟(jì)與政治》2017年06期

【摘要】：近年來(lái),亞太地區(qū)進(jìn)入了以相關(guān)國(guó)家力量對(duì)比變化和地區(qū)戰(zhàn)略調(diào)整為主要特征的格局大變革時(shí)期。作者從環(huán)境變化、力量變化、趨勢(shì)變化和秩序變化四個(gè)方面分析這一格局變動(dòng)。在環(huán)境變化方面,亞太地理范圍的擴(kuò)大和行為體的增加、行為體之間互動(dòng)方式的變化,使得亞太格局呈現(xiàn)出越來(lái)越顯著的"多元復(fù)合結(jié)構(gòu)"特征。在力量變化方面,中美、中日力量對(duì)比的變化具有重要意義,值得注意的是:中國(guó)、日本從長(zhǎng)期重視經(jīng)濟(jì)力量的作用轉(zhuǎn)為愈來(lái)愈重視發(fā)揮安全力量的作用,而美國(guó)則從長(zhǎng)期倚重安全牌轉(zhuǎn)向更加重視經(jīng)濟(jì)牌。在趨勢(shì)變化上,一方面,未來(lái)亞太地緣政治變化的關(guān)鍵取決于中美戰(zhàn)略互動(dòng),而與中美戰(zhàn)略沖突的可能性相比,中美走向戰(zhàn)略妥協(xié)的可能性更大;另一方面,未來(lái)十年亞太地緣經(jīng)濟(jì)格局走向部分整合的可能性較高。就長(zhǎng)期趨勢(shì)來(lái)說(shuō),地緣政治變化將是溫和的,而地緣經(jīng)濟(jì)演變將是強(qiáng)勁的,后者會(huì)更多地影響前者。在秩序變化方面,驅(qū)動(dòng)亞太秩序演變的經(jīng)濟(jì)邏輯將進(jìn)一步強(qiáng)化,霸權(quán)秩序的成分會(huì)進(jìn)一步下降,秩序結(jié)構(gòu)更加平面化,平等性上升,合作性增強(qiáng),與地區(qū)格局的變化相適應(yīng),亞太秩序?qū)⒊尸F(xiàn)為多元復(fù)合的地區(qū)共同體形態(tài)。
[Abstract]:In recent years, the Asia-Pacific region has entered a period of great change characterized by changes in the relative national power balance and regional strategic adjustment. The author analyzes this pattern change from four aspects: environment change, force change, trend change and order change. In terms of environmental change, the enlargement of geographical scope and the increase of actors in Asia and the Pacific, and the change of interaction mode among actors, make the Asia-Pacific pattern more and more obvious "multiple complex structure" characteristics. In terms of changes in power, the changes in the balance of power between China, the United States, and China and Japan are of great significance. It is worth noting that China and Japan have shifted from a long-term emphasis on the role of economic power to a growing emphasis on the role of security forces. The United States has shifted from a long-term reliance on safety to a greater emphasis on the economy. In terms of trends, on the one hand, the key to future geopolitical changes in Asia and the Pacific depends on the strategic interaction between China and the United States, and compared with the possibility of strategic conflict between China and the United States, China and the United States are more likely to move towards strategic compromise; on the other hand, The possibility of partial integration of Asia-Pacific geo-economic pattern in the next decade is high. In terms of long-term trends, geopolitical change will be moderate, while geopolitical evolution will be strong, and the latter will affect the former more. In terms of order changes, the economic logic that drives the evolution of the Asia-Pacific order will be further strengthened, the elements of the hegemonic order will further decline, the structure of the order will become more flat, equality will rise, and cooperation will increase, which will be adapted to the changes in the regional pattern. The Asia-Pacific order will present itself as a pluralistic and complex regional community.
【作者單位】： 復(fù)旦大學(xué)美國(guó)研究中心;
【基金】：筆者承擔(dān)的國(guó)家社科基金重大項(xiàng)目“美國(guó)的亞太布局與我國(guó)的亞太方略研究”(項(xiàng)目批準(zhǔn)號(hào):12&ZD083)成果的一部分
【分類號(hào)】：D815

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本文編號(hào)：2070111