本文選題：中東地區(qū) + 核擴(kuò)散��； 參考：《北京外國語大學(xué)》2013年博士論文

【摘要】：由于核武器具有常規(guī)武器無法替代的多重效應(yīng),核威懾具有常規(guī)軍力無法達(dá)成的戰(zhàn)略價(jià)值,在政治形勢最嚴(yán)峻、安全結(jié)構(gòu)最脆弱的中東地區(qū),仍有個(gè)別國家無視國際法的存在,投入大量財(cái)力物力,力圖擁有核武器以求得戰(zhàn)略制衡。中東地區(qū)核擴(kuò)散問題歷史久遠(yuǎn)。20世紀(jì)70年代以來,以色列就掌握了核技術(shù),成為事實(shí)上的“有核國家”。埃及、利比亞、伊拉克、伊朗等國也曾一度著手進(jìn)行核研發(fā),但均因種種原因而半途停滯或取消。冷戰(zhàn)結(jié)束后,以大國強(qiáng)權(quán)為軸心的國際體系失衡,導(dǎo)致防核擴(kuò)散所需的制衡力量有所減弱；以大國利益為核心的核不擴(kuò)散機(jī)制存在雙重標(biāo)準(zhǔn),致使國際社會(huì)制約作用日趨式微。特別是在2003年伊拉克戰(zhàn)爭后,受美國單邊主義政策和先發(fā)制人戰(zhàn)略刺激,核威懾作為中東地區(qū)最有效的戰(zhàn)略制衡手段再度受到各國青睞。繼以色列核問題之后,伊朗核問題日益凸顯,2006年起部分阿拉伯國家又相繼提出核開發(fā)計(jì)劃。 目前,中東地區(qū)的核擴(kuò)散范圍日趨擴(kuò)大,包括事實(shí)上的核國家——如以色列,積極推動(dòng)核計(jì)劃的國家——如伊朗,核計(jì)劃進(jìn)展緩慢的國家——如埃及、阿爾及利亞,新近開始謀求實(shí)施核計(jì)劃的國家——如沙特阿拉伯、阿聯(lián)酋等。中東各國以往的歷史矛盾與當(dāng)今的現(xiàn)實(shí)利益交錯(cuò)縈繞,國際大國的利益角逐與國際社會(huì)的調(diào)解壓力相互碰撞,致使中東核擴(kuò)散問題發(fā)展態(tài)勢復(fù)雜、前景難測。因此,以中東地區(qū)的核擴(kuò)散問題為主要研究對象,梳理發(fā)展歷程、分析產(chǎn)生原因、評估當(dāng)前態(tài)勢、展望未來走向,具有一定學(xué)術(shù)價(jià)值及現(xiàn)實(shí)意義。 本文從分析中東地區(qū)核擴(kuò)散問題的發(fā)展過程入手,第一章主要以時(shí)間為序,借助歷史分析法、文獻(xiàn)分析法、案例分析法,闡明中東國家核選擇的歷史淵源,總結(jié)中東國家核能力的發(fā)展歷程。第二章在綜合大量數(shù)據(jù)分析的基礎(chǔ)上,對以色列、伊朗、埃及等阿拉伯國家目前的核能力進(jìn)行綜合評估,對中東地區(qū)核擴(kuò)散的現(xiàn)狀進(jìn)行具體解析。第三章引入國際關(guān)系現(xiàn)實(shí)主義理論中的“安全困境”("security dilemma")、“實(shí)力均勢”("balance of power")等理論模式,在分析中東國家核選擇的內(nèi)部動(dòng)因、闡述中東國家核選擇現(xiàn)狀的基礎(chǔ)上總結(jié)中東國家核選擇與中東地區(qū)核擴(kuò)散之間的關(guān)系。第四章從域外大國的中東政策著手,研究美、俄、中等國以及歐盟對中東國家核選擇的態(tài)度,歸納這些國家或組織對中東核擴(kuò)散問題的影響。第五章以中東地區(qū)核軍備控制機(jī)制為研究對象,從國際法、國際機(jī)構(gòu)等角度出發(fā),剖析中東核軍備控制機(jī)制施行困難的癥結(jié)。第六章分析當(dāng)前影響中東地區(qū)核不擴(kuò)散的正反兩方面因素,預(yù)測中東核擴(kuò)散問題的發(fā)展前景。 本文經(jīng)過研究得出結(jié)論：核因素的加入,不僅為中東地區(qū)增添了新的威脅,更使本來就存在的矛盾態(tài)勢更加紛繁復(fù)雜。目前,中東地區(qū)的核擴(kuò)散正處于“既有近憂,也有遠(yuǎn)慮”的嚴(yán)峻態(tài)勢。從地區(qū)內(nèi)部看,中東國家出于對絕對安全的追逐、對地區(qū)主導(dǎo)的渴求、對能源壓力的緩解等因素,暫時(shí)不會(huì)停止對核能力的追求。從外部影響看,由于一定程度上國際法規(guī)的缺失、國際機(jī)構(gòu)保障不力、大國的雙重標(biāo)準(zhǔn)等因素的影響,中東地區(qū)核擴(kuò)散態(tài)勢在未來一段時(shí)間內(nèi)仍會(huì)繼續(xù)升級(jí)加劇。中東地區(qū)核軍控的全面建立、核擴(kuò)散的有效遏止、核安全的真正實(shí)現(xiàn),必須構(gòu)建在地區(qū)政治和安全環(huán)境全面改善的基礎(chǔ)之上。
[Abstract]:Because nuclear weapons have multiple effects that conventional weapons cannot replace, nuclear deterrence has the strategic value that conventional military forces can't reach. In the Middle East, where the political situation is the most severe and the most vulnerable in the security structure, there are still some countries who ignore the existence of international law and invest a lot of financial and material resources, trying to have nuclear weapons to achieve strategic checks and balances. Since the history of nuclear proliferation in the region long since the 70s.20 century, Israel has mastered nuclear technology and became a de facto "nuclear state". Egypt, Libya, Iraq, Iran and other countries have also begun to carry out nuclear research and development, but they all stopped or cancelled for a variety of reasons. After the end of the cold war, the international system with the power of power as an axis was lost. Balance, the balance force needed to prevent nuclear proliferation has been weakened; the nuclear non-proliferation mechanism, with the interests of the great powers, has double standards, which has resulted in the declining role of the international community. In particular, after the Iraq war in 2003, the nuclear deterrence was the most effective in the Middle East, under the US unilateralism and preemptive warfare. After the Israeli nuclear issue, the nuclear issue of Iran has become increasingly prominent. In 2006, some Arabia countries have proposed a nuclear development program.
At present, the range of nuclear proliferation in the Middle East is growing, including de facto nuclear countries such as Israel, such as Iran, countries such as Egypt and Algeria, such as Egypt, and the United Arab Emirates, such as Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates, which are actively promoting nuclear programs, such as Iran, and Algeria. The historical contradictions and current realities are interlace, and the interests of the international powers collide with the mediation pressure of the international community, which makes the development of nuclear proliferation in the Middle East complicated and unpredictable. Therefore, the problem of nuclear proliferation in the Middle East is the main object of research, combing the development process, analyzing the causes and assessing the current state. It has certain academic value and practical significance to look forward to the future trend.
This article starts with the analysis of the development process of nuclear proliferation in the Middle East. The first chapter mainly takes time as a preface, with the aid of historical analysis, literature analysis and case analysis, to clarify the historical origin of nuclear choice in the Middle East countries and summarize the development course of the nuclear ability of the Middle East countries. The second chapter is on the basis of comprehensive data analysis to Israel, Iran, Egypt and other Arabia countries present a comprehensive assessment of nuclear capacity in the Middle East. The third chapter introduces the "security dilemma" ("security dilemma"), "power balance" ("balance of power") and other theoretical models, in the analysis of the nuclear choice of the Middle East countries. On the basis of the internal motivation, the relationship between the nuclear choice of Middle East countries and the nuclear proliferation in the Middle East is summarized on the basis of the present situation of the Middle East countries' nuclear choice. The fourth chapter begins with the Middle East policy of the extraterritorial countries to study the attitude of the United States, Russia, middle countries and the EU on the nuclear choice of the Middle East countries, and the reflection of these countries or organizations on the nuclear proliferation in the Middle East. The fifth chapter takes the nuclear arms control mechanism in the Middle East as the research object, and analyzes the crux of the difficulties in the Middle East nuclear arms control mechanism in the Middle East from the perspectives of international law and international institutions. The sixth chapter analyzes the positive and negative factors that affect the nuclear non-proliferation in the middle East, and predicts the prospects for the development of the nuclear proliferation in the Middle East.
The conclusion of this paper is that the accession of nuclear factors not only adds new threats to the Middle East, but also makes the existing contradiction more complicated. At present, the nuclear proliferation in the Middle East is in a severe situation of "both concerns and concerns". From the regional perspective, the Middle East countries are pursuing the absolute security. From the external influence, the nuclear proliferation situation in the Middle East will continue to escalate in the next period of time due to the lack of international regulations, the inability of international institutions and the double standards of great powers. The comprehensive establishment of nuclear arms control in the Middle East, the effective suppression of nuclear proliferation and the real realization of nuclear security must be built on the basis of the comprehensive improvement of the regional political and security environment.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：北京外國語大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：博士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2013
【分類號(hào)】：K15;D815.2

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