本文選題：伊朗核問題　切入點：中伊關(guān)系　出處：《西南大學(xué)》2011年碩士論文　論文類型：學(xué)位論文

【摘要】：中國與伊朗在政治、經(jīng)濟(jì)、文化方面都有著悠久的交往歷史。新中國成立之前,中伊兩國進(jìn)行著斷斷續(xù)續(xù)的交往；新中國成立之初,伊朗奉行親美反華政策,中伊關(guān)系始終未能取得突破性發(fā)展；直到20世紀(jì)60年代后期,國際形勢發(fā)生巨變,中伊關(guān)系開始“破冰”,并于1971年8月16日建立外交關(guān)系；中國改革開放之后,中伊關(guān)系繼續(xù)向前發(fā)展并經(jīng)歷了霍梅尼階段和哈梅內(nèi)伊階段。2003年以來,伊朗核問題浮出水面,中伊關(guān)系發(fā)展將存在更多變數(shù)。 中伊關(guān)系發(fā)展受到多方面因素的影響,既有國家利益、地緣政治、大國、國際形勢和國際環(huán)境、歷史宗教文化等因素的影響,也有中伊兩國對外戰(zhàn)略差異因素的影響,還受到中伊發(fā)展方式和階段目標(biāo)的差異和其他特殊性與不確定因素的制約。其中,伊朗核問題的走向?qū)Ξ?dāng)前中伊關(guān)系的發(fā)展產(chǎn)生極其重要的影響。 其實,在美國等西方國家的幫助下,伊朗于20世紀(jì)50年代開核研究。但是,2003年以來,伊朗的核計劃變成了世界關(guān)注的核“問題”。伊朗核問題的實質(zhì)是美國與伊朗關(guān)系長期敵對的結(jié)果,是美伊關(guān)系問題,但是起著動搖中國-美國-伊朗“三角”關(guān)系穩(wěn)定的作用。如果美國堅決反對伊朗擁核、伊朗決心成為核國家的局面對峙下去,中-美-伊關(guān)系的“三角”將不再穩(wěn)定,那時伊朗不會只把“機(jī)遇”給予中國,還將讓中國面臨更艱難的抉擇和更嚴(yán)峻的挑戰(zhàn),這是正在出現(xiàn)、中國應(yīng)當(dāng)努力避免的局面。 從近期看,受到種種因素制約,美國暫時不會因核問題對伊朗動武,將繼續(xù)向伊朗施加壓力、迫使伊朗就范。但從長遠(yuǎn)看,美伊之間這種威脅與反威脅、制裁與反制裁的“游戲”不可能無限期的“玩下去”,伊朗核問題終歸要解決。而和平談判解決伊核問題的前景不甚樂觀,最終美伊雙方將因核問題兵戎相見,這只是時間問題。 中國從國家利益出發(fā),應(yīng)制定近期和遠(yuǎn)期對伊朗戰(zhàn)略。在近期,中國在高度關(guān)注、積極應(yīng)對伊核問題的現(xiàn)實發(fā)展的同時,還應(yīng)該從全球、中-美-伊關(guān)系“三角”的層面做好應(yīng)對之策,力保中伊關(guān)系持續(xù)發(fā)展。在遠(yuǎn)期,中國應(yīng)該未雨綢繆,降低對伊朗能源的依賴性,增加能源進(jìn)口渠道；即使美伊爆發(fā)戰(zhàn)爭,中國仍然應(yīng)該重點發(fā)展對美關(guān)系；同時,在戰(zhàn)爭爆發(fā)的情況下,中國應(yīng)該采取措施使其在伊朗乃至中東的利益損失減少到最低。
[Abstract]:China and Iran have a long history of political, economic and cultural exchanges. Before the founding of New China, China and Iran engaged in intermittent exchanges; at the beginning of the founding of New China, Iran pursued a pro-US anti-China policy. Sino-Iranian relations have never made a breakthrough; until the late 1960s, when the international situation changed dramatically, Sino-Iranian relations began to "break the ice," and diplomatic relations were established in August 16th 1971. After China's reform and opening up, Since 2003, the Iranian nuclear issue has surfaced, and there will be more variables in the development of Sino-Iranian relations. The development of Sino-Iranian relations is influenced by many factors, including national interests, geopolitics, great powers, international situation and international environment, historical, religious and cultural factors, as well as the factors of the differences between the two countries' foreign strategies. It is also restricted by the differences in the development mode and stage goals of China and Iraq and other particularities and uncertainties, among which, the trend of the Iranian nuclear issue will have an extremely important impact on the development of the current Sino-Iranian relations. In fact, with the help of the United States and other Western countries, Iran opened nuclear research on 1950s. However, since 2003, Iran's nuclear program has become a nuclear "problem" of concern to the world. The essence of the Iranian nuclear issue is the result of a long period of hostility between the United States and Iran, as well as the issue of US-Iran relations. But it has the effect of destabilizing the "triangle" relationship between China, the United States and Iran. If the United States resolutely opposes Iran's nuclear support and Iran is determined to remain a nuclear power, the "triangle" of China-U.S.-Iran relations will no longer be stable. At that time, Iran will not only give China "opportunities", but will also make China face more difficult choices and more serious challenges, which is emerging and China should try to avoid the situation. In the near term, under various constraints, the United States will not use force against Iran for the time being over the nuclear issue, and will continue to exert pressure on Iran to force Iran to submit. But in the long run, this kind of threat and counter-threat between the United States and Iraq, Sanctions and anti-sanctions "games" cannot be played indefinitely, and the Iranian nuclear issue will eventually be resolved. The prospects for a peaceful settlement of the Iranian nuclear issue are not very optimistic. Finally, the United States and Iraq will meet over the nuclear issue, which is only a matter of time. Proceeding from the national interest, China should formulate a strategy for Iran in the near and long term. In the near future, while paying close attention to and actively responding to the actual development of the Iranian nuclear issue, China should also start from the global perspective. In the long run, China should be prepared to reduce its dependence on Iran's energy and increase its energy import channels; even if a war breaks out between the United States and Iraq, China should still focus on developing relations with the United States, and in the event of a war, it should take measures to minimize its loss of interest in Iran and the Middle East.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：西南大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2011
【分類號】：D822.3

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