本文關(guān)鍵詞： 北大西洋公約組織 核武器 核態(tài)勢(shì) 核政策 烏克蘭危機(jī) 歐美俄關(guān)系　出處：《國際安全研究》2017年05期 　論文類型：期刊論文

【摘要】：北大西洋公約組織作為軍事同盟,自建立之初就以美國核武器的"延伸威懾"為安全保障。冷戰(zhàn)時(shí)期,歐洲曾是美蘇爭(zhēng)奪霸權(quán)的重要戰(zhàn)場(chǎng),雙方進(jìn)行了瘋狂的核軍備競(jìng)賽,歐洲長(zhǎng)時(shí)間籠罩在核陰云之中。冷戰(zhàn)結(jié)束后,歐洲各國從核陰霾中成功走出,在美國的主導(dǎo)下,北約實(shí)力逐步走向全盛時(shí)期。出于對(duì)后冷戰(zhàn)時(shí)期國際安全形勢(shì)的樂觀判斷,北約的關(guān)注重點(diǎn)從單純的傳統(tǒng)軍事防御向更加廣泛的非傳統(tǒng)安全領(lǐng)域擴(kuò)展,核武器在北約防衛(wèi)中的作用不斷減弱,核武器規(guī)模不斷裁減。然而,2014年的烏克蘭危機(jī)給歐洲的戰(zhàn)略格局帶來巨大沖擊,俄與美歐關(guān)系降至冰點(diǎn),雙方開始輪番展示核力量,核陰影再次重現(xiàn)歐洲上空。從北約核態(tài)勢(shì)的歷史演變軌跡和烏克蘭危機(jī)對(duì)北約核態(tài)勢(shì)的沖擊中,人們能夠窺見北約未來安全發(fā)展態(tài)勢(shì)。當(dāng)前北約與俄羅斯核態(tài)勢(shì)的變化,預(yù)示著未來核競(jìng)賽模式與風(fēng)險(xiǎn)都會(huì)與冷戰(zhàn)時(shí)期有所不同,意味著核門檻的降低以及核武器使用風(fēng)險(xiǎn)的增加,這對(duì)全球核不擴(kuò)散機(jī)制、全球核裁軍進(jìn)程與全球軍事競(jìng)爭(zhēng)模式都將產(chǎn)生深遠(yuǎn)影響。
[Abstract]:The North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO), as a military alliance, has used the "extended deterrence" of American nuclear weapons as a security guarantee since its inception. During the Cold War, Europe was an important battlefield in which the United States and the Soviet Union fought for hegemony, and the two sides engaged in a crazy nuclear arms race. Europe has been shrouded in the nuclear cloud for a long time. After the end of the Cold War, European countries successfully emerged from the nuclear haze. Under the leadership of the United States, NATO's strength gradually moved to its heyday. Based on an optimistic judgment on the international security situation in the post-Cold War era, NATO's focus has expanded from purely traditional military defence to a wider range of non-traditional security areas, and the role of nuclear weapons in NATO's defence has been diminishing. The scale of nuclear weapons has been continuously reduced. However, the Ukraine crisis in 2014 had a huge impact on the strategic pattern of Europe. Relations between Russia and the United States and Europe fell to a freezing point, and both sides began to display nuclear forces in turn. The nuclear shadow is once again over Europe. From the historical evolution of NATO's nuclear posture and the impact of the crisis in Ukraine on NATO's nuclear posture, people can see NATO's future security developments. The current changes in NATO and Russia's nuclear posture, Foreshadowing that the patterns and risks of the nuclear race in the future will be different from those of the cold war, which means that the nuclear threshold will be lowered and the risk of the use of nuclear weapons will increase, which will contribute to the global nuclear non-proliferation regime, Both the global nuclear disarmament process and the global military competition model will have a profound impact.
【作者單位】： 北京應(yīng)用物理與計(jì)算數(shù)學(xué)研究所;中國工程物理研究院戰(zhàn)略研究中心;中國工程物理研究院戰(zhàn)略研究中心軍控研究室;
【分類號(hào)】：D815

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