【摘要】：塔利班是影響阿富汗重建工作順利進(jìn)展的主要因素。奧馬爾去世后,塔利班內(nèi)部紛爭(zhēng)加劇,"伊斯蘭國(guó)"阿富汗分支"呼羅珊省"勢(shì)力增強(qiáng),加尼政府軍事清剿力度加大與外部勢(shì)力打擊和制裁措施升級(jí),都在一定程度上削弱了塔利班的實(shí)力。為此,塔利班采取了選擇強(qiáng)硬領(lǐng)導(dǎo)人、頻繁發(fā)動(dòng)襲擊、堅(jiān)持游擊戰(zhàn)等相應(yīng)的反制措施。就目前情況來看,塔利班正在整合內(nèi)部力量,出于爭(zhēng)奪阿富汗局勢(shì)主導(dǎo)權(quán)的考慮,塔利班發(fā)動(dòng)襲擊的頻率和強(qiáng)度可能會(huì)增加,而加尼政府的軍事打擊和外部勢(shì)力的介入很難從根本上消滅塔利班勢(shì)力。阿富汗政府、外部勢(shì)力與塔利班三種力量的相互作用,將決定阿富汗局勢(shì)的未來走向。
[Abstract]:The Taliban are the main factors that affect the smooth progress of reconstruction in Afghanistan. After Omar's death, internal disputes among the Taliban intensified, the "Khorasan province" branch of the "Islamic State" in Afghanistan became more powerful, and the Ghani government intensified its military campaign against the Taliban and escalated its sanctions measures with external forces. Both have weakened the Taliban to some extent. To this end, the Taliban took tough leaders, frequent attacks, guerrilla warfare and other counter-measures. As things stand, the Taliban are integrating their internal forces and the frequency and intensity of Taliban attacks is likely to increase in order to gain control over the situation in Afghanistan. Mr Ghani's military strike and the involvement of outside forces will hardly wipe out the Taliban. The interaction of the Afghan government, external forces and the Taliban will determine the future of the situation in Afghanistan.
【作者單位】： 西安外國(guó)語(yǔ)大學(xué)國(guó)際關(guān)系學(xué)院;
【分類號(hào)】：D815.4

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