本文選題：頁(yè)巖氣　切入點(diǎn)：致密油　出處：《遼寧大學(xué)》2017年碩士論文　論文類型：學(xué)位論文

【摘要】：頁(yè)巖革命使美國(guó)由能源凈進(jìn)口國(guó)變?yōu)榱四茉磧舫隹趪?guó),用技術(shù)革新重新定義了商業(yè)可開(kāi)采能源的范圍,也為分析能源市場(chǎng)提供了一種新的思路,十年前的高油價(jià)時(shí)代人們認(rèn)為化石能源是不可再生的會(huì)被開(kāi)采殆盡的,而頁(yè)巖革命則表明了技術(shù)進(jìn)步可使過(guò)去商業(yè)不可開(kāi)采的能源變?yōu)榭砷_(kāi)采能源。頁(yè)巖革命之后還有可燃冰開(kāi)采技術(shù)尚待發(fā)展,可燃冰開(kāi)采技術(shù)之后還有可再生能源技術(shù),而由于能源利用率提高全球能源消耗達(dá)到一定峰值后就會(huì)開(kāi)始下降。頁(yè)巖革命重構(gòu)了全球能源蘊(yùn)藏地圖,也顛覆了十年前高油價(jià)時(shí)代關(guān)于能源市場(chǎng)的常識(shí)。傳統(tǒng)上認(rèn)為低油價(jià)會(huì)促進(jìn)經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng),而頁(yè)巖革命后只有印度等少數(shù)國(guó)家因?yàn)橛蛢r(jià)降低而經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)。能源政治的發(fā)展也不再遵循過(guò)去的經(jīng)驗(yàn),在敘利亞、利比亞政治動(dòng)蕩、“伊斯蘭國(guó)”崛起的同時(shí)油價(jià)卻在下降,傳統(tǒng)上通過(guò)減產(chǎn)維持油價(jià)的沙特在2015年拒絕減產(chǎn)。根據(jù)國(guó)際能源署(IEA)的定義,能源安全指“能在支付能力范圍內(nèi)不受中斷地獲取能源”。能源價(jià)格是能源安全的重要組成部分。在頁(yè)巖革命的影響下,世界石油和天然氣市場(chǎng)由賣方市場(chǎng)轉(zhuǎn)變?yōu)橘I方市場(chǎng),能源進(jìn)口國(guó)的議價(jià)能力得到提升,石油和天然氣出口國(guó)很難再利用中斷能源供應(yīng)作為“能源武器”在國(guó)際政治舞臺(tái)發(fā)揮作用。相反,在國(guó)際經(jīng)濟(jì)不景氣的大背景下,經(jīng)濟(jì)結(jié)構(gòu)單一的能源出口國(guó)需要依賴能源進(jìn)口國(guó)拓展市場(chǎng),增加財(cái)政收入。但能源進(jìn)口國(guó)地位的提升在不同地區(qū)的表現(xiàn)程度是不同的,這主要受制于各地區(qū)出于不同地理位置和歷史原因形成的不同定價(jià)規(guī)則。本文辨析了最近幾年能源市場(chǎng)產(chǎn)生的轉(zhuǎn)變哪些是由頁(yè)巖革命引起,哪些是由于頁(yè)巖革命和其他因素一起發(fā)揮的作用�？疾炝隧�(yè)巖革命分別對(duì)美國(guó)、傳統(tǒng)能源出口國(guó)和主要能源進(jìn)口國(guó)的能源安全和經(jīng)濟(jì)安全的影響,并分析了各國(guó)面對(duì)頁(yè)巖革命的具體行為表現(xiàn)和可能的行為方向。本文重點(diǎn)考察了頁(yè)巖革命對(duì)各主要能源市場(chǎng)定價(jià)規(guī)則的影響,分析了定價(jià)規(guī)則的變化如何影響能源市場(chǎng)中進(jìn)口國(guó)和出口國(guó)之間的政治地位和政治權(quán)力,不同的定價(jià)規(guī)則如何使頁(yè)巖革命的影響在不同地區(qū)表現(xiàn)程度不同,并為如何借助頁(yè)巖革命的影響打破“亞洲溢價(jià)”提出具體建議。
[Abstract]:The shale revolution has transformed the United States from a net importer of energy into a net exporter of energy, redefining the scope of commercially exploitable energy with technological innovations, and providing a new way of thinking about the analysis of energy markets. Ten years ago, in the era of high oil prices, it was thought that fossil energy was non-renewable and would be exhausted. And the shale revolution has shown that technological advances can turn previously commercially unexploitable energy into exploitable energy, and that there is still a need for the development of combustible ice mining after the shale revolution, followed by renewable energy technologies for combustible ice mining. And as energy efficiency increases and global energy consumption reaches a certain peak, the shale revolution reconstructs the map of global energy reserves. It also upended the conventional wisdom about energy markets in the era of high oil prices a decade ago. It has traditionally been thought that low oil prices would boost economic growth. After the shale revolution, only a few countries, such as India, grew because of lower oil prices. The development of energy politics no longer follows past experience. In Syria, Libya, political turmoil, the rise of the Islamic State, but oil prices are falling. The Saudis, who traditionally maintain oil prices by cutting production, refused to do so in 2015. According to the International Energy Agency (IEA), Energy security refers to "uninterrupted access to energy within the limits of affordability". Energy prices are an important component of energy security. Under the influence of the shale revolution, the world oil and gas market has changed from a seller's market to a buyer's market. The bargaining power of energy-importing countries has been enhanced, and it is difficult for oil and gas exporters to use the interruption of energy supply as an "energy weapon" in the international political arena. On the contrary, against a backdrop of a depressed international economy, Energy-exporting countries with a single economic structure need to rely on energy-importing countries to expand their markets and increase their revenues. But the increase in the status of energy-importing countries varies from region to region. This is mainly subject to different pricing rules formed by different regions for different geographical and historical reasons. This paper analyzes which of the changes in the energy market in recent years have been caused by the shale revolution. The impact of the shale revolution on energy security and economic security in the United States, traditional energy exporters and major energy importers, respectively, was examined. It also analyzes the specific behavior and possible behavior direction of the shale revolution in various countries. This paper focuses on the impact of the shale revolution on the pricing rules of the major energy markets. Analyzing how changes in pricing rules affect political status and political power between importing and exporting countries in energy markets, and how different pricing rules make the impact of the shale revolution manifest differently in different regions, And how to use the impact of the shale revolution to break the "Asian premium" specific recommendations.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：遼寧大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2017
【分類號(hào)】：F416.22;D871.2

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