本文選題：人口流動　切入點：婚姻穩(wěn)定性　出處：《浙江大學(xué)》2016年博士論文　論文類型：學(xué)位論文

【摘要】：改革開放以來,我國離婚率逐年遞增,生育水平迅速下降。其中,人口流動特別是農(nóng)村人口的大規(guī)模流動,被認(rèn)為是影響婚姻穩(wěn)定性和生育率的重要因素之一。相關(guān)研究大多表明,流動人口家庭的離婚率高于非流動家庭,而生育率低于非流動家庭。這些文獻一般圍繞著“婚姻穩(wěn)定性-人口流動效應(yīng)”或“生育率-人口流動效應(yīng)”的測量展開,較少對兩者之間因果關(guān)系的形成和傳導(dǎo)機制進行分析和識別,也缺乏對生育率與婚姻穩(wěn)定性之間聯(lián)系的考慮。由于婚姻穩(wěn)定性與生育率之間本身存在某種程度的相關(guān)性,單獨分析人口流動與婚姻穩(wěn)定性或生育水平的關(guān)系都是片面的。本文的創(chuàng)新之處,在于試圖彌補現(xiàn)有研究的不足,嘗試?yán)媒?jīng)濟學(xué)研究方法來系統(tǒng)分析人口流動對婚姻穩(wěn)定性與生育率的影響。本文的主要研究任務(wù)和目標(biāo)是,剖析人口流動影響婚姻和生育決策的微觀機制,以及人口流動對婚姻穩(wěn)定性與生育率相關(guān)性影響的機理,加深我們對“家庭婚育-人口流動”問題的認(rèn)識。本文對Junichiro Ishida的離婚模型進行拓展,構(gòu)建起一個包含多參數(shù)的婚姻穩(wěn)定模型,分析了人口流動在社會評價、再婚市場規(guī)模、匹配概率和搜尋成本等方面對婚姻穩(wěn)定性影響的機制以及這些機制產(chǎn)生的條件,并通過比較分析,總結(jié)得出不同人口流動方式影響婚姻穩(wěn)定性的結(jié)果。同時,本文還根據(jù)Becker的生育成本效用理論,建立起一個包含生育意愿等參數(shù)的生育模型,直觀呈現(xiàn)了工資率、生育投入價格、生育意愿與生育率之間的聯(lián)系和影響機制。在將生育意愿內(nèi)生化后,分析得出了人口流動使得工資和生育投入價格升高,導(dǎo)致生育意愿下降,而生育率受生育意愿下降、工資和生育投入價格上升等因素影響,也隨之降低�？紤]到婚姻穩(wěn)定性與生育率之間存在的相關(guān)性,本文還引入婚姻穩(wěn)定性參數(shù),對生育模型進行了修訂和拓展。在婚姻穩(wěn)定性內(nèi)生的情況下,婚姻穩(wěn)定性與生育率存在一個穩(wěn)定的均衡解。當(dāng)婚姻穩(wěn)定性偏離均衡狀態(tài),生育決策產(chǎn)生反饋(或自發(fā)調(diào)節(jié))效應(yīng),即通過增加生育數(shù)量提高婚姻穩(wěn)定性,生育率也維持在原來的水平。通過分析可得,人口流動對均衡的影響存在兩種機制,一方面,人口流動降低生育意愿,生育的調(diào)節(jié)機制失效；另一方面,人口流動使得婚姻穩(wěn)定性下降,進而降低生育率。在這兩種機制的共同傳導(dǎo)下,流動人口的均衡生育水平大大降低。在具體的實證分析中,本文利用CGSS受訪者對兩性關(guān)系的看法來測量婚姻穩(wěn)定性。結(jié)論表明,兩性觀念越開放,婚姻穩(wěn)定性越低。人口流動與兩性觀念交互項對生育率影響的回歸結(jié)果顯示,農(nóng)村非流動人口的兩性觀念對生育率沒有影響,而流動人口的兩性觀念對生育率具有顯著影響�？傮w上,在當(dāng)前人口老齡化加速和全面放開二孩政策的背景下,將入口流動對婚姻穩(wěn)定性和生育率的影響置于統(tǒng)一框架下進行研究,是一個有益的嘗試,具有一定的理論價值和現(xiàn)實意義。
[Abstract]:Since the reform and opening up, China's divorce rate is increasing year by year, rapid decline in fertility level. Among them, the population flow especially the large-scale flow of the rural population, is considered to be one of the important factors affecting the stability of marriage and fertility. Most researches show that the floating population family divorce rate higher than non migrant families, while the birth rate is lower than the non flow family. These literature generally around the "measuring stability of marriage - population effect" or "fertility rate - the population flow effect", less on the formation of the causal relationship between the two and the conduction mechanism analysis and recognition, but also the lack of relationship between fertility and marital stability considerations. Due to the stability of marriage and family the rate itself has some degree of correlation, the relationship between individual analysis of population mobility and the stability of marriage or family level are one-sided. The innovation of this paper, Is trying to compensate for the lack of existing research, trying to analysis the influence of population floating on the stability of marriage and fertility in the use of research methods in economics. The main research tasks and goals, analyze the effect of population mobility mechanism of marriage and childbearing decisions, and population migration on marital stability and fertility influence mechanism, deepen our understanding of "family marriage - population flow problem. The model of Junichiro Ishida divorce to expand, build a stable marriage model with multi parameters analysis, evaluation of population flow in the society, remarriage market scale, influence mechanism of matching probability and search cost and other aspects of marriage and stability conditions of these mechanisms and, through the comparative analysis, summarizes the flow of different population affect marital stability results. At the same time, this paper also root According to the fertility cost utility theory of Becker, establishes a growth model including fertility desire and other parameters, presents intuitive wage rates, fertility input prices, link between fertility and fertility intention and influence mechanism. The endogenous fertility desire, analysis of the population flow makes wages and input prices increased growth that lead to fertility decline, while the birth rate by the fertility decline, wages and fertility, increasing input prices and other factors, are also reduced. Considering the correlation between the stability of marriage and fertility, this paper also introduced the marriage stability parameters on the growth model was revised and expanded. In the case of endogenous marriage stability the stability of marriage and fertility, there is a stable equilibrium solution. When the deviation from the equilibrium state of marital stability, family decision feedback (or spontaneous adjustment) effect, namely by increasing The number of births to improve the stability of marriage, the birth rate is maintained at the original level. Through the analysis, there are two kinds of migration mechanism of equilibrium on the one hand, the population flow reduced fertility desire, the failure mechanism of fertility; on the other hand, the population flow makes marriage stability decreases, thereby reducing the fertility rate in common. The two conduction mechanism, equilibrium fertility level of the floating population is greatly reduced. In the empirical analysis, this paper views on relationships to measure marital stability by CGSS. The conclusion shows that the respondents, two of the concept of marriage more open, the lower the stability. The results of population mobility and the concept of gender interaction regression effect on fertility the rate of display, rural non sexual concept of floating population on fertility rate has no effect, and the sexual concept of floating population on fertility rate has a significant impact. On the whole, in the current people Under the background of accelerated and comprehensive liberalization of the two child policy, it is a useful attempt to study the impact of entry flow on marital stability and fertility rate under a unified framework, which has certain theoretical and practical significance.

【學(xué)位授予單位】：浙江大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級別】：博士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2016
【分類號】：D669.1
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本文編號：1617672