【摘要】：通過化解庫存量對需求產(chǎn)能進(jìn)行預(yù)測,能夠有效解決我國產(chǎn)業(yè)發(fā)展中的產(chǎn)能過剩的問題。對需求產(chǎn)能的預(yù)測,需要給出庫存消化均衡因子,得到各個(gè)去庫存區(qū)域相似性矩陣,完成對產(chǎn)能需求的預(yù)測。傳統(tǒng)方法先獲取庫存預(yù)測指標(biāo)權(quán)重,得到需求產(chǎn)能預(yù)測指標(biāo)的區(qū)域相似性矩陣,但由于得到的矩陣參數(shù)混亂,導(dǎo)致預(yù)測精度低。提出基于加權(quán)偏離度統(tǒng)計(jì)的化解庫存量的需求產(chǎn)能預(yù)測。依據(jù)去庫存的約束的不同,結(jié)合調(diào)控對投機(jī)性需求的經(jīng)驗(yàn)合理選擇變量的權(quán)重,計(jì)算變量的加權(quán)偏離度,得到去庫存的性能預(yù)測指標(biāo),提取表征去庫存狀態(tài)的特征向量,給出去庫存區(qū)域內(nèi)庫存消化均衡因子,組建評價(jià)各個(gè)去庫存區(qū)域相似性矩陣,完成需求產(chǎn)能的預(yù)測。仿真證明,選用方法預(yù)測精度和穩(wěn)定性較高,可以為發(fā)展地方經(jīng)濟(jì)提供有力的依據(jù)。
[Abstract]:By resolving the inventory to predict the demand capacity, we can effectively solve the problem of overcapacity in the industrial development of our country. For the prediction of demand capacity, it is necessary to give the equilibrium factor of inventory digestion, obtain the similarity matrix of each de-inventory area, and complete the prediction of capacity demand. The traditional method first obtains the weight of inventory forecasting index and obtains the regional similarity matrix of demand capacity forecasting index, but because of the confusion of the obtained matrix parameters, the prediction accuracy is low. A demand capacity forecast based on weighted deviation statistics is proposed to solve the inventory. According to the different constraints of de-inventory, combined with the experience of regulating and controlling speculative demand, the weight of variables is reasonably selected, the weighted deviation degree of variables is calculated, the performance prediction index of de-inventory is obtained, the characteristic vector that represents the state of de-inventory is extracted, the inventory digestion equilibrium factor in inventory area is given, the similarity matrix for evaluating each de-inventory area is established, and the prediction of demand capacity is completed. The simulation results show that the prediction accuracy and stability of the selected method are high, which can provide a powerful basis for the development of local economy.
【作者單位】： 江西科技師范大學(xué)數(shù)字化社會與地方文化發(fā)展中心;
【基金】：2014年江西省藝術(shù)科學(xué)規(guī)劃項(xiàng)目(YG2014065)
【分類號】：O227

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