【摘要】：在不確定環(huán)境組合預(yù)測(cè)中,用模糊權(quán)重系數(shù)更能體現(xiàn)各單項(xiàng)預(yù)測(cè)方法的客觀表現(xiàn)。文章提出一種新的權(quán)重系數(shù)為三角模糊數(shù)的組合預(yù)測(cè)方法。首先建立以組合預(yù)測(cè)精確度指數(shù)最小為準(zhǔn)則的模糊加權(quán)組合預(yù)測(cè)模型,為了避免樣本數(shù)據(jù)中極端值對(duì)模型的影響,對(duì)模型進(jìn)行改進(jìn),提出帶有0-1變量的模糊加權(quán)組合預(yù)測(cè)模型。進(jìn)一步考慮到單項(xiàng)預(yù)測(cè)方法在不同時(shí)刻的表現(xiàn)有所差異,建立基于誘導(dǎo)有序模糊加權(quán)平均(IOFWA)算子的模糊變權(quán)組合預(yù)測(cè)模型,該模型不僅能克服極端值的影響,而且具有更高的預(yù)測(cè)精確度。并實(shí)證驗(yàn)證了該方法的適用性和靈活性。
[Abstract]:In uncertain environmental combination forecasting, fuzzy weight coefficient can better reflect the objective performance of each individual prediction method. In this paper, a new combined forecasting method with triangular fuzzy number with weight coefficient is proposed. Firstly, a fuzzy weighted combination forecasting model based on the minimum accuracy index of combined forecasting is established. In order to avoid the influence of extreme values in sample data on the model, the model is improved. A fuzzy weighted combination prediction model with 0 鈮，

本文編號(hào)：2486001