目標威脅評估的動態(tài)突變排序法
發(fā)布時間：2018-12-30 21:36
【摘要】：針對目標威脅評估過程難以與目標動態(tài)態(tài)勢相結(jié)合以及已有評估方法大多需要確定各指標權(quán)重而過多依賴專家經(jīng)驗的問題,將時間序列賦權(quán)與突變理論相結(jié)合,提出了目標威脅評估的動態(tài)突變排序法。該方法采用泊松分布逆形式對時間序列進行賦權(quán),綜合考慮了當前時刻和之前時刻的目標關(guān)聯(lián)信息;在突變理論基礎(chǔ)上抽象出了突變排序的思想,將目標威脅評估指標體系中下層指標對上層指標的作用歸因為控制變量對狀態(tài)變量的作用,并采用歸一化公式對作用程度進行求解,依此方式由底層往上逐層推進最終得到目標威脅評估值。實例仿真結(jié)果表明,動態(tài)突變排序法不需確定各指標權(quán)重,計算過程簡潔高效,可操作性強,且綜合考慮了目標的動態(tài)威脅態(tài)勢,評估結(jié)果更加合理,具有一定的實用價值。
[Abstract]:Aiming at the problem that the process of target threat assessment is difficult to combine with the dynamic situation of the target and that most of the existing evaluation methods need to determine the weights of each index and rely too much on expert experience, the time series weighting is combined with the catastrophe theory. A dynamic mutation ranking method for target threat assessment is proposed. The method uses the inverse form of Poisson distribution to weight the time series and synthetically considers the target association information of the current time and the previous time. On the basis of catastrophe theory, the idea of mutation ranking is abstracted, and the effect of lower level index on upper level index in target threat assessment index system is attributed to the effect of control variable on state variable. The normalized formula is used to solve the degree of action, and the target threat assessment value is obtained from the bottom layer to the top layer by this way. The simulation results show that the dynamic catastrophe sequencing method does not need to determine the weight of each index, the calculation process is simple and efficient, the maneuverability is strong, and the dynamic threat situation of the target is considered comprehensively. The evaluation result is more reasonable and has certain practical value.
【作者單位】： 空軍工程大學(xué)裝備管理與安全工程學(xué)院;空軍工程大學(xué)科研部研究中心;
【分類號】：O192;O223
[Abstract]:Aiming at the problem that the process of target threat assessment is difficult to combine with the dynamic situation of the target and that most of the existing evaluation methods need to determine the weights of each index and rely too much on expert experience, the time series weighting is combined with the catastrophe theory. A dynamic mutation ranking method for target threat assessment is proposed. The method uses the inverse form of Poisson distribution to weight the time series and synthetically considers the target association information of the current time and the previous time. On the basis of catastrophe theory, the idea of mutation ranking is abstracted, and the effect of lower level index on upper level index in target threat assessment index system is attributed to the effect of control variable on state variable. The normalized formula is used to solve the degree of action, and the target threat assessment value is obtained from the bottom layer to the top layer by this way. The simulation results show that the dynamic catastrophe sequencing method does not need to determine the weight of each index, the calculation process is simple and efficient, the maneuverability is strong, and the dynamic threat situation of the target is considered comprehensively. The evaluation result is more reasonable and has certain practical value.
【作者單位】： 空軍工程大學(xué)裝備管理與安全工程學(xué)院;空軍工程大學(xué)科研部研究中心;
【分類號】：O192;O223
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