【摘要】：風(fēng)險(xiǎn)差是流行病學(xué)中重要的指標(biāo)之一,常用來比較兩種治療或兩種診斷的有效性.因此,風(fēng)險(xiǎn)差區(qū)間的精確估計(jì)對(duì)流行病病情的診斷以及治療方案的選擇有很重要的意義.結(jié)合Poisson抽樣的優(yōu)點(diǎn)以及慢性病發(fā)病周期長和發(fā)病率低的特點(diǎn),利用鞍點(diǎn)逼近方法來構(gòu)造了Poisson分布下風(fēng)險(xiǎn)差的置信區(qū)間.同時(shí),通過實(shí)例和Monte Carlo模擬對(duì)傳統(tǒng)的四種區(qū)間構(gòu)造方法進(jìn)行評(píng)價(jià).模擬結(jié)果表明:在小樣本情況下,鞍點(diǎn)逼近方法得到的置信區(qū)間大多數(shù)能保證覆蓋率近似于期望的置信水平并且使得區(qū)間長度最短,是一種很好的置信區(qū)間構(gòu)造方法.
[Abstract]:Risk difference is one of the most important indicators in epidemiology and is often used to compare the effectiveness of two treatments or two diagnoses. Therefore, the accurate estimation of the interval of risk difference is very important for the diagnosis of epidemic disease and the choice of treatment scheme. Combined with the advantages of Poisson sampling and the characteristics of long period and low incidence of chronic diseases, the confidence interval of risk difference under Poisson distribution is constructed by using saddle point approximation method. At the same time, the traditional four interval construction methods are evaluated by examples and Monte Carlo simulation. The simulation results show that most of the confidence intervals obtained by saddle point approximation method are similar to the expected confidence level and the interval length is the shortest in the case of small samples. It is a good confidence interval construction method.
【作者單位】： 蘭州財(cái)經(jīng)大學(xué)統(tǒng)計(jì)學(xué)院;中國人民大學(xué)應(yīng)用統(tǒng)計(jì)科學(xué)研究中心中國人民大學(xué)統(tǒng)計(jì)學(xué)院;
【基金】：教育部哲學(xué)社會(huì)科學(xué)研究重大課題攻關(guān)項(xiàng)目(15JZD015);教育部人文社會(huì)科學(xué)重點(diǎn)研究基地重大項(xiàng)目(15JJD910001) 北京市社會(huì)科學(xué)基金重大項(xiàng)目(15ZDA17) 國家社會(huì)科學(xué)基金重點(diǎn)項(xiàng)目(13AZD064) 中央高校建設(shè)世界一流大學(xué)(學(xué)科)和特色發(fā)展引導(dǎo)專項(xiàng)資金支持(15XNL008) 全國統(tǒng)計(jì)科研計(jì)劃項(xiàng)目(2016LD03) 蘭州財(cái)經(jīng)大學(xué)“興隆學(xué)者特聘計(jì)劃”
【分類號(hào)】：O212.1

【相似文獻(xiàn)】

相關(guān)期刊論文 前10條

1 胡祥;吳濤;李健平;;Poisson分布的參數(shù)函數(shù)無偏估計(jì)[J];重慶工商大學(xué)學(xué)報(bào)(自然科學(xué)版);2012年07期

2 范洪福;;一類Poisson分布的數(shù)學(xué)模型[J];大學(xué)數(shù)學(xué);2011年04期

3 胡月;多項(xiàng)分布與多元Poisson分布[J];浙江科技學(xué)院學(xué)報(bào);2005年03期

4 王亮,孫紹榮,李秀森,李世s，

本文編號(hào)：2388031