發(fā)布時(shí)間：2018-06-08 11:01

  本文選題：城市軌道交通 + 災(zāi)害鏈　； 參考：《北京交通大學(xué)》2017年碩士論文

【摘要】：近年來(lái)城市軌道交通發(fā)展不斷加速,在現(xiàn)代城市公共交通中扮演著越來(lái)越重要的角色,隨之而來(lái),人們對(duì)城市軌道交通的安全狀況的重視程度也相應(yīng)提高。但是由于城市軌道交通是一個(gè)相對(duì)復(fù)雜并且聯(lián)系緊密的系統(tǒng),其災(zāi)害事件往往在極短時(shí)間內(nèi)并發(fā)或多發(fā),形成鏈?zhǔn)交蚓W(wǎng)狀結(jié)構(gòu),從而造成更大的損失。因此對(duì)城市軌道交通災(zāi)害鏈?zhǔn)骄W(wǎng)絡(luò)的研究具有重要意義。本文基于災(zāi)害鏈及復(fù)雜網(wǎng)絡(luò)相關(guān)理論,以城市軌道交通災(zāi)害事件作為研究對(duì)象,通過量化災(zāi)害鏈中事件間的連鎖反應(yīng),給出了其鏈?zhǔn)骄W(wǎng)絡(luò)建模描述,隨后針對(duì)該網(wǎng)絡(luò)模型進(jìn)行評(píng)價(jià)分析,實(shí)現(xiàn)對(duì)城市軌道交通災(zāi)害發(fā)生后的宏觀預(yù)警并給出了救援建議。首先,本文利用HAZOP分析方法合并簡(jiǎn)化部分城市軌道交通災(zāi)害事件,將其抽象為網(wǎng)絡(luò)模型節(jié)點(diǎn);通過構(gòu)建共現(xiàn)矩陣,利用Jaccard指數(shù)量化災(zāi)害鏈?zhǔn)骄W(wǎng)絡(luò)模型節(jié)點(diǎn)之間的相關(guān)關(guān)系,構(gòu)建城市軌道交通災(zāi)害無(wú)向網(wǎng)絡(luò);隨后針對(duì)城市軌道交通災(zāi)害事件的時(shí)間跨度及災(zāi)害發(fā)生的順序性特點(diǎn),優(yōu)化了一種引發(fā)率計(jì)算方法,構(gòu)建城市軌道交通災(zāi)害鏈?zhǔn)接邢蚣訖?quán)網(wǎng)絡(luò)模型。然后,通過選取節(jié)點(diǎn)的度、點(diǎn)權(quán)、點(diǎn)介數(shù)、平均災(zāi)害路徑長(zhǎng)度、邊介數(shù)、網(wǎng)絡(luò)連通度作為城市軌道交通災(zāi)害鏈?zhǔn)骄W(wǎng)絡(luò)評(píng)價(jià)指標(biāo),構(gòu)建了城市軌道交通災(zāi)害鏈?zhǔn)骄W(wǎng)絡(luò)評(píng)價(jià)指標(biāo)體系,并利用pajek及MATLAB軟件對(duì)指標(biāo)進(jìn)行獲取。從“節(jié)點(diǎn)重要性”和“邊的脆弱性”兩個(gè)角度對(duì)網(wǎng)絡(luò)進(jìn)行評(píng)價(jià),并給出網(wǎng)絡(luò)中“節(jié)點(diǎn)重要性”和“邊的脆弱性”具體算法。最后,以統(tǒng)計(jì)收集的城市軌道交通災(zāi)害歷史數(shù)據(jù)為例進(jìn)行算例驗(yàn)證,依據(jù)本文所提出的建模方法構(gòu)建城市軌道交通災(zāi)害鏈?zhǔn)骄W(wǎng)絡(luò)模型并進(jìn)行評(píng)價(jià)分析,以便更準(zhǔn)確的找到網(wǎng)絡(luò)中最重要的節(jié)點(diǎn)以及與節(jié)點(diǎn)相連脆弱度最高的邊,更大程度上破壞災(zāi)害鏈?zhǔn)骄W(wǎng)絡(luò)結(jié)構(gòu),為相關(guān)部門、消防人員在城市軌道交通災(zāi)害事件發(fā)生時(shí)爭(zhēng)取更多的救援時(shí)間,以及為斷鏈減災(zāi)工作提供可行性建議。本文的創(chuàng)新工作在于,提出了城市軌道交通災(zāi)害鏈?zhǔn)骄W(wǎng)絡(luò)模型的構(gòu)建方法,設(shè)計(jì)引發(fā)率的計(jì)算方法以量化災(zāi)害間關(guān)聯(lián)關(guān)系,仿照無(wú)向加權(quán)聚類系數(shù)改進(jìn)提出了適用于有向加權(quán)網(wǎng)絡(luò)的節(jié)點(diǎn)重要性算法,豐富了城市軌道交通災(zāi)害鏈的相關(guān)理論。
[Abstract]:In recent years, the development of urban rail transit has been accelerating, which plays a more and more important role in modern urban public transport. With this, people pay more attention to the safety of urban rail transit. However, because urban rail transit is a relatively complex and closely connected system, its disaster events often occur simultaneously or repeatedly in a very short time, and form chain or network structure, resulting in greater losses. Therefore, the study of urban rail transit disaster chain network is of great significance. Based on the theory of disaster chain and complex network, this paper takes the urban rail transit disaster event as the research object, and gives the chain network modeling description by quantifying the chain reaction between the events in the disaster chain. Then the network model is evaluated and analyzed to realize the macro warning of urban rail transit disaster and give some rescue suggestions. Firstly, this paper uses HAZOP analysis method to merge and simplify some urban rail transit disaster events and abstract them into network model nodes, and by constructing co-occurrence matrix, using Jaccard index to quantify the correlation between disaster chain network model nodes. The undirected network of urban rail transit disaster is constructed, and then, according to the time span of urban rail transit disaster events and the characteristics of the sequence of disasters, a method to calculate the initiation rate is optimized. The urban rail transit disaster chain weighted network model is constructed. Then, by selecting the degree of nodes, point weight, point number, average disaster path length, edge medium number, network connectivity as the evaluation index of urban rail transit disaster chain network. The evaluation index system of urban rail transit disaster chain network is constructed, and the index is obtained by using pajek and MATLAB software. This paper evaluates the network from the point of view of "node importance" and "edge vulnerability", and gives the algorithm of "node importance" and "edge vulnerability" in the network. Finally, taking the historical data of urban rail transit disaster collected by statistics as an example to verify, according to the modeling method proposed in this paper, the chain network model of urban rail transit disaster is constructed, and the evaluation analysis is carried out. In order to more accurately find the most important nodes in the network and the most vulnerable edges connected to the nodes, and to a greater extent destroy the disaster chain network structure, for the relevant departments, Firefighters strive for more rescue time when urban rail transit disaster events occur, and provide feasible suggestions for disaster reduction work. The innovative work of this paper is to put forward the construction method of urban rail transit disaster chain network model and design a method to calculate the initiation rate to quantify the correlation between disasters. Based on the improvement of undirected weighted clustering coefficient, a node importance algorithm for directed weighted networks is proposed, which enriches the theory of disaster chain of urban rail transit.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：北京交通大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2017
【分類號(hào)】：U298;O157.5

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本文編號(hào)：1995571