本文關(guān)鍵詞： 病死率 個體型數(shù)據(jù) 數(shù)值模擬　出處：《科學(xué)技術(shù)與工程》2017年24期 　論文類型：期刊論文

【摘要】：探討四種病死率估計模型在疫情初期,對不同疫情類型、疫情規(guī)模下估計效能的差異。根據(jù)病死率恒定與逐漸下降兩種模擬設(shè)計,以樣本量為1 500及200分別完成四種估計模型、兩個真實估計值在四個時間點的1 000次獨立估計。病死率恒定時,Modified Kaplan-Meier法和基于gamma分布的參數(shù)混合模型的方法具有明顯優(yōu)勢;病死率逐漸降低時,早期Modified Kaplan-Meier法、基于gamma分布的參數(shù)混合模型的方法以及治愈—死亡危險率比半?yún)?shù)模型的方法均能較理想估計病死率,后期效果欠佳,且敏感性低;但Modified Kaplan-Meier法和SIR模型與競爭風險模型相結(jié)合的估計模型的方法在后期無論在精度還是敏感性都較好。樣本量的差異對模型估計效能影響不大。說明Modified Kaplan-Meier法和基于gamma分布的參數(shù)混合模型的方法在病死率恒定時以及逐漸遞減的早期能較準確估計病死率,在逐漸遞減后期Kaplan-Meier法和SIR模型與競爭風險模型相結(jié)合的估計模型的方法效果有優(yōu)勢;疫情規(guī)模對其影響不大。
[Abstract]:In the initial stage of epidemic situation, four kinds of mortality estimation models were studied. According to the two simulation designs of constant mortality and gradual decline, four estimation models were completed with sample size of 1 500 and 200, respectively, for different epidemic types and epidemic scale. 1 000 independent estimates of the two true estimators at four time points. The modified Kaplan-Meier method and the mixed model based on gamma distribution have obvious advantages when the mortality is constant, and the early Modified Kaplan-Meier method is used when the mortality decreases gradually. The method of parameter mixing model based on gamma distribution and the method of cure death risk rate than half parameter model can estimate the death rate better than that of the half parameter model, the late effect is not good, and the sensitivity is low. However, the Modified Kaplan-Meier method and the SIR model combined with the competitive risk model have better accuracy and sensitivity in the later stage. The difference of sample size has little effect on the estimation effectiveness of the model. The results show that the Modified Kaplan-Meier method and the gamma based method have little effect on the estimation effectiveness of the model. The method of distributed parametric mixed model can estimate the mortality more accurately when the mortality is constant and at the early stage of gradual decline. In the later stage of gradual decline, the Kaplan-Meier method and the SIR model combined with the competitive risk model have advantages in the effectiveness of the method, but the scale of epidemic situation has little effect on it.
【作者單位】： 南方醫(yī)科大學(xué)公共衛(wèi)生學(xué)院生物統(tǒng)計學(xué)系;西安文理學(xué)院數(shù)學(xué)系;暨南大學(xué)經(jīng)濟學(xué)院統(tǒng)計學(xué)系;
【基金】：西安市科技計劃(CXY1531WL40) 國家自然科學(xué)基金(81202288)資助
【分類號】：O212.1;R181.3
，

本文編號：1518763