高速公路交通事故起數(shù)時空分析模型
本文關(guān)鍵詞:高速公路交通事故起數(shù)時空分析模型,,由筆耕文化傳播整理發(fā)布。
交通運(yùn)輸工程學(xué)報(bào) 2012
高速公路交通事故起數(shù)時空分析模型
, PP. 93-99
馬壯林,邵春福,胡大偉,馬社強(qiáng)
Keywords: 交通工程,交通事故起數(shù),時空分析模型,泊松回歸模型,負(fù)二項(xiàng)回歸模型,零堆積泊松回歸模型,零堆積負(fù)二項(xiàng)回歸模型
Full-Text Cite this paper Add to My Lib
Abstract:為了分析交通事故起數(shù)與時間、道路空間結(jié)構(gòu)及交通運(yùn)行環(huán)境等潛在影響因素之間的關(guān)系,從時間和空間角度選擇9個自變量,分別從路段長度一致和路段坡度一致2個角度,構(gòu)建交通事故起數(shù)時段、周日和月分布模型。以某典型交通事故多發(fā)段為例,分別運(yùn)用泊松回歸模型、負(fù)二項(xiàng)回歸模型、零堆積泊松回歸模型和零堆積負(fù)二項(xiàng)回歸模型擬合交通事故起數(shù)時段、周日和月分布模型,根據(jù)模型的擬合優(yōu)度檢驗(yàn),分別確定3個模型的最佳形式,從而構(gòu)建交通事故起數(shù)時空分析模型。研究結(jié)果表明從AIC準(zhǔn)則和BIC準(zhǔn)則來看,基于路段長度一致的交通事故起數(shù)時段、月分布模型采用負(fù)二項(xiàng)回歸模型擬合效果較好,其他模型選擇泊松回歸模型擬合效果較好;基于路段長度一致的交通事故起數(shù)時段、周日、月分布模型的預(yù)測誤差小于基于路段坡度一致的交通事故起數(shù)時段、周日、月分布模型。
References[1] 陳 斌,袁 偉,付 銳,等.連續(xù)長大下坡路段交通事故特征分析[J].交通運(yùn)輸工程學(xué)報(bào),2009,9(4):75-78,84. CHEN Bin, YUAN Wei, FU Rui, et al. Analysis of traffic accident characteristic on continuous long downgrade section[J]. Journal of Traffic and Transportation Engineering, 2009, 9(4): 75-78, 84.(in Chinese)
[2] MIAOU S P, LUM H. Modeling vehicle accidents and highway geometric design relationships[J]. Accident Analysis and Prevention, 1993, 25(6): 689-709.
[3] KRAUS J F, ANDERSON C L, ARZEMANIAN S, et al. Epidemiological aspects of fatal and severe injury urban freeway crashes[J]. Accident Analysis and Prevention, 1993, 25(3): 229-239.
[4] HAUER E, NG J C N, LOVELL J. Estimation of safety at signalized intersections(with discussion and closure)[J]. Transportation Research Record, 1988(1185): 48-61.
[5] HINDE J, DEMETRIO C G B. Overdispersion: models and estimation[J]. Computational Statistics and Data Analysis, 1998, 27(2): 151-170.
[6] LEE J, MANNERING F. Impact of roadside features on the frequency and severity of run-off-roadway accidents: an empirical analysis[J]. Accident Analysis and Prevention, 2002, 34(2): 149-161.
[7] KUMARA S S P, CHIN H C. Modeling accident occurrence at signalized tee intersections with special emphasis on excess zeros[J]. Traffic Injury Prevention, 2003, 4(1): 53-57.
[8] LORD D, WASHINGTON S P, IVAN J N. Poisson, Poisson-gamma and zero-inflated regression models of motor vehicle crashes: balancing statistical fit and theory[J]. Accident Analysis and Prevention, 2005, 37(1): 35-46.
[9] PERCO P. Influence of the general character of horizontal alignment on operating speed of two-lane rural roads[J]. Transportation Research Record, 2008(2075): 16-23.
[10] 羅石貴,周 偉.道路交通事故多發(fā)點(diǎn)鑒定方法探討[J].西安公路交通大學(xué)學(xué)報(bào),1999,19(1):30-33. LUO Shi-gui, ZHOU Wei. Research on the identification of road accident blackspots[J]. Journal of Xi'an Highway University, 1999, 19(1): 30-33.(in Chinese)
[11] HAUER E, KONONOV J, ALLERY B, et al. Screening the road network for sites with promise[J]. Transportation Research Record, 2002(1784): 27-32.
[12] 李相勇,張 南,張學(xué)盡,等.高速公路交通事故致因的人機(jī)工程學(xué)分析[J].公路,2003(8):108-112. LI Xiang-yong, ZHANG Nan, ZHANG Xue-jin, et al. Analy-sis of factors affecting expressway traffic accidents based on ergonomics[J]. Highway, 2003(8): 108-112.(in Chinese)
[13] 李鐵洪,吳華金.長直線接小半徑曲線公路交通事故成因及預(yù)防對策[J].中國公路學(xué)報(bào),2007,20(1):35-40. LI Tie-hong, WU Hua-jin. Causes and countermeasures of highway traffic accidents in long straight line combined with sharp curve[J]. China Journal of Highway and Transport, 2007, 20(1): 35-40.(in Chinese)
Full-Text
本文關(guān)鍵詞:高速公路交通事故起數(shù)時空分析模型,由筆耕文化傳播整理發(fā)布。
本文編號:99979
本文鏈接:http://sikaile.net/kejilunwen/jiaotonggongchenglunwen/99979.html