為了分析交通事故起數(shù)與時間、道路空間結(jié)構(gòu)及交通運(yùn)行環(huán)境等潛在影響因素之間的關(guān)系,從時間和空間角度選擇9個自變量,分別從路段長度一致和路段坡度一致2個角度,構(gòu)建交通事故起數(shù)時段、周日和月分布模型。以某典型交通事故多發(fā)段為例,分別運(yùn)用泊松回歸模型、負(fù)二項(xiàng)回歸模型、零堆積泊松回歸模型和零堆積負(fù)二項(xiàng)回歸模型擬合交通事故起數(shù)時段、周日和月分布模型,根據(jù)模型的擬合優(yōu)度檢驗(yàn),分別確定3個模型的最佳形式,從而構(gòu)建交通事故起數(shù)時空分析模型。研究結(jié)果表明從AIC準(zhǔn)則和BIC準(zhǔn)則來看,基于路段長度一致的交通事故起數(shù)時段、月分布模型采用負(fù)二項(xiàng)回歸模型擬合效果較好,其他模型選擇泊松回歸模型擬合效果較好;基于路段長度一致的交通事故起數(shù)時段、周日、月分布模型的預(yù)測誤差小于基于路段坡度一致的交通事故起數(shù)時段、周日、月分布模型。

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