【摘要】：分析了高速公路施工區(qū)合流行為特性,以行車速度與合流角度作為合流交通沖突的表征參數(shù),以沖突時間作為合流沖突風(fēng)險的度量指標(biāo),建立了高速公路施工區(qū)合流沖突風(fēng)險計算模型,確定了高速公路施工區(qū)不同安全狀態(tài)的合流沖突風(fēng)險閾值.運用灰色理論建立了高速公路施工區(qū)合流沖突預(yù)測的GM(1,1)模型,并通過合流沖突調(diào)查樣本數(shù)據(jù)對該模型進行驗證.結(jié)果表明:不同安全狀態(tài)下的高速公路施工區(qū)合流沖突風(fēng)險閾值危險、中等、安全分別為(∞,5)km/h、(3.55,5]km/h和(0,3.55]km/h;GM(1,1)高速公路施工區(qū)合流交通沖突量預(yù)測模型有效、可靠,滿足精度要求.
[Abstract]:The characteristics of confluence behavior in expressway construction area are analyzed. The angle of traffic speed and confluence is taken as the representation parameter of confluence traffic conflict, and the conflict time is taken as the measure index of confluence conflict risk. The calculation model of confluence conflict risk in expressway construction area is established, and the threshold value of confluence conflict risk in different safety state of expressway construction area is determined. The GM (1 / 1) model for prediction of confluence conflict in expressway construction area is established by using grey theory, and the model is verified by the sample data of confluence conflict investigation. The results show that the risk threshold of confluence conflict in expressway construction area under different safety conditions is moderate, and the safety is (鈭，

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