本文選題：通勤交通 + 方式選擇��； 參考：《北京交通大學》2014年博士論文

【摘要】：摘要：在我國加快城鎮(zhèn)化建設的大背景下,機動車特別是私人機動車保有量迅速增加。尤其在一些經(jīng)濟相對發(fā)達大中城市,日益突出的供需矛盾加劇了城市交通擁堵,特別是早晚高峰期間,交通出行狀況不容樂觀。解決交通擁堵問題主要思路除了加快交通基礎設施建設外,還應轉(zhuǎn)變?nèi)藗兊慕煌ǔ鲂心Ｊ健１疚囊酝ㄇ跒榍腥朦c,研究促使通勤者放棄小汽車,轉(zhuǎn)向運量大、占地少、資源利用率高的公共交通出行對緩解城市交通擁堵具有重要意義。 本文首先運用系統(tǒng)理論,將通勤出行方式選擇看成一個系統(tǒng)問題,分析了系統(tǒng)內(nèi)外因素對通勤者方式選擇決策的影響,研究了小汽車向公共交通轉(zhuǎn)移的動力、阻力,以及轉(zhuǎn)移的作用機理。通勤者是出行方式選擇的核心,根據(jù)轉(zhuǎn)移作用機理,從通勤者心理決策和出行行為特征兩方面提出個人方式選擇價值取向和活動兩個關(guān)鍵因素,利用行為調(diào)查數(shù)據(jù)研究了其與轉(zhuǎn)移的關(guān)聯(lián)關(guān)系�；诹W原理定義了轉(zhuǎn)移作用力,對交通工具(包括公共交通和小汽車)服務性能、小汽車通勤者本身對小汽車的依賴等幾個主要直接作用力進行了研究,利用力的合成、動能定理等建立了小汽車通勤向公共交通轉(zhuǎn)移意愿模型,劃分小汽車通勤者的類型,基于轉(zhuǎn)移意愿模型,利用交通調(diào)查數(shù)據(jù)比較了不同類型小汽車通勤者轉(zhuǎn)移意愿,分析了促使不同類型小汽車通勤者轉(zhuǎn)移條件的差異性。將政府和小汽車通勤者視為有限理性行為人,基于一定交通條件下通勤者轉(zhuǎn)移意愿,利用演化博弈理論研究了公交優(yōu)先政策下考慮政策制定成本以及不同通勤者間相互作用下轉(zhuǎn)移的演化均衡策略。主要研究成果包括： 第一,將通勤出行方式選擇問題看成一個系統(tǒng)問題,分析了系統(tǒng)的概念、目標、特征、構(gòu)成要素及其相互之間的關(guān)系等。研究了通勤者進行方式選擇的決策過程,分析了系統(tǒng)內(nèi)外因素對決策的影響。分析了促使小汽車通勤出行向公共交通轉(zhuǎn)移的阻力、動力,研究了小汽車通勤向公共交通轉(zhuǎn)移的作用機理。 第二,提出了個人方式選擇價值取向的概念,指出其是出行者進行方式選擇時體現(xiàn)出的一種內(nèi)在價值追求的表述,是影響方式選擇行為的內(nèi)在決定因素。分析了影響個人方式選擇價值取向的主要因素,分析了交通工具對通勤者的主要價值,對個人方式選擇價值取向進行了調(diào)查設計。研究了通勤出行鏈概念、特征和類型,基于轉(zhuǎn)移行為調(diào)查數(shù)據(jù),利用結(jié)構(gòu)方程模型研究了通勤出行鏈、個人方式選擇價值取向?qū)D(zhuǎn)移的影響。 第三,基于力學原理,提出了轉(zhuǎn)移作用力的概念和類型,從出行時效、便利、舒適、經(jīng)濟等角度研究了公共交通及小汽車服務性能的計算指標,在此基礎上研究了公共交通和小汽車所提供服務對小汽車通勤者的作用力。考慮通勤者個人方式選擇價值取向及活動,研究了通勤者對小汽車依賴力。以小汽車通勤者為受力主體,對各作用力進行了力的合成�；趧幽芏ɡ斫⒘诵∑囅蚬步煌ㄞD(zhuǎn)移意愿模型。 第四,從個人屬性上按年齡和收入,劃分小汽車通勤者類型,利用小汽車通勤向公共交通轉(zhuǎn)移行為和意向調(diào)查數(shù)據(jù)分析不同類型小汽車通勤者轉(zhuǎn)移行為和意向特征,基于轉(zhuǎn)移意愿模型,利用轉(zhuǎn)移意向調(diào)查數(shù)據(jù)對不同類型小汽車通勤者轉(zhuǎn)移意愿進行了比較研究,分析了為促使不同類型小汽車通勤者轉(zhuǎn)移條件的差異性。 第五,闡述了公交優(yōu)先政策的內(nèi)涵、措施,研究了公交優(yōu)先政策促進小汽車通勤轉(zhuǎn)移的演化機理,基于一定交通條件下通勤者轉(zhuǎn)移意愿,以政府和通勤者群體為博弈參與人,建立考慮政策制定成本下的演化博弈模型,分析了通勤者轉(zhuǎn)移的六種演化均衡策略。以不同小汽車通勤者群體為博弈參與人,建立了考慮不同通勤者間相互作用的演化博弈模型,研究了通勤者相互作用下的四種演化均衡策略。以一個開通公交專用道為背景,對模型進行了算例分析。 論文的創(chuàng)新點主要體現(xiàn)在以下幾個方面： (1)將通勤出行方式選擇看成一個系統(tǒng)問題,分析系統(tǒng)內(nèi)外因素對轉(zhuǎn)移的影響,研究了通勤出行方式選擇的決策過程,分析了轉(zhuǎn)移的阻力、動力以及轉(zhuǎn)移的作用機理。 (2)提出個人方式選擇價值取向的概念、影響因素等,分析了交通工具對出行者具有的主要價值,對方式選擇價值取向進行了調(diào)查設計,研究了通勤出行鏈的概念、特征、類型等,利用結(jié)構(gòu)方程模型研究了個人方式選擇價值取向、活動與方式轉(zhuǎn)移的關(guān)聯(lián)關(guān)系。 (3)引入物理中的力學理論,提出了轉(zhuǎn)移作用力的概念和類型。基于通勤出行方式選擇系統(tǒng)主要構(gòu)成要素,研究了小汽車、公共交通各項服務性能對通勤者的作用力、通勤者對小汽車的依賴力等幾個主要直接作用力計算模型,以小汽車通勤者為受力主體,對各項作用力進行了力的合成。利用動能定理建立小汽車通勤向公共交通轉(zhuǎn)移意愿模型。 (4)將政府和小汽車通勤者視為有限理性行為人,基于一定交通條件下通勤者轉(zhuǎn)移意愿,建立考慮政策制定成本下的演化博弈模型,分析了通勤者轉(zhuǎn)移的六種演化均衡策略。基于一定交通條件下不同類型通勤者具有的轉(zhuǎn)移意愿,建立了考慮不同通勤者間相互作用的演化博弈模型,研究了通勤者相互作用下的四種演化均衡策略。
[Abstract]:Abstract: in the context of speeding up the construction of urbanization in China, the number of motor vehicles, especially the private motor vehicles, is increasing rapidly. Especially in some relatively developed and middle cities, the increasingly prominent contradiction between supply and demand has intensified the traffic congestion in the city, especially during the peak period of the morning and evening, the traffic situation is not optimistic. The main problem of traffic congestion is to solve the problem. In addition to speeding up the construction of traffic infrastructure, we should also change the mode of traffic travel. This paper, taking commuter as a breakthrough point, studies the importance of the public transportation with high traffic volume, less land use and high utilization rate of resources to alleviate urban traffic congestion.
This paper first uses system theory to consider the choice of commuter travel mode as a systematic problem, analyzes the influence of the internal and external factors on the choice of commuters, and studies the motive force, resistance, and the mechanism of transfer. The commuter is the core of the choice of travel mode and the mechanism of the transfer function. From two aspects of commuter psychological decision-making and travel behavior characteristics, two key factors of individual mode selection value orientation and activity are proposed, and the relationship between them and transfer is studied by using behavior survey data. Based on the mechanics principle, the transfer force is defined, the service performance of traffic tools (including public transportation and car), and the commuter of the car A number of main direct forces, such as the dependence on the car, are studied. Using the force synthesis, the kinetic energy theorem and so on, the model of the transfer of car commuters to the public transport is established, the type of the commuter is divided, the transfer intention model is based on the transfer intention, and the transfer of the commuters of different types of cars is compared with the traffic survey data. The difference between the transfer conditions of the commuters of different types of cars is analyzed. The government and the commuters of the car are considered as a limited rational actor. Based on the transfer intention of the commuters under certain traffic conditions, the evolution game theory is used to study the policy making cost and the interaction of the commuters under the public transport priority policy. The evolutionary equilibrium strategy of transfer. The main research results include:
First, the choice of commuter travel mode is considered as a systematic problem, and the concept, objectives, features, components and the relationship between the commuters are analyzed. The decision-making process of the commuter selection is studied, and the influence of the internal and external factors on the decision is analyzed. The mechanism of vehicle commuting to public transport is studied.
Second, the concept of value orientation of individual mode selection is put forward. It is pointed out that it is the expression of an intrinsic value pursuit embodied in the choice of the way that the traveler carries out the choice. It is the internal determinant of the choice behavior of the way. It analyzes the main factors that affect the choice of the value orientation of the individual way, and analyses the main price of the traffic tool to the commuter. The value orientation of individual mode selection was investigated and designed. The concept, characteristics and types of commuter travel chain were studied. Based on the survey data of the transfer behavior, the impact of commuter travel chain and individual choice value orientation on the transfer was studied by the structural equation model.
Third, based on the principle of mechanics, the concept and type of transfer force are put forward. From the point of view of travel time, convenience, comfort and economy, the calculation index of the performance of public transportation and car service is studied. On this basis, the force of the service provided by public transportation and car to the commuters is studied. The personal mode of commuter is considered. The value orientation and activity are selected to study the dependence of commuters on the car. The force is synthesized by the vehicle commuter as the subject of the force. Based on the kinetic energy theorem, a model for the transfer of cars to public transport is established.
Fourth, the types of commuters are divided according to their age and income, and the transfer behavior and intention characteristics of different types of car commuters are analyzed by the transfer behavior and intention survey data of car commuters to public transportation. Based on the transfer intention model, the transfer intention survey data are used to transfer the commuters of different types of cars. A comparative study was carried out to analyze the differences in the conditions of transfer for different types of commuters.
Fifth, this paper expounds the connotation and measures of public transport priority policy, and studies the evolution mechanism of bus priority policy to promote the transfer of commuter commuter. Based on the transfer will of commuters under certain traffic conditions, the government and the commuter group are used as the game participants, and the evolutionary game model considering the policy formulation is established, and the transfer of commuters is analyzed. The six evolutionary equilibrium strategy, taking the group of commuters of different cars as game participants, established an evolutionary game model considering the interaction of different commuters, and studied four evolutionary equilibrium strategies under the interaction of commuters. A case study was carried out on the background of a public transit lane.
The innovations of the paper are mainly reflected in the following aspects:
(1) take the choice of commuter travel mode as a systematic problem, analyze the influence of the internal and external factors on the transfer, study the decision process of the choice of commuter travel mode, and analyze the mechanism of the transfer resistance, power and transfer.
(2) put forward the concept of individual choice value orientation, influence factors and so on, analyze the main value of traffic tools to travelers, investigate and design the choice value orientation, study the concept, characteristics and types of commuter travel chain, and use the structure square model to study the choice value orientation, activities and ways of individual way. The relationship of transfer.
(3) introducing the mechanics theory in physics, the concept and type of transfer force are put forward. Based on the commuter travel mode, the main components of the system are selected. The force of the car, the service performance of the public transportation to the commuter, the dependence of the commuter to the car and other main direct force calculation models are studied. Diligence is the main body of the force, and the force is synthesized. The kinetic energy theorem is used to establish the willingness model for commuting to public transport.
(4) the government and car commuters are considered as limited rational actors. Based on the transfer will of commuters under certain traffic conditions, an evolutionary game model considering the cost of policy formulation is established, and six evolutionary equilibrium strategies for commuter transfer are analyzed. Based on the transfer will of the commuters under certain traffic conditions, the test is established. Considering the interaction game between different commuters, four evolutionary equilibrium strategies for commuters interaction are studied.
【學位授予單位】：北京交通大學
【學位級別】：博士
【學位授予年份】：2014
【分類號】：U491

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