本文選題：高速公路 + 平縱組合路段　； 參考：《哈爾濱工業(yè)大學》2014年碩士論文

【摘要】：誘導道路交通事故發(fā)生的因素有許多種，其中不良的公路線形條件往往是造成交通事故發(fā)生的主要原因之一。在對公路線形的連續(xù)性、一致性和舒適性等指標進行評價中，，運行速度是重要的參考標準。運行速度作為各線形指標綜合作用的結(jié)果，對其開展相關(guān)研究，建立運行速度預測模型，對于指導公路幾何線形設(shè)計以及后續(xù)的安全性評價等工作均具有重要的理論意義與應(yīng)用價值。論文結(jié)合實際工程項目，以設(shè)計速度為100km/h的高速公路為研究對象，對高速公路上平縱組合路段的運行速度開展了預測研究工作。 首先，論文選取廣東省粵贛高速公路廣東省境內(nèi)段作為數(shù)據(jù)采集地點，制定了數(shù)據(jù)采集和提取方案。根據(jù)運行速度的定義，自由流交通狀態(tài)是運行速度的前提條件。通過對車頭時距與實測車速的關(guān)系分析，結(jié)合國內(nèi)外學者在自由流狀態(tài)判定方面的研究成果，提出了基于車頭時距的自由行駛狀態(tài)的判定準則，研究分析得出在車頭時距不小于6s的情況下，車輛處于自由行駛狀態(tài)�；谠摐蕜t提取了自由流狀態(tài)下的實測車速數(shù)據(jù)，計算出各調(diào)查路段上的運行速度。 在得到各調(diào)查路段運行速度數(shù)據(jù)的基礎(chǔ)上，分析了公路線形指標對運行速度的影響，研究結(jié)果表明平曲線半徑與公路縱坡這兩個線形指標對運行速度的影響較大，其中小客車運行速度主要受到平曲線半徑的影響，而公路縱坡則對大貨車的運行速度影響較顯著。 為了建立基于道路線形指標的高速公路平縱組合路段運行速度預測模型，論文選取平曲線半徑、公路縱坡以及平曲線偏角這三個線形要素作為影響變量，采用多元線性回歸分析的統(tǒng)計方法分別對小客車和大貨車的運行速度預測模型進行了標定，并對模型的合理性進行了理論分析。 然后，運用模糊邏輯理論對高速公路上平曲線與縱坡組合路段的運行速度進行了研究分析。將平曲線半徑、公路縱坡以及平曲線偏角作為輸入變量，小客車和大貨車的運行速度作為輸出變量，基于模糊統(tǒng)計原理獲得了預測模型所有變量的模糊集合和聚類中心，以及各輸入變量和輸出變量對應(yīng)的隸屬函數(shù)，從而建立了基于模糊邏輯的運行速度預測模型，通過對模型的檢驗與分析最終得出采用模糊邏輯對運行速度進行預測研究其預測結(jié)果同樣可靠。 最后，以未參與模型構(gòu)建的運行速度實測數(shù)據(jù)為基礎(chǔ)，對基于兩種方法的運行速度預測模型的預測結(jié)果進行了對比分析，研究結(jié)果表明，兩種預測模型均可用于預測高速公路平曲線與縱坡組合路段的平均運行速度。
[Abstract]:There are many kinds of factors inducing road traffic accidents, among which poor road alignment is one of the main causes of traffic accidents. In evaluating the continuity, consistency and comfort of highway alignment, the running speed is an important reference standard. As the result of the comprehensive action of various linear indexes, the running speed is studied, and the prediction model of running speed is established. It has important theoretical significance and application value for guiding highway geometric alignment design and subsequent safety evaluation. Based on the actual project and taking the design speed of the expressway as the research object, this paper makes a prediction study on the running speed of the horizontal and longitudinal combination section on the expressway. Firstly, the paper selects Guangdong Guangdong province expressway as the data acquisition site, and formulates the data acquisition and extraction scheme. According to the definition of running speed, free flow traffic condition is the precondition of running speed. Based on the analysis of the relationship between the head-time distance and the measured speed, combined with the research results of the scholars at home and abroad in the determination of the free flow state, the criterion of judging the free driving state based on the head-time distance is put forward. The research and analysis show that the vehicle is in the state of free running when the headspace is not less than 6 s. Based on this criterion, the measured speed data under free flow state are extracted, and the running speed of each section of investigation is calculated. On the basis of obtaining the running speed data of each investigation section, the influence of highway alignment index on running speed is analyzed. The results show that the radius of plane curve and the longitudinal slope of highway have great influence on the running speed. The running speed of passenger cars is mainly affected by the radius of the plane curve, while the longitudinal slope of the highway has a significant effect on the running speed of large freight cars. In order to establish the speed prediction model of highway horizontal and vertical combination section based on road alignment index, this paper selects three linear elements, namely, the radius of the plane curve, the longitudinal slope of the highway and the deflection angle of the horizontal curve, as the influence variables. Using the statistical method of multiple linear regression analysis, the prediction models of the running speed of passenger cars and freight cars are calibrated, and the rationality of the model is analyzed theoretically. Then, using fuzzy logic theory, the running speed of the combination of horizontal curve and longitudinal slope on expressway is studied and analyzed. Taking the radius of plane curve, longitudinal slope of highway and deflection angle of plane curve as input variables, and the running speed of minibus and truck as output variables, the fuzzy set and cluster center of all variables of prediction model are obtained based on fuzzy statistical principle. And the corresponding membership function of each input variable and output variable, thus the speed prediction model based on fuzzy logic is established. Finally, it is concluded that the fuzzy logic is used to predict the running speed and the prediction results are equally reliable through the examination and analysis of the model. Finally, based on the measured data of running speed which is not involved in the construction of the model, the prediction results of the two methods are compared and analyzed. The results show that, The two prediction models can be used to predict the average running speed of the combination of highway plane curve and longitudinal slope.
【學位授予單位】：哈爾濱工業(yè)大學
【學位級別】：碩士
【學位授予年份】：2014
【分類號】：U491

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